Tuesday, October 26, 2021

Let's See What Sticks -- October 26, 2021

The two biggest investing mistakes I've made in the past few years:

  • listening to Jamie Dimon opine on Bitcoin; and,
  • listening to the Montana Skeptic re: Tesla.

Is anyone paying attention? Source.

The twitter links and source articles from those links.

Coal:

  • Arch: last dividend was paid 3/13/20 = 50 cents. Now announces a 25-cent dividend payable 12/15/21; record date, 11/30/21. Link and link.

Inflation:

  • countries where central banks have raised rates: highest inflation rates.
  • US: nowhere near raising rates
  • Spain: 23% increase in producer prices "overnight"; Europe's inflation pressures are formidable and show no sign of abating; they remember Germany's hyperinflation; source.

Janet Yellen:

  • will impose taxes on coins earned by Mario. Source.
  • "won't be a coin tax, but rather a tax on those little gold things that Mario jumps for"

Elon Musk:

Tesla:

  • really, really ... amazing
  • "everyone" says they missed but still won't buy;
  • market value exceeds the entire global auto industry PLUS Uber, Lyft, Progressive, Geico (if public), Allstate, Duke Energy and Dominion energy
  • shares, TSLA:
    • traded at $900 yesterday
    • today trading at $1,000
    • target: $1200
  • Hertz deal: analyst has it all wrong; using "old textbook" to analyze deal; 
  • TSLA trades above $1,000: announces cure for cancer and HIV at the same time from its auto driving system. Source.

US equity markets:

  • futures suggest another good day for those "long" and fully invested
  • Big Oil about to post highest cash flow in 13+ years; source.

Rally on:

  • US natural gas prices extend rally; back above $6 / MMbtu; highest level in three weeks;
  • US natural gas prices: a hair away from a 13-year high; source.
  • "a hair"? how many transistors could Apple fit on the width of a human hair?

Medicare and "open season":

  • does anyone really understand any of this

Obamacare and "open season":

  • no one understands this

US oil in storage:

  • whatever is reported today / tomorrow, 1.1 million of those bbls came directly from the SPR. Source.

Hedging:

Permian:

  • small, private operators take center stage; source.

EVs:

  • winner: Ford
  • if I were to invest in EVs, my first choice? Ford
  • I wasn't alive then, but when the Model A and Model T were released, other than Ford was there any other competitor to Ford; is Tesla in the same spot as Ford when it was releasing the Model A and Model T? I don't know. Asking for 9,465 readers.

Natural gas:

  • it's just beginning;
  • benchmark Henry Hub prices are up 15% in the last two days; not even winter yet;
  • back above $6 / MMbtu; source. 
    • Javier Blas swims upstream: prefers mBTU rather than MMbtu -- used to confuse me; no more;
  • let's go Brandon

Blue hydrogen:

Unions:

Recession:

  • yeah, likely, but different this time

Coal:

  • China and Australia talking

Cotton:

  • China importing US cotton
  • US cotton + shipping < cost of producing cotton in own country (China)
  • think about it: all those container ships sailing back empty to China

Bitcoin:

  • "everyone" says they missed it but still won't buy;

Saudi Arabia:

  • if one doesn't consider the very likely possibility that KSA has no swing capacity, is not reading the tea leaves;
  • more and more hints from Saudi Arabia they are at their max when it comes to crude oil, at least in short term;
  • people's exhibit #1; 
  • people's exhibit #2; if Bloomberg reports it, it must be true;
  • people's exhibit #3: Saudi-Kuwait Neutral Zone facing technical issues; maximum output still far off. Source. An amazing story. Full story at Platts.
  • huge demand for fresh water
  • needs fresh water to frack -- they wouldn't be going their route if they didn't have to
  • Red Sea drilling
  • pivots to natural gas

XOM, source, 2020:

  • headcount: 72,000
  • look at this: average length of service -- 30 years
  • estimated workforce savings: $1 billion to $2 billion per year
  • "strange way to make money"

Green salad choice?

  • green cabbage beats iceberg lettuce; no contest;

North By Northwest:

  • would the ending have been different had this been Mount Rushmore? Asking for Cary Grant, Eva Marie Saint. and Leo G. Carroll.
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