Locator: 48747TARIFFS.
Reimposing steep tariffs on tens of dozens of countries around the world, Trump scores a twofer:
And, oh, by the way, he gets to remind Canadians they voted for the wrong guy.
Locator: 48746CVX.
Tag: Hess.
From ChatGPT:
There will be a bidding war between Chord Energy and Harold Hamm. Others who might be interested? XTO (XOM), Devon, possibly Phoenix Capital Group. Just tea leaves. No solid rumors.
Locator: 48745BRK.
Asking ChatGPT -- shares sold since March, 2024:
Between March 2024 and March 2025, Buffett sold approximately 605 million shares of Apple stock, reducing Berkshire’s ownership from about 906 million to 300 million shares—which represents a ~67% reduction in the position value. Since December 2024, the Apple stake remained steady through March 2025.
ChatGPT could do the math -- how much was made / lost but I'm really not interested. Just curious.
If this gets back to its 52-week high:
15 billion shares outstanding.
Locator: 48744PALANTIR.
Link here. And this is just four companies. Moats.
AI runs on:
How much copper will the average Stargate latter data center require. ChatGPT:
Even a single Stargate AI data center requires several thousand tonnes of copper—making it one of the most copper-intensive industrial infrastructures on the planet. When fully scaled, the Stargate initiative could represent a sizeable fraction of global copper consumption.
Also from ChatGPT:
A 100-car freight train loaded with refined copper can carry ~ 9,000 metric tons of copper. That's roughly enough to supply 1 - 2 hyperscale data centers, or ~ 15% of the copper needed for a fu 1.2 GW Stargate site.
Amazon is going to outspend the other three.
Those firms and others plan to boost outlays even more. Morgan Stanley projects $2.9 trillion in spending from 2025 to 2028 on chips, servers and data-center infrastructure. The investments, the bank says, will contribute as much as 0.5% of U.S. gross domestic product growth this year and next.
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Palantir: It's Not A Bubble
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Nvidia About Ready To Post A Home Run
Locator: 48742FAA.
Blackhawk helicopter, near Reagan National Airport, Washington, DC, January 29, 2025 -- Nine Days Or So After Sleepy Joe Left The White House. Sixty-seven fatalities including three on the helicopter.
Locator: 48741APPLE.
Updates
August 1, 1025: Cramer --
Original Post
Note: as soon as I have time I will address these issues:
I can hardly wait to hear Jim Cramer's comments on this story tomorrow (Friday) morning.
From the linked article, so many data points could be reported; it was an incredible quarter, but this paragraph, for me, stood out:
Apple’s Mac business grew the fastest of any of Apple’s units during the June quarter, growing nearly 15% to $8.05 billion in revenue. Apple released updated MacBook Air laptops, its best-selling Mac, just before the quarter started.
ChatGPT prompt:
I'm just curious. I've everything there is to read about Apple's June quarter, 2025, earnings. CNBC was almost giddy about the results. But seriously, what does ChatGPT think about Apple's earnings which were reported today?
ChatGPT replied with all the data that can be found elsewhere. But this was ChatGPT's bottom line:
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Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
Briefly:
Previously posted:
Note: as soon as I have time I will address these issues:
Apple: firing on all cylinders -- CNBC.
A killer quarter for Apple -- CNBC.
Best quarter since 2021 during the lockdown when everyone was buying Apple products because stuck at home.
Not cutting their margins on iPhones; if anything, going the other direction -- CNBC.
Can't wait for Nathan on "Fast Money" to say how bad Apple is doing. Unfortunately, he's not on the panel today.
Apple's
Tim Cook said Apple will "significantly grow" its AI investments. Wtih ~
2 billion active devices -- bringing AI agents natively into that
ecosystem will require a level of inference and training that only
Nvidia stack is positioned to handle today at scale. -- Shay Boloor.
And, no, Apple is not going to acquire Nvidia. LOL. But they could certainly establish some interesting partners. Apple only partners with the cream of the crop.
Apple's Tim Cook said the company is "open" to an acquisition that woud accelerate its AI road map. -- CNBC.
"Fast
Money" host: is doing her best to say negative things about Apple. Same
comments / arguments after every quarter earnings report by Apple.
Watch for short squeeze tomorrow, last day of the trading week.
Someone bought $3 million worth of AAPL calls expiring tomorrow.
up as much as 3% after hours; I assume by this time tomorrow, huge pivot down.
Apple
board being inundated with requests fo fire Tim Cook for not losing
>$100 billion n AI spend while continuing to steal market share in
every category.
These numbers will vary over different sites.
growth:s
numbers:
Locator: 48740AI.
