Huge! US Crude Oil Inventories Decrease 7.4 Million Bbls -- January 4, 2018; Huge Increase In Distillate Fuel Production (Not Surprising); Billings Exxon Refinery Remains Shut Down

Updates

Later, 12:25 p.m. CT: see first comment --

I am surprised that there has been no mention of the Billings Exxon refinery being shut down due to an internal plant malfunction,around October 25th, disrupting power from the dedicated coke burning power plant next door and necessitating shut down of the entire refining operations.

This refinery normally produces around 62,000 b/d of diesel and other distillates.

Original Post

Pardon the interruption: At this point, 10:18 a.m. CT, it might be interesting to start following ISO New England. Normally by this time of the day, one does not see a spike in electricity demand -- but right now demand and price is spiking, apparently coinciding with Winter Storm Grayson moving into New England. Renewables are actually holding in there (which is a bit surprising), but coal and nuclear power has maxed out. The use of oil, of course, showing no change in pattern, is surging, as is natural gas.

• 12:16 p.m.: $307/MWh

Weekly petroleum report.  Link here for the report.

• US crude oil reserves decreased by 7.4 million bbls
• refineries now up to almost 97% of full operating capacity
• gasoline production decreased, now below 10 million bbls per day (actual: 9.7 million bbls)
• distillate fuel production increased, now solidly above 5 million bbls (actual: 5.6 million bbls)
• distillate fuel product supplied averaged about 4.1 million bbls/day over the last four weeks, up by almost 6% from the same period last year
• motor gasoline supplied averaged about 9.2 million bbls/day over the last four weeks, up by 2.1% from the same period last year
• the gasoline demand graph is posted here; scroll to the bottom of the page when you get to that link

Re-balancing: even with this huge draw, the number of weeks to re-balancing did not drop much in the big scheme of things (assuming I did the math correctly), dropping from 28 weeks to 25 weeks when crude oil reserves will be back to their historic norms. Interestingly enough, the EIA now says "US crude oil inventories are in the middle of the average range for this time of year," which would mean we are re-balanced.

Week	Date	Drawdown	Storage	Weeks to RB
Week 0	Apr 26, 2017		529.0	180
Week 1	May 3, 2017	0.9	528.0	198
Week 2	May 10, 2017	6	522.0	50
Week 3	May 17, 2017	1.8	520.2	59
Week 4	May 24, 2017	4.4	515.8	51
Week 5	May 31, 2017	6.4	509.9	41
Week 6	June 7, 2017	-3.3	513.2	60
Week 7	June 14, 2017	1.7	511.5	57
Week 8	June 21, 2017	2.5	509.0	62
Week 9	June 28, 2017	-0.2	509.2	71
Week 10	July 6, 2017	6.3	502.9	58
Week 11	July 12, 2017	7.6	495.3	47
Week 12	July 19, 2017	4.7	490.6	43
Week 13	July 26, 2017	7.2	483.4	38
Week 14	August 2, 2017	1.5	481.9	44
Week 15	August 9, 2017	6.5	475.4	35
Week 16	August 16, 2017	8.9	466.5	30
Week 17	August 23, 2017	3.3	463.2	29
Week 18	August 30, 2017	5.4	457.8	27
Week 19	September 7, 2017	-4.6	462.4	32
Week 20	September 13, 2017	-5.9	468.2	39
Week 21	September 20, 2017	-4.6	472.8	46
Week 22	September 27, 2017	1.8	471.0	46
Week 23	October 4, 2017	6.0	465.0	41
Week 24	October 12, 2017	2.8	462.2	40
Week 25	October 18, 2017	5.7	456.5	37
Week 26	October 25, 2017	-0.9	457.3	39
Week 27	November 1, 2017	2.4	454.9	38
Week 28	November 8, 2017	-2.2	457.1	42
Week 29	November 15, 2017	1.9	459.0	43
Week 30	November 22, 2017	1.9	457.1	42
Week 31	November 29, 2017	3.4	453.7	41
Week 32	December 6, 2017	5.6	448.1	37
Week 33	December 13, 2017	5.1	443.0	36
Week 34	December 20, 2017	6.5	436.5	30
Week 35	December 28, 2017	4.6	431.9	28
Week 36	January 4, 2018	7.4	424.5	25