Wednesday, June 21, 2023

Debt -- GDP -- Housing -- Investing -- Market -- June 21, 2023

Locator: 44992ECON.  

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Debt - GDP

A lot of story lines in the following.

Depending which set of glasses / lenses / filter one is using, determines the story lines:

  • political filter
    • GOP's
    • dems'
  • economic filter
  • investing filter
  • Krugman's filter -- best filter for looking at this data, seriously.
  • personal bias filter
  • the MSNBC filter
  • the Fox News filter
  • the oily-stained Bakken filter

UK:

  • sets record.
    • debt = 100.1% of GDP
  • inflation, rose again, remains over 8%

US:

  • recent:
    • debt = 116.1% of GDP; most recent quarter;
    • debt = 123.4% of GDP; 4Q22;
    • debt = 123.6% of GDP; 3Q22
  • inflation falling, and now trending toward 4%
  • historical
    • all-time high: 132.4% in March, 2021; President Donald Trump (yup) left office January, 2021
    • record low, 31.8%, September, 1974: President Nixon resigns, August, 1974

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Housing

Yesterday's big story. 

Today: it continues.

Liz Sonders, link here.

Great, great news for apartment dwellers.

All of those units will require furniture and refrigerators, computers and monitors, furnaces, a/c units; mirrors, and monthly subscriptions to Disney+;
some (many, most) will have dishwashers, washers, dryers, and live-in boyfriends


Personal note: we live in a metropolitan area that is showing huge population growth;
housing is in great demand:
  • we just signed a new 15-month lease (max duration we could get):
  • no increase in any of the add-ons (garage, carport, storage); amenities
  • base rate increased less than 3%; in dollars, we won't even notice increase in monthly rent
  • monthly rent increase less than what I spend at Starbucks each month
  • my hunch: property taxes will easily go up more than 3% on homes

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The Housing Numbers For Last Month

Reposting:

Locator: 44977ECON.   

Housing starts, month/month:

  • May, 2023:
    • forecast: a decrease, estimate -0.1%
    • actual: an astounding +21.7%
  • prior:
    • revised down
    • original was: +2.2% month over month
    • revised: -2.9%

Housing permits, month/month:

  • May, 2023
  • forecast: 0.6%
  • actual: a remarkable 5.2%
  • prior: 
  • no change
  • original was: -1.4%
  • revised: -1.5%

Link here.

Someone needs to "draw" simpler graphs. LOL.

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