Not Peak Oil; Now It's Peak Oil Demand -- But Not Until At Least 2040 -- November 16, 2016

A reader recently asked a very, very prescient question, it turns out. The reader wondered how forecasts for oil demand would change with the election of Donald Trump as the next president?

Obviously the IEA's new forecast was developed prior to the outcome of the election, but it was still an incredibly prescient question.

From The Wall Street Journal: IEA sees peak oil demand After 2040. Demand will keep rising for longer because there are scant alternatives to oil, says group’s chief Fatih Birol.

Read it and weep:

Global oil demand won’t stop growing before 2040 despite pledges made at the Paris climate change summit last year to cap greenhouse-gas emissions, the head of the International Energy Agency said.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol’s comments have added to a debate over when oil consumption—which has steadily grown for decades—will begin a sustained decline, a change known as peak demand. Royal Dutch Shell PLC’s Chief Financial Officer Simon Henry caused a stir earlier this month when he said the company believes demand for oil could stop growing within the next two decades and as soon as five years.

Mr. Birol said demand will keep rising for longer because there are currently scant alternatives to oil for road freight, aviation and petrochemicals, despite increasing investment in renewable energy.

Reality: global oil demand won’t stop growing before 2040 despite pledges made at the Paris climate change summit last year to cap greenhouse-gas emissions, the head of the International Energy Agency said.