Goldman Sachs forecast for oil: backwardation, WTI prices:
- previously for 2018: $55
- current forecast for 2018: $57.50 (could rise somewhat if OPEC successful at drawing down more than expected
- 2019: $55 (as shale producers respond to better prices)
- 2020: $50
- a record: Money managers' net length in three big crude-oil contracts -- West Texas Intermediate traded on Nymex and the Intercontinental Exchange and the latter's Brent contract -- stood at 989.9 million barrels as of Friday, a record
- OPEC's cuts interplay
- short-cycle production from US shale
- longer-cycle output from Canada and Brazil
- global demand
- result? the 2018 market -- despair on one end; elation on the other
- the range: $20 - $25/bbl or roughly $45 to $65 in terms of WTI
- further gains require catalysts
- OPEC counting heavily on stronger demand or lackluster US production growth
Market: futures look nice.
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
$57.16↓ | 12/5/2017 | 12/05/2016 | 12/05/2015 | 12/05/2014 | 12/05/2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Active Rigs | 53 | 39 | 64 | 188 | 191 |
RBN Energy: strong CAPEX boost by ConocoPhillips headlines early 2018 guidance.
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