Saturday, July 21, 2012

At ISA: Bakken Tight-Oil Output Could Surpass Iraq Oil Production

Great weekend reading regarding coal from Independent Stock Analysis.  I don't know how JJ_Butler@ISA does it, but, wow, I've never seen so many great links to so many articles on coal and oil.  And natural gas. It will be interesting to see if we look back on 2011 to 2021 as the "lost decade" or the decade of energy transformation.

Coal
The subject that caught my interest was air conditioning: huge demand for coal going forward with China just starting to get the passion for air conditioning. As noted at one of the links, solar and wind cannot possibly provide the electricity that would be needed. The math (geographic area of the earth/capital costs) just does not work out. I blogged about that more than two years ago. 

ISA has three parts on coal today:

Oil
Most interesting today at ISA are the energy links regarding oil, particularly the teasers about Bakken oil production surpassing the 2nd and 3rd largest producers in OPEC. Unfortunately, it appears to get to the source of the most intriguing article one requires a paid subscription, but based on the headline, and the teaser, it looks like "Bakken tight-oil production" could surpass Iraqi production in 2020 if oil prices stay above $70. Some caution, however, without seeing the entire article, I'm not sure if they are talking about North Dakota Bakken alone surpassing Iraqi production, or all "Bakken-like" unconventional oil produced by the US.

I haven't read this article in its entirety, but the teaser is intriguing, and it appears the article's them is this: without a network of natural gas filling stations, the switch to natural gas is a long ways off:
Natural gas vehicles in your garage are not coming anytime soon.  The $2.3 million government grant is a farce.  Business Week
I don't know if the article talks about the initiatives private companies have taken with natural gas fueling corridors for trucks in the western United States.

Anyway, lots of good stuff to read.
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2 comments:

  1. JJ ButlerJuly 21, 2012 at 9:07 AM

    Bruce,
    I understand the "Bakken tight-oil production" reference to to mean all horizontal drilling. The Bakken along with the Eagle Ford (which looks to surpass Bakken production next year), Mississippi Lime, Utica and a host of Permian plays among others. As you know, I believe the speed of the ramp will be dictated by price; a $70 price deck will slow activity and $110 oil will blow away expectations. And thanks for the props!
    ~JJ

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    Replies
    1. Bruce OksolJuly 21, 2012 at 9:16 AM

      That's what I thought, too: the entire "Bakken-like" unconventional oil production in US, not just North Dakota. Thank you for clarifying.

      And, by the way, I am serious. You really have some great links.

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