Come On, Economy -- October 31, 2019

First things first: Washington Nationals.

Economy:

• energy: dirt cheap, compared to rest of the world
• interest rates: free money
• corporate taxes: way down
• and yet, as good as earnings "seem" to be ...
• and, GDP at 1.9% ....
• should we be worried?

Mini-fracking boom: catchy headline, but haven't read the article. Consider the source.

Texas economy: remember that story -- I did not post it -- that the Texas economy was fragile; concerns rising as Permian faltering. Talk radio this morning: a bunch of baloney. Oil prices not a concern.  I had the same thoughts while reading the article. If one connects the dots, this appears to be part of a "Hillary war room" to turn Texas blue.

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Back to the Bakken

Flaring: companies looking to invest billions in North Dakota to "manage" the flaring issue. Link to The Williston Herald. Recommend archiving. Details here.


Active rigs:

$54.66	10/31/2019	10/31/2018	10/31/2017	10/31/2016	10/31/2015
Active Rigs	60	69	53	34	70

No wells coming off the confidential list today.

RBN Energy: don't bank on a boring propane market this winter.

U.S. propane production has been on the rise for most of 2019, but propane consumption by steam crackers has been reined in by poor economics, and propane exports have been constrained by export-capacity shortfalls. That’s led to a big buildup in propane inventories, which stand at near-record levels as the market prepares for a winter heating season that is forecasted to be milder than normal. So we’re in for only a modest draw on propane stocks between now and spring, right? Not necessarily. There’s change in the air regarding propane supply, cracker demand and export capacity and, as we learned in the balmy winter of 2016-17, the U.S. propane market isn’t nearly as dependent on the weather as it used to be. Today, we assess recent market developments and explains why a big decline in propane stocks is a real possibility.

Propane is an NGL purity product that has two primary uses: as a fuel (mostly for heating, but also for cooking and crop drying, and occasionally for cars, trucks and buses) or as a feedstock for petrochemical plants (steam crackers to make ethylene, or propane dehydrogenation -- PDH -- plants to make propylene). Propane also has two primary sources of supply: refineries and natural gas processing plants, the latter of which separate out mixed NGLs from natural gas streams. These mixed NGLs from processing plants (also known as y-grade) then are sent to fractionators, where y-grade is divvied up into what are called “purity” products (ethane, propane, normal butane, isobutane and natural gasoline). The Shale Revolution has enabled the U.S. to produce more than enough propane to meet its own heating and petchem needs, and to become a major exporter of propane.

Come On Eileen, Dexy's Midnight Runners