Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- November 11, 2020

Only one item: tectonic changes in the oil and gas industry will be the story of 2021.

• it is beginning now with consolidation / changes in the oil refining sector;
• will spread to mergers among independents (and possibly majors) in the exploration business;
• by the end of 2021, we will see huge "break" in natural gas, maybe crude oil, pipeline sector between the "haves" and the "have-nots";
• federal vs non-federal leasing will make huge impact; can you spell New Mexico?
• And where will is all end? Consumers in some states will be paying hugely for natural gas, and the gasoline price at the pump will trend toward that last seen in the Obama era. 

Shell to shut down Louisiana refinery. Link here. 

Royal Dutch Shell will shut down its Convent refinery in Louisiana after failing to find a buyer for the facility. 

The move, due to be completed before the end of the month, is in line with Shell’s plans to reduce the number of refineries it operates from 14 to 6 over the next four years. The plans, in turn, are part of its strategy to shift away from its core business and into alternative energy.

The supermajor will “invest in a core set of uniquely integrated manufacturing sites that are also strategically positioned for the transition to a low-carbon future,” Shell said in the statement. 

“A key advantage of these core sites will also come from further integration with Shell trading hubs, and from producing more chemicals and other products that are resilient in a low-carbon future.” 

Last year, Shell sold its Martinez refