North Dakota Extraction Tax Money At Risk? Poll -- December 19, 2014

Reuters reminds us:

Tumbling U.S. oil markets hit an important if obscure milestone on Thursday, closing for the first time at a price that could trigger a $5.3 billion, two-year tax break for North Dakota oil drillers as soon as next summer.

Under a decades-old law, the state at the heart of the U.S. shale oil boom would waive its 6.5 percent oil extraction tax once the average monthly price of benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at Cushing, Oklahoma, falls below a certain threshold for five consecutive months.

For next year, that price is $55.08 per barrel. 

So, great poll question: Will North Dakota's oil extraction tax be "waived" before the end of 2015?

• Yes
• No

The end of 2015 is a long way off, so I will pull the poll well before then. I don't want to "bias" any voting, but I'm pretty sure I will be correct with my vote. This is what will be interesting for me: what readers think.

I assume the state calculates the "average" WTI price based on the closing price every day WTI is traded.