The Market And Energy Page, T+208 -- August 16, 2017; 3Q17 GDP Forecast At 3.7%

OPEC cut? LOL. See this post: http://peakoilbarrel.com/opec-july-production-data/. OPEC output for every month this year except April actually exceeded that of a year ago...they're measuring their "production cuts" from the peak. -- from a reader. See this post for a great graphic. 

Kerfuffle? Saudi Aramco, until recently, had been leaning toward listing on London exchange because reporting requirements were less stringent than the NYSE. Now, there are reports that Saudi Aramco could be leaning toward the NYSE. That made no sense to me. But now Reuters is reporting the likely reason that Aramco could be leaning to the NYSE. The headline: Qatar kerfuffle could tip Aramco to New York. From the story:

Economic boycotts are usually designed to force dramatic change. They deprive enemies of income that can be used to finance armies, feed propaganda machines and sustain populations - with the hope of provoking the target's people to overthrow their leaders. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain have followed much of this playbook since early June in their ostracism of Qatar, which they accuse of financing terrorism.

The four Arab neighbors have cut diplomatic ties and trade links with Doha, and suspended air and shipping routes with the gas-rich nation. They issued a 13-point ultimatum insisting, among other things, that it scale back ties with Iran and muzzle the Al-Jazeera cable network. Thus far, Western companies have not been overtly punished for maintaining their ties with Qatar. And U.S. companies will not be, according to a letter the quartet of nations sent to Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in July.

One exception may be companies who count entities controlled by the Al Thani monarchy, primarily through Qatar's $300 billion-plus sovereign wealth fund, as important shareholders. If so, these regional grievances may alter the trajectory of one of the biggest deals in the history of global capital markets, the planned initial public offering sometime next year of the $2 trillion Saudi Aramco.

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GDP Now

Latest forecast: 3.7 percent — August 15, 2017. Source.

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 3.7 percent on August 15, up from 3.5 percent on August 9.

The forecast of the contribution of personal consumption expenditures to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from 1.91 percentage points to 1.97 percentage points after this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

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Making America Great Again

Trump To Level The Biodiesel Field

From Argus Media:

A surge in imports that hampered the US biodiesel industry for most of 2017 should ease as the US administration appears close to placing import tariffs on Argentinian and Indonesian imports.

The National Biodiesel Board Fair Trade Coalition filed an antidumping and countervailing duty petition on 23 March, alleging those countries' producers receive unfair government subsidies. That has helped those producers dump their product in the US at below fair-market prices, helping them gain about 18pc of market share.

Imports of Argentinian and Indonesian biodiesel surged nearly five-fold from about 327,000t in 2014 to 1.84mn t in 2016. Imports from Argentina during the first half of 2017 have risen by about 61.7pc year-over-year to about 572,000t. About 230,000t, or nearly 40pc, of the 2017 first-half total came in June alone.

The US International Trade Commission (ITC) made a unanimous preliminary determination on 5 May that imports from Argentina and Indonesia injured US biodiesel producers. The US Department of Commerce has twice delayed its preliminary determinations decision, with the latest deadline now being 19 October. Final determinations are due within 75 days of the preliminary determination.