Of those using the internet for search, there are only two groups of people:
Of the group that don't us ChatGPT:
Someday, ChatGPT will own that space, just as Google today, "owns" search.
If one wants to use an automobile analogy or metaphor:
Locator: 48739B.
NOG results, press release:
Locator: 48739B.
WTI: $69.41.
Active rigs: 31.
One new permit:
Locator: 48738AAPL.
Note: as soon as I have time I will address these issues:
Apple: firing on all cylinders -- CNBC.
A killer quarter for Apple -- CNBC.
Best quarter since 2021 during the lockdown when everyone was buying Apple products because stuck at home.
Not cutting their margins on iPhones; if anything, going the other direction -- CNBC.
Can't wait for Nathan on "Fast Money" to say how bad Apple is doing. Unfortunately, he's not on the panel today.
Apple's Tim Cook said Apple will "significantly grow" its AI investments. Wtih ~ 2 billion active devices -- bringing AI agents natively into that ecosystem will require a level of inference and training that only Nvidia stack is positioned to handle today at scale. -- Shay Boloor.
And, no, Apple is not going to acquire Nvidia. LOL. But they could certainly establish some interesting partners. Apple only partners with the cream of the crop.
Apple's Tim Cook said the company is "open" to an acquisition that woud accelerate its AI road map. -- CNBC.
"Fast Money" host: is doing her best to say negative things about Apple. Same comments / arguments after every quarter earnings report by Apple.
Watch for short squeeze tomorrow, last day of the trading week.
Someone bought $3 million worth of AAPL calls expiring tomorrow.
up as much as 3% after hours; I assume by this time tomorrow, huge pivot down.
Apple board being inundated with requests fo fire Tim Cook for not losing >$100 billion n AI spend while continuing to steal market share in every category.
These numbers will vary over different sites.
growth:s
numbers:
Locator: 48734AI.
Chart Industries.
To be acquired by Baker Hughes, link to The WSJ.
The AI summary (the ink at the end of the note below is to The WSJ above.
Quick: what does the AI sector / supercomputer industry need most?
Look at the third bullet above, "Technology Leader."
Baker Huges will acquire Chart Industries by buying all outstanding shares of Chart Industries for $200 in cash.
Locator: 48733ELECTRICITY.
The graphic below is amazing. Take some time to look at it.
First, the graphic only extends out to 2026.
This is electricity demand, which really shouldn't change that much year-to-year ... unless something has changed.
Across the US, the increase in electricity demand is estimated to rise about 5% through 2026.
Texas trending toward 25%. Population growth will account for some of that, but the real growth will be due to AI data centers and supercomputers.
Texas and mid-Atlantic.
Locator: 48732TECH.
Stargate and one of Europe's biggest data centers with 100,000 Nvidia chips. Link here.
Locator: 48731INVESTING.
ChatGPT: one year return, BRK-B vs Ken Fisher's holdings.
Payday for Ken Fisher, most recent data:
Re-posting from December 15, 2024. Link here.
Ken Fisher's list for 2025: list here.
The first column (15) is Ken Fisher's. The second column (10) is my
list as modified from Fisher's, and reduced to ten picks. My list of ten
stocks is not in any particular order; new purchases will be done in
equal amounts.
15. XOM 10. CAT
14. CAT 9. BK
13. JPM 8. WMT
12. META 7. AMD
11. HD 6. AVGO
10. WMT 5. TSM
9. AMD 4. NVDA
8. AVGO 3. MSFT
7. LLY 2. MU
6. TSM 1. LNG
5. GOOG
4. AMZN
3. NVDA
2. MSFT
1. AAPL
Locator: 48728CHATBOTS.
Prompt:
CNBC this morning had incredible stats regarding number of folks using your (ChatGPT) services over the past six months. Congratulations. In terms of number of unique users (monthly), and number of ChatGPT queries on a daily basis what are the numbers. How do these numbers compare with Google's Gemini?
Bottom line:
Look at "daily active users." OMG.
Some think it's going to be a "winner-takes-all," but other suggests there will be many sharing the largess.
I remember in the very early days the competition between Google and Yahoo search. That ended badly for one of those two.
Are we going to se the same thing in the current AI / chatbot search?
What I find amazing: Google Gemini was already "embedded" in everyone's desktop regardless of browser. ChatGPT: one has to actively download a new app, and immediately decide to have an accont requiring a log in or using ChatGPT without a log-in account. Guaranteed: "everyone" will eventually go with a log-in account. Trust me on this one.
Specialty chatbots will flourish but ChatGPT will be the go-to conversational ChatBot.
