Locator: 49248ENERGY.
From Alison Ritter's newsletter: original source here.
Surging natural gas turbine costs are not only increasing the price of gas-powered electricity but also making wind and solar energy more expensive, according to a new analysis by Isaac Orr and Mitch Rolling, self-styled "Energy Bad Boys" on Substack known for their blunt takes on energy policy.
The duo’s report highlights how the cost of building new combined cycle (CC) natural gas plants has nearly tripled, with capital costs rising from $824-$875 per kilowatt (kW) to $2.2-$2.5 million per megawatt, per Utility Dive. This spike drives the levelized cost of electricity for CC plants to $49.22 per megawatt-hour (MWh) at the high end, a 70% jump from $29.01 at lower capital costs. Combustion turbine plants face similar increases, with 2025 costs projected at $728-$1,544 per kW, up from $562 in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Rising natural gas prices, expected to hit $4.90 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) by 2026, further inflate costs. These increases ripple into wind and solar systems, which rely on gas for backup generation when renewables falter. The authors’ model, building on their “Baseload Solar Beatdown” study, shows a 50% solar-plus-storage portfolio is 15% costlier with higher gas prices.
“Wind and solar advocates cheer rising gas costs, but they’re missing the bigger picture: their systems need gas backup, and pricier gas means pricier renewables,” Orr said. “Pushing for net-zero mandates without reliable dispatchable power is a recipe for unaffordable electricity.”
The report argues that keeping existing coal and nuclear plants online is more cost-effective than building new gas, wind, or solar infrastructure. Existing coal plants average $37.45 per MWh, and nuclear plants $28.38, often cheaper than new gas at elevated costs.
