Distillate Fuel Inventories -- July 24, 2020

A reader suggested I take another look at the EIA weekly petroleum report. Link here. The reader suggested I look at distillate fuel inventories, table 6 at this link. This is the link the reader sent me.

I'll post the narrative and the reader's comments later, but there is so much to do tonight, I have to get the links posted, move on to the next item, and then come back to these.

The "energy data" being reported is truly incredible.

From the EIA weekly petroleum report:

Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.1 million bbls last week and are about 27% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Not only that, except for that spike in 1982, almost forty years ago, the distillate fuel in storage set an all-time record. But there's more to it than that. I will post that at the bottom of this post, something a reader noted.

Here's the graphic.

Hint: go to the linked report, and then note when the peaks and valleys occur in the graphic above.

Table 6 (click on the table to enlarge it, to see the percent change):

Did you note what was most interesting about this "distillate fuel inventory" report? 

From a reader:

Do you see that annual high / low pattern across most of the history of that graph?

Whhen you check the spreadsheet, you'll see that the yearly high most often occurs when heat oil is stockpiled just before midwinter [generally between October and January], while the annual low most often occurs in late springs after cold winters have depleted the heat oil stockpile, or in mid-summer [generally in July], when diesel fuel consumption is strongest... that makes this week's 38-year-high in distillate inventories all the more remarkable.

To repeat: not only did this record high eclipse every past high (since 1983) but it occurred in the middle of summer when it should have been at a low, based on historical patterns.

Now, the $64,000 question: why?

It may be counterintutive but I think I can provide at least one reason. But I won't post it, at risk of looking like a fool, but I bet I'm correct.