Good News: Price of Oil Will Hold Relatively Steady Through 2035. It May Even Fall in Price

That's what the US government says (Energy Information Administration).

The EIA, according to wikipedia, is the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.

The link is here. The source document is here -- this is the government's 12-page PDF document.

The graph has an upper estimate, a lower estimate, and an "average" estimate.

The "average" estimate, or the consensus estimate, shows that "we" don't hit $100 oil until 2015, with a steady rise from $60 to $100 between 2009 and 2015. And from there, a nice smooth increase to $125 in 2035. So, it looks like it's safe to keep buying those SUVs, and Ford F-450's.

In fact, it might even be better than that. The agency's "lower" estimate suggests that there could be a nice smooth drop in the price of oil from $60 in 2009 to $50 in 2015 and then remain stable (at $50) through 2035. Forget the SUVs and Ford F-450's, buy the Winnebago of your dreams.

But, there must be some real pessimists in the agency. The pessimists (or realists?) suggest a fairly steep rise from $60 in 2009 to $150 in 2015, and then slightly slower, but steady, increase to $200 in 2035. If that's as bad as it gets, I guess we can live with that.

The optimistic assumptions are based on a significant increase in oil production between now and then.

They cite long term potential supply increases in resource rich non-OPEC areas. Brazil, Russia, Kazakhstan, and also an increase in American production by 2035.

This would suggest that "Peak Oil Theory" is not an issue at least through 2035. 

Maybe the EIA feels the Bakken has more recoverable oil than even the most optimistic.

Meanwhile, Reuters has an article today about oil nearing $100/bbl. OPEC says it won't hold any meeting to  discuss production unless oil goes over $100/bbl, but will let members pump what they want. You really think at $90/bbl, OPEC members aren't pumping as fast as they can? Maybe not; maybe they are sticking to their quotas and maybe they are waiting for $100 oil.

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FLASHBACK: IEA's projections for 2010 and 2011, November 13, 2010.