My hunch: the oil and gas industry will fund its own LLM chatbot to specialize in the oil and gas sector. We may not see that for years, but eventually we will see such a chatbot. If not, shame on the oil and gas sector.
Locator: 48727FORD.
Blame Canadian aluminum tariffs: In 6:40 a.m. CT interview on CNBC with SecTreasury: Ford's losses due to (Canadian) aluminum tariffs, and unlike other pick-up manufacturers, Ford is using aluminum to make their F-series pick-up trucks, according to Sec Bessent. Needs to be fact-checked but that's his take.
Of course, Ford is in talk with the Trump administration. "Everyone" is in talks with the Trump administration on tariffs.
Ford Motor paid out more than $800 million in tariffs last quarter, despite manufacturing most of its vehicles in the U.S.
The tariff bill came from parts imported from outside of the country as well as from fees on steel and aluminum. The hit helped wipe out the company’s net profit, leading to its first quarterly loss since 2023. [NOT UNIQUE TO FORD.]
Executives said they are pressing the Trump administration to lower levies on parts and materials. “They’ve made it clear that Ford as the most American automaker should not be disadvantaged,” finance chief Sherry House said. “We are optimistic.”
The company said tariff-related costs will cut about $2 billion from its annual earnings, more than the $1.5 billion it predicted three months ago.
The company reported a net loss of $29 million, compared with $1.8 billion in net income a year ago. Revenue rose to $50.2 billion, from $47.8 billion a year ago. Ford shares are down 3.4% in after-hours trade.
Tariffs are slicing into profits for automakers around the globe as companies pay higher duties on cars and parts coming from outside of the U.S. The U.S. recently struck tariff-lowering trade deals with Japan, the European Union and the U.K. Such deals advantage rivals such as Toyota and Nissan, Ford said.
Comment: I think Ford is blaming way too much on the tariffs and way too little on their self-imposed problems with decision to go "all EV," although the company has stepped back from that policy for now.
A great prompt:
What's a bigger problem for Ford going forward? Tariffs or losses in the EV division?
Ask ChatGPT and see how ChatGPT answers that question. ChatGPT provided me a long, in-depth answer with lots of data. Here's the bottom line:
I knew it was bad, but look at that bottom line:
Ford’s near‑term survival hinges on managing tariffs, but its future competitiveness depends on turning EV investments into profit.
Near-term survival? Say what? It would be interesting to see the source of that comment.
Locator: 48725B.
Those following the Bakken will recognize many of these names. I was surprised not to see Slawson o the list. Maybe I missed it.
Locator: 48724B.
WTI: $69.69.
New wells:
RBN Energy: strong returns, low costs attract investors and consolidators to mineral / royal firms.
U.S. E&Ps’ strategic shift from growth at any cost to a laser focus on cash flows to fund shareholder returns revitalized their investor base. But that strategy has been challenged as crude oil prices have eroded since their mid-2022 peak, with producers struggling to balance the need to maintain output and the pressure to sustain dividends. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll see how things are going with the oil and gas companies that bear no responsibility for the costs and complications associated with the finding, development and production of hydrocarbons — the entities that own mineral and royalty interests.
We first discussed this industry segment two years ago in Money for Nothing, which provided an extensive overview of mineral and royalty interests, which receive about 20% of the gross revenues generated by oil and gas wells. Figure 1 below illustrates the higher percentage of revenues received by holders of mineral and royalty interests on a barrel of crude priced at $70/bbl. In this example, the working interest holders (left barrel) are responsible for the $12/bbl of finding and development costs (F&D; green section of barrel), the $6.50/bbl of operating and transportation costs (yellow section), and the $9.90/bbl in taxes (orange section), resulting in a net of $41.60/bbl, or 59% of the gross revenue. The mineral/royalty interests on the right, in turn, are responsible only for the $9.90/bbl in taxes, resulting in net revenue of $60.10/bbl, or 86% of gross revenue.
Figure 1. How Crude Oil Proceeds Differ Between Working Interests and Royalty Owners.
Source: Oil & Gas Financial Analytics, LLCBecause they incur little or no production and exploration expenses, it’s no surprise that significantly higher proportions of realized revenues of royalty/mineral trusts (RTs) flow through to the bottom line. As shown in Figure 2 below, Q1 2025 pre-tax operating cash flows (green bar segments in group to far right) and operating income (dark-blue bar segments) for the seven RTs we monitor (Kimbell, Viper, Dorchester, Blackstone, Sitio, Freehold and PrairieSky) were $38.33/boe and $24.62/boe, respectively. That’s 41% and 65%, respectively, higher than the average for our universe of 40 E&P companies (light blue and orange bars). The RTs retained 92% of realized pricing as cash flow and reported 59% of realized pricing as income, compared with 70% and 38%, respectively, for the E&Ps. Only the depreciation, depletion and amortization (DD&A) expenses of RTs ($13.21/boe) exceeded that of E&Ps ($10.92/boe), likely because of the higher acquisition costs by royalty companies.
Locator: 48723MARKET.
Focus on dividends: I can't remember if I posted this earlier. Link here.
So much going on.
FOMO, YOLO. MOJJO.
I think it's two out of three: FOMO and MOJO. We're kind of past YOLO.
In the old days, there was a 10-1 ratio between Dow movement and S&P 500 movement. Right now, in the pre-market, S&P is up almost 64 points.
CVS: pre-market up 7%. Frothy? Irrational exuberance. A phrase coined by Alan Greenspan in 1996 during the dot-com bubble.
META and MSFT: amazing. Will make every investor / trader re-think Trump's policies. Having said that, this is less about Trump's policies and more about the sixth industrial revolution.
Seriously, has anyone ever seen a stock go up $83 (12%) in one day? Or another stock go up $40 in one day, 8%?
CNBC at 5:00 a.m. is raving about ChatGPT. I agree. I use ChatGPT so much I feel embarrassed taking all this free information.
Copper? Wow. What a great opportunity.
Look at SCCO.
Mackezie Financial Corp raises position in SCCO, 27 minutes ago, story was posted.
Link here. Warns on tariffs. Prior to Trump tariffs, the company is bullish on its finances as noted by looking at dividend policy:
In a move that contrasts with its modest sales performance, Southern Copper announced an increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.50 for Q2 2025, with a further increase to $1.80 planned for Q3 2025. This represents a significant increase from the $1.20 paid in Q2 2024 and reflects the company’s commitment to shareholder returns. The company’s annual dividend yield for 2025 is projected at 6.4%, up from 4.6% in 2024 and 5.4% in 2023, making it an attractive option for income-focused investors despite recent stock price volatility.
In the Bakken, some thoughts:
Chord Energy: is it setting itself up for more acquisitions, or is it a target itself.
News out of the US oil patch is not necessarily good over the short term. Because I'm so overweight in oil, I've sworn off new investments in energy, but Chord is hard to ignore. To stay true to my word to not increase overal holdings in oil and gas, I'm selling other oil and gas companies in order to buy more CHRD. For example, I traded my NOG position for CHRD.
Devon: I was ready to suggest that Devon could easily sell off its holdings in the Bakken, but after checking with ChatGPT, that doesn't seem likely. Will hold.
Tech:
F: continues to bother me. Better said, perhaps, "intrigues me." Losing only $22,000 per EV, compared with losing $44,000 per EV last year.
The cash burn is horrendous. If you want to put Ford's cash burn in perspective, ask ChatGPT to compare Ford's cash burn with that of GM's. By one measurement, GM is showing cash-flow positive or some kind of profit on EVs (although lots of smoke and mirrors and we're not being given "clean" numbers. Supposedly GM is looking to turn profit-positive with EVs in 2025 (this year) whereas that won't be true for Ford until 2027 or 2028.
Railroads: I can't help but believe that railroads won't be the huge winners with Trump's policies.
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Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
Briefly:
Locator: 48722B.
Newsom: will raise $18 billion to pay for wildfire slush fund; links everywhere, here's one:
Note: this is not an investment site. See disclaimer at bottom of the page.
The book page: Walter Murch, cinematic history: Suddenly Something Clicked, c. 2025.
Trump’s tariffs:
Ford:
multiple sources; done on the fly; everything needs to be fact-checked --
NVDA: rises; Morgan Stanley makes the case for $200.
MSFT: surges on impressive earnings; on track to join Nvidia in the $4 trillion club; in fact, in after hours trading, MSFT’s market cap did hit $4 trillion. Just last week the experts on CNBC said MSFT was "frothy," "too expensive." Thanks, guys.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $70.23 — whoo-hoo! Breaks through $70. CVX drops 2% during normal hours and another 0.7% after hours — altogether, down over 4% today; down $4.48 for the day.
Active rigs: 31.
Five new permits, #42166 - #42170, inclusive:
Eight permits renewed: XTO (7): Formentera Operations:
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Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
Briefly:
Locator: 48721COPPER.
Updates
July 31, 2025: link here.
Original Post
Does not apply to ore as far as I can tell.
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Tech After Hours
Did not catch the news, but somehow it caught CNBC's attention:
Why did MSFT and META surge after hours?
META's earning report was stunning. Huge numbers. Mark Zuckerberg delivers.
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QCOM
