Monday, October 16, 2017

The Energy And Market Page, T+268 -- October 16, 2017

Saudi vs the Bakken: a reader sent this note accompanying the linked story over at Reuters:
This shows the impact of exports from the US is hurting Saudi and Russia.  They both need above $60 oil and they can only get that by less production.  Now US is increasing market share and taking it from the Middle East.
The big tankers make it profitable to seize the day and the Panama Canal.  Now first orders will soon be arriving in India.  Huge growth potential.
The story linked above: Asia oil buyers turn to US in hunt for "cheap" supply.
Asia is set to ramp up crude oil imports from the United States in late 2017 and early next year, with buyers searching out cheap supplies after hurricanes hit U.S. demand for the commodity at a time of rising production in the country.  
As many as 11 tankers, partly or fully laden with U.S. crude, are due to arrive in Asia in November, with another 12 to load oil in the United States later in October and November before sailing for Asia.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude benchmark stands at its largest discount in years against the Atlantic Basin’s Brent, with local appetite curbed as U.S. refineries are still pushing to get back on track in the wake of hurricanes such as Harvey.
The price-spread between the two crudes had already pushed U.S. crude exports to a record 1.98 million barrels per day by late September (2017).
Mike Filloon: summary over at SeekingAlpha:
  • enhanced completions are improving production per foot in all US unconventional plays
  • increased production more than offsets increased costs, motivating operators to shift to these designs over the next 12 months
  • the shift to enhanced completions will tilt operator economics to the positive along with E&P stock prices
  • operators using fewer enhanced completions today, will benefit more from the change.
  • we expect US production to increase at $55/bbl WTI and decline below $50/bbl
  • the Bakken is the beneficiary of significant pessimism based on differentials and taxes. Enhanced completions are performing well, even far away from the Nesson Anticline. After 19 months, all enhanced completions average a profit. It is still not the best play, but it can produce at $50 wellhead prices. The results can be found here (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4104434-hartstreet-llc-new-bakken-well-design-viability-todays-oil-price -- dated September 6, 2017)
  • the Bakken core shows an increase in production over the play as a whole. North Dakota locations are not spaced as far apart as operators focus on higher pressured areas, but enhanced completions seem to show production to the west will increase as oil prices move higher. The analysis of the Bakken core can be found here (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4109466-hartstreet-enhanced-completions-bakken-cap-upside-uso -- dated September 26, 2017). We did a more comprehensive analysis in North Dakota with respect to changes in well design. There is additional data on stages, proppant and fluids.
Heard in the Bakken: mineral owners are starting to get some really huge royalty checks, and this has little to do with the price of oil.

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Re-posting: Investors: making America great again:



Market: all three indices hit new highs? Not sure, but most likely. NYSE with198 issues hitting new highs, including BRK-B (whoo-hoo); CAT, CVX (whoo-hoo); D. R. Horton; JPM; KBR; McDonald's; NRG; Oasis Midstream Partners;
  • the Dow surged 85 points but TSLA was down almost 1.5%;  
  • AAPL did nicely but did not hit a new high; up almost 3%;
  • T is bouncing off some recent lows
  • there were 26 NYSE issues hitting new lows; 
Dow 30 closed just under 23,000: at 22,957.

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