Another Huge US Crude Oil Inventory Build -- Up Another 5 Million Bbls -- Despite A Forecast For A 2-Million-Bbl Draw -- December 4, 2018

I will be placing two recent posts in "draft" status -- taking them off the net for now, so that Bakken-specific posts are at "the top" while I'm off the net.

I will re-post those non-Bakken posts later.

US crude oil inventory reports, API: link here, posted, 3:30 p.m. CT. "Surprising build in inventories." Am I missing something here?

• What's so surprising about this? 
• it was reported earlier today that three OPEC countries significantly increased exports last month
• Trump's "bait and switch" on the Iranian sanctions resulted in a huge export glut
• Trump wants gasoline prices to go lower -- Saudi over the bbl with Khashoggi killing -- reported earlier today in Financial Times
• gasoline demand is well off the demand last year at this time 
• the Bakken -- as a proxy for the shale revolution -- is setting all-time production records despite 2,000 wells off-line 
• the Permian is yet to hit its stride
• that build? It was huge. A whopping 5.36 million build 
• forecast: a 2.267 million draw 
• that's a swing of over 7 million bbls -- and in the wrong direction for oil bulls

WTI: after the news -- down a paltry 36 cents though oilprice "oil prices sink" after release of API inventory data; but if EIA confirms a whopping build tomorrow, "Katy, bar the door."

Regular, unleaded gasoline down to $1.83 here in Texas; rarely; generally about $2.09; in our neighborhood, $2.29.

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By The Way, Speaking Of Hyperbole

Is it just me or is all that talk about a huge oil find off Guyana that big a deal? I really don't know. Everyone seems to think it's a big deal. Motley Fool has a story today saying that the Exxon Guyana discovery keeps getting bigger and bigger. I don't know if today's Motley Fool story is a note about a previous discovery or if this is another discovery. Whatever.

By 2025, Exxon says its partnership with Hess and China's CNOOC should be able to produce 750,000 bbls oil per day. North Dakota is coming close to producing twice that much on a daily basis, and its production is significantly constrained. Unfettered, the Bakken could produce over 2 million bopd. And they say the Permian is a whole lot bigger than the Bakken. Which means the Guyana discovery is ... well, maybe not that big in the big scheme of things. Again, I don't know. But it certainly seems "Guyana as an elephant field" is becoming a meme. Or a trope. Or a cliche.

Exxon says the jointly held acreage position off Guyana could hold more than 5 billion bbls of recoverable oil. The Bakken is likely to greatly exceed that. We're just waiting with bated breath for the next USGS survey of the Bakken which seems to be moving with glacial speed.

But it is, what it is.