Thoughts On The Unemployment Rate -- May 4, 2018

Wow, wow, wow. 

Pardon the interruption: WTI is surging: up over 2%. Now up $1.38. Trading very, very close to $70. 

Anyone want to hazard a guess why? For me, it's pretty obvious. One five-letter word.

***************************************

Thoughts On The Unemployment Rate

Updates

May 6, 2018: see first comment. I've also placed that comment at a new post to give it the attention it deserves. 

May 6, 2018:

Original Post  

Now back to what I was doing.

Starting with this link, one can generate this chart, U-6, unemployment, defined as:

U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force.

Labor participation rate from this link:

I think these graphics are important. Comments and questions:

• under previous administrations, when the unemployment rate dropped even 0.1% when the rate was much higher, the network talking heads seemed to fall all over themselves extolling how things were getting better
• under this administration, with "everyone" agreeing that we are at "full employment" and there is no slack for additional workers, the unemployment rate fell not 0.1% but 0.2% and CNBC talking heads practically ignored the significance (if indeed there was any)
• humans seem fixated on numbers; getting to an unemployment rate below 4% is certainly a "psychological" milestone, if not a historic, economic milestone, and yet, CNBC talking heads brushed over it -- in fact, they made sure to note that "new" jobs came in "slightly under expectations" (that was the theme even later when Steve Liesman interviewed a member of the Fed -- why the ho-hum attitude? I thought I had misheard CNBC''s senior analyst when he said the unemployment rate was 3.9% -- really? under 4% after months and months -- and after months and months when talking heads kept expecting the rate to fall below 4% and it didn't -- and the senior analyst seemed to have the same enthusiasm as reporting the sun came up in the east again today
• Steve Liesman and others ask "where will more workers come from" with an unemployment rate of 3.9%? look at the charts above, perhaps?
• why didn't the market crash this morning? the employment number guarantees the Fed will raise rates by the end of June, 2018
• in the big scheme of things, is there really much difference between 67% and 63% when it comes to labor participation rate? How accurate/reproducible is the data? 
• if there is a significant difference between 67% and 63% for labor participation, is there not now significant wiggle room for additional workers to join the labor market?
• with an unemployment rate below 4%, is there really a need for a Bernie-Sanders-full-employment bill? I assume there is if one can't pass a drug urinalysis test in states that have legalized marijuana
• with a U-6 rate of almost 8% and a labor participation rate of only 63%, is there not yet some slack to answer the question raised by Steve Liesman and others (or am I missing something)?
• why is the labor participation rate dropping (assuming there is a significant difference between 67% and 63%)? And why did the participation rate rise slightly after Donald Trump was elected president and then level off?
• do military opportunities have any effect whatsoever on US non-military employment?
• to what extent is the US public school system and community colleges failing to prepare individuals for those skills that guys like Bill Gates and Mark Cuban say we need guest (foreign) workers? Why are foreign countries able to supply those workers (both at the low end -- farming -- and at the high end -- technology) when the US seemingly cannot?
• at the low end, is the US economic safety net too generous?
• at the high end, are public schools, community colleges, and universities failing us?

Anyway, even if CNBC won't, I will via, courtesy of the Drudge Report:

I especially like "Apple all-time high." I completely missed that.