Does This Look Like A Recession? July 3, 2023

Locator: 45881ECON.  

The results are not all in yet, but ... does this look like we're in a "mild recession" (Charlie Munger) or a pre-recession? Asking for Alexa.

Re-posting.

Locator: 45874AUTO.

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Stellantis 

Pricing, link here:

Link here.

Higher sales of the Chrysler Pacifica minivan and Jeep Compass and Dodge Durango SUVs pushed Stellantis’ second-quarter U.S. new vehicle sales up 6.4% from a year earlier. The uptick is another sign of demand for new vehicles rebounding, as inventories of cars and trucks improve from historically low levels during the coronavirus pandemic and supply chain problems. [Those in bold are high-end models.]

Stellantis’ sales increase is expected to be among the lowest of the second quarter, according to auto industry forecasters who project industry sales to have increased 16% to 18% during that time compared with a year earlier.

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Rivian

RIVN: shares surges 2Q23 sales come in better than forecast.

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American Legacy: Ford vs Chevy

Ford vs Chevy, 1Q23: link here.

• y/y -- cars sold:
• Chevy: up 16%
• Ford: up 11%
• Tesla: up 83%
• total vehicles sold in 1Q23:
• Chevy: 398,141
• Ford: 456,972
• Tesla: 422,900 (in 2Q23: 466,140)
  

All car sales here: link here.

Tesla: update here.

Market:

• Tesla: $820 billion
• Ford: $60 billion, pays 4%
• GMC: $53 billion, pays 1%

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More, pending.

Forbes, US auto sales will likely gain in June, 2023, on bigger inventory, pent-up demand.

• the large sales increase vs. a year ago is due to pent-up consumer demand, a modest return to incentives, and a bigger inventory of new cars and trucks, as the auto industry gradually recovers from a shortage of computer chips, 
• this is why JPow raising rates will make things worse:
• S&P Global Mobility predicts new, light-vehicle sales volume in June to reach 1.38 million units. That would be an increase of 17% compared with June 2022. For the second quarter, its forecast is about 4.1 million units, up 16.5%. For the first half, that would mean sales of 7.7 million, up about 12%. 
• Edmunds had a similar estimate for the second quarter of about 4 million, up 16.1%. 
• automakers in the U.S. market report quarterly sales on Wednesday, July 5.

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Sell In May, Go Away