The Trillion-Dollar Mistake Worsens For Saudi Arabia -- March 29, 2016

Financial Times is reporting:

Saudi Arabia lost market share in more than half of the most important countries it sold crude to in the past three years, even as the kingdom increased output to record levels.

The world’s biggest oil exporter lost ground to rivals in nine out of 15 top markets between 2013 and 2015, including China, South Africa and the US, according to an analysis of customs data.

Saudi Arabia set itself a goal in late 2014 of maintaining its crude market share amid a glut that prompted a collapse in oil prices, but the imports data compiled by FGE, an energy consultancy, suggest the country’s strategy suffered setbacks in some of its key customer countries last year.

Other data show that Saudi Arabia achieved a limited increase in global market share in 2015 compared to 2014, although last year’s figure was lower than that recorded in 2013.
“Saudi Arabia has had a very difficult time selling oil in this environment,” says Ed Morse, an analyst at Citigroup. “Its rivals are going into a very crowded market in a very aggressive way.”

Oil producers including Russia and Iraq are putting pressure on Saudi Arabia in markets it regards as strategically important trading partners.

Saudi Arabia signalled a shift in its market share strategy last month by reaching a provisional agreement with Russia and some other producers to cap output at January levels.

This deal partly reflects the damaging impact of falling oil prices on producer economies, including Saudi Arabia.

Brent crude, the international oil benchmark which plunged to a 13-year low of less than $30 a barrel in January, has dropped from a peak of $115 in mid-2014 to $39.88 in late afternoon trading on Monday.

Brent started falling in the second half of 2014 due to swelling global oil supplies led by the US shale boom.

It then plunged after the Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi led a landmark decision by Opec, the producers’ cartel, in November 2014 not to cut crude output to support prices.

Much more at the link.  

Now look at this, from the same article:

Saudi Aramco, the state-controlled energy company that is implementing the oil ministry’s strategy, has raised production to more than 10m barrels a day since the Opec meeting. Saudi exports have held above 7m b/d.

I see that boilerplate statement that Saudi Arabia "has raised production to more than 10 million bbls per day" since that OPEC meeting in October, 2014. In the EIA graph below, Saudi's oil production has never dropped below 11 million bbls/day, and back in 2012 appears to have hit a record 12.5 million bopd.