A reader sent me a random note regarding ports on the US eastern seaboard.
My not-ready-for-prime-time reply:
This is quite coincidental. I can't recall but I think I posted a note on the blog (if I didn't post it there, I sent the note to [a reader]; I honestly don't remember) ... regarding the beneficiary of any opening of the ports with the choke points.Historically, there is always huge competition between "trucking" and "railroads."I never knew how intense that competition was until I started the blog some years ago.Right now, the trucking industry is in a world of pain -- no drivers. [As soon as that was noted in the press, one should have looked at railroads for investment considerations; I'm somewhat surprised the CNBC talking heads never noted this. Huge miss on their part. Shame, shame.]When the trucking industry is unable to meet demand, the trains benefit.UNP has had a huge, huge run-up over the past few days, despite the high cost of diesel.Investors are betting that the choke points at the ports will be resolved sooner or later; and if the auto industry takes off in CY2022, the railroads will be a huge beneficiary.In addition, crude-by-rail, and there's a possibility, though remote, that the US will again become a huge exporter of coal if China / Asia ends up in dire energy straits.I will be curious if Florida can open its ports. We'll see.Folks will immediately opine that the sailing time through the Panama Canal will be intolerable. Give me a break. They are spending two months anchored off-shore Californa, and it will only be an extra month -- if that long -- to get to Florida.All those containers headed to California will be railroaded from East Coast to California. There are only two RRs that go into California: UNP and Burlington Northern (owned by Warren Buffett).Did I forget anything?
Oh, yes, Resident Biden is a huge fan of railroads. Probably won't sign off on anything that hurts the trains.
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