Thursday, November 9, 2017 -- China To Spend $83 Billion In Shale Gas Development In West Virginia

The market: futures suggest traders are seeing something they don't like -- or just taking some profits. 
Active rigs:

$56.99→	11/9/2017	11/09/2016	11/09/2015	11/09/2014	11/09/2013
Active Rigs	52	37	65	193	182

RBN Energy: northeast gas pipeline takeaway capacity set to balloon this winter. (Archived with great graphic.)

Marcellus/Utica natural gas production volumes this past Saturday (November 4) set a record high of more than 23 Bcf/d, according to pipeline flow data. As a result, overall Northeast production flows on the same day also posted a milestone, with volumes approaching a record 25.3 Bcf/d. This is up ~2.7 Bcf/d from where they started the year. These gains have been made possible because of the numerous pipeline projects that have added takeaway capacity from the region, about 2.4 Bcf/d since last winter alone. Moreover, another ~4.3 Bcf/d in new takeaway capacity either was approved for in-service last week or is expected online before March 2018. Even at partial utilization through the winter, that’s a lot of capacity that could flood the market with new supply. Where is all that capacity headed? In today’s blog, we look at recent and upcoming capacity additions that will affect the gas market this winter season.

At this time last winter, Northeast gas production had just recovered from its seasonal dip that happens in the fall “shoulder season” — the time of the year when summer cooling demand is waning and winter heating demand has yet to show up. After an initial bump in January and February 2016 to more than 20 Bcf/d, gas production flows from the region, based on pipeline flow data from our friends at Genscape, pulled back to around 19.7 Bcf/d and hung right around there for much of the year. Then, storage constraints and mild demand, along with maintenance-related pipeline outages, pushed volumes down to 19 Bcf/d in October 2016. By November, however, they had recovered to that February 2016 level just above 20 Bcf/d, and over the winter months, through March 2017, regional production grew by a little more than 500 MMcf/d to about 20.8 Bcf/d. That compares to a 2.0-Bcf/d uptick in production during the winter of 2015-16 and more than 1.0 Bcf/d the year before that in the winter of 2014-15.

Fake news: lead story at Yahoo!Finance right now, a Bloomberg story with this headline -- "Trump's $250 billion China haul is big number, little substance." We are barely into the start of the visit, and already that conclusion.

Real news: The Bloomberg article failed to mention this story in ibttimes: Trump's China visit: Boeing inks $37 billion deal to sell 300 aircraft. Three hundred aircraft. Also, later, this story: China Energy, the world’s leading power company, announced Thursday it plans to spend more than $83 billion on shale gas and chemical projects in West Virginia, a deal that represents a massive foreign investment in American energy. A memorandum of understanding between the the company and American officials was signed as President Trump meets with his Chinese counterpart. The agreement is part of a broader package of deals signed between the two nations totaling well over $200 billion. The investment is expected to stretch over two decades. The $87 billion will be spent on power generation efforts, chemical manufacturing facilities and liquefied natural gas storage projects.

More real news: Eurozone economy seen expanding at fastest pace in a decade -- WSJ. I was disappointed to see the pathetic GDP numbers that are being touted as "huge expansion". Maybe all this talk of "fastest expansion in EU" is more fake news. Or, I suppose, it depends on how one sees "fastest pace."

The European Union said Thursday that it is poised to beat 2017 economic growth expectations, with strong private consumption and the global recovery propelling the fastest pace of eurozone expansion in a decade.

The EU’s regular forecast said gross domestic product in the 19-member eurozone would grow by 2.2% in 2017, beating its expectation of 1.7% in the previous forecast in May.

Tax cut update: tea leaves suggest nothing will happen this year, but at least we are not talking about tax increases which would be the story if Hillary, Chuck, Nancy and Pocahontas were in charge.

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If Necessary, The Bakken Can Grow By 100,000 Bbbls / Day On A Monthly Basis -- NDIC

Link here.

"We should see oil production in a growth mode, 10-15,000 b/d month on month is where we expect to be," Helms said, adding that the North Dakota shale industry would need WTI at US$60 a barrel to start expanding production beyond the 1.1-million-bpd mark. "That's really the magic number that really begins to push us to 1.6 or 2 mil b/d." -- Lynn Helms.

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Total Primary Energy Demand To Increase By 35% -- OPEC

From Rigzone:

Total primary energy demand is set to increase by 35 percent in the period to 2040, according to the 2017 OPEC World Oil Outlook report.

The rise, which will be driven by expansion in developing countries, will see demand grow from 276 million barrels of oil equivalent per day to 372 MMboepd.

Within the grouping of developing countries, India and China are the two nations with the largest additional energy demand over the forecast period, both in the range of 22 to 23 MMboepd, the report stated.

Long-term oil demand has been revised upward by 1.7 million barrels of oil per day, compared to WOO 2016, with total demand at over 111 MMbopd by 2040, and oil is expected to remain the fuel with the largest share in the energy mix throughout the period.

The report also forecasts that the demand for OPEC crude is anticipated to expand to 41.4 MMbopd by 2040 and US tight oil will peak just after 2025. In the period to 2040, the required global oil sector investment is estimated at $10.5 trillion.

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How Bizarre Will This Get?

Headline from WSJ: prosecutors seek plea deal with Manafort's former son-in-law. Next, I suspect we will see a headline suggesting that Mueller is seeking a plea deal with the wife of a friend of a member of the housekeeping staff  formerly owned by a subsidiary of a company Ross Wilbur owned thirty years ago.

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It's A Centipede: Next Shoe To Fall

No links, but there are rumors out there that Amazon could buy Kohl's. Oh, that's right. I read that in the print copy of Barron's at the library yesterday.