Had Enough? Or Mission Accomplished? Putin Orders Russian Troops Out Of Syria; Will Maintain "Presence" -- March 14, 2016

Updates

March 18, 2016: either in the post below, or in the comment section, or in an e-mail, I suggested that Putin can now come and go into Syria as he wishes, on relatively short notice, probably faster than the Bakken can ramp up. The Wall Street Journal reports:

Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged to continue providing military aid and intelligence to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, declaring that Russian warplanes could redeploy to Syria at any moment.

“If it is needed, Russia is capable of boosting its numbers of its presence in Syria literally in a few hours, depending on the situation, and use the full power of our capabilities,” Mr. Putin said on Thursday in an address to Russian military personnel who served in Syria.

On Monday, Mr. Putin said the bulk of Russian military forces would withdraw from Syria, after a bombing campaign that began at the end of September—a nearly six-month mission the Russian president said had cost some 33 billion rubles ($477.5 million). Russia’s announcement surprised U.S. and Western officials, and raised questions about the direction of nascent peace talks that began in Geneva the same day.

March 16, 2016: Putin's hand grows stronger as right-wing parties advance in Europe. From Bloomberg:

A growing pro-Kremlin contingent in Europe, likely emboldened by Russia's decision to withdraw most of its forces from Syria, is tipping popular sentiment further toward President Vladimir Putin.

The most pressing of the issues vital to Putin is European Union sanctions against Russia, introduced in the wake of Moscow's intervention in Ukraine in 2014. It’s hard to say whether the EU can preserve unity on the subject for much longer, said Petras Vaitekūnas, the former Lithuanian foreign minister, who advises the Ukrainian Security Council.

“I expect big problems with that, and with our ability to repulse Putin’s onslaught,” he said.

Ten days ago, yet another far-right party supporting Russia gained a foothold in an EU country, this time Slovakia. People’s Party, Our Slovakia won 8% of the vote in national elections, joining a burgeoning club including Hungary’s Jobbik, Greece’s Golden Dawn and Marine Le Pen’s National Front in France.

March 15, 2016: The Los Angeles Times has an op-ed with the headline -- how Putin beat Obama in Syria. 

The entire world was surprised when, at the end of September 2015, Vladimir Putin suddenly started moving Russian aircraft, tanks and troops into Syria.

At the time, President Obama predicted the Russian intervention would fail.

"An attempt by Russia and Iran to prop up [Syrian President Bashar] Assad and try to pacify the population is just going to get them stuck in a quagmire and it won't work," Obama said.

This week, the world is equally dumbfounded by the Russian president's announcement that he is withdrawing the "main part" of his forces in Syria.

Obama tries to wave away what Putin has done in Syria and Ukraine: "The fact that he invades Crimea or is trying to prop up Assad doesn't suddenly make him a player. You don't see him in any of these meetings out here helping to shape the agenda. For that matter, there's not a G20 meeting where the Russians set the agenda around any of the issues that are important."

It's telling that Obama thinks that the only thing that matters is the agenda at international gab-fests. That's because the president, like most European heads of state, lives in a 21st century, post-power world where international law is more meaningful than brute force. Putin, by contrast, inhabits a 19th century, Realpolitik world where strongmen act to advance their own interests with scant regard for the feelings of other states, much less of multilateral institutions such as the G20 or the United Nations.

In the clash between these two incompatible visions of the world, there is no doubt which one is winning: From Crimea to Syria, Putin is rewriting the rules of the international game in his favor.

In the case of Syria, Putin's objectives are two-fold. First, he wants to ensure that Assad, a longtime Russian ally (and buyer of Russian weapons), is not toppled. Last fall, rebel forces were advancing and threatening Assad's grip on power. No longer. The Russian intervention was ostensibly supposed to attack Islamic State. In fact, some 90% of Russian sorties have been directed not at its strongholds but at more moderate rebel groups backed by the United States. This has enabled Assad to regain part of Aleppo province and to consolidate his hold on an eastern corridor running from Damascus to the Mediterranean Sea.

Putin's second objective is to reassert Russian power in the world — to make clear that Russia is not isolated after the unlawful invasion of Ukraine and that, in fact, it is ready to challenge American primacy in the Middle East, a region where the U.S. has been the dominant power for decades. That mission also has been accomplished.

As a bonus, Putin even got to show off the capabilities of a new generation of advanced weapons systems, from fighter jets to cruise missiles, that he hopes to sell to eager customers around the world.

Putin can achieve his limited objectives in Syria at much lower cost, and if Assad gets into trouble again, it's easy enough for Putin to send back more Russian forces. He is not, after all, giving up the newly established Russian airbase in Latakia province. It will now be Russia's second military installation abroad, alongside the long-standing Russian port facility nearby at Tartus on the Syrian coast.

March 15, 2016: The WSJ argues that Putin accomplished his mission in Syria -- 

When Russia began its bombing campaign in Syria last year, the move provoked outrage in Washington and warnings from the White House that Russia faced a quagmire.

But President Vladimir Putin’s announcement that he would draw down some forces this week signaled his determination to skirt such a predicament. After five months of bombing in Syria, Kremlin watchers say, Russia has accomplished what it set out to do.

Russia has long said it wants to avoid a Libya-like scenario in Syria, where the toppling of a dictator allowed Islamic State to use the power vacuum to build up a force of several thousand fighters there. Mr. Putin argued that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is the most effective tool for fighting jihadist terrorism in Syria—whatever the West may think of Mr. Assad’s human- rights record.

A drawdown of Russian forces is a signal that Mr. Putin believes that, for now, Mr. Assad’s future is ensured. The Kremlin will certainly continue to support him, manning Russian military bases and carrying out missions at the request of the Syrian government, said Ivan Safranchuk, a political-science professor at Moscow State Institute of International Relations.

“I think that Russia’s goals are mainly achieved,” he said. “The regime has survived, it doesn’t control all the territory of Syria, but there are no existential threats to the regime anymore.”

Original Post

Reuters is reporting:

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday he was instructing his armed forces to start pulling out of Syria, over five months after he ordered the launch of a military operation that shored up his ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Putin, at a meeting in the Kremlin with his defense and foreign ministers, said Russian military forces in Syria had largely fulfilled their objectives and ordered an intensification of Russia's diplomatic efforts to broker a peace deal in the country.

But the Russian leader signaled Moscow would keep a military presence: he did not give a deadline for the completion of the withdrawal and said Russian forces would stay on at the port of Tartous and at the Hmeymim airbase in Syria's Latakia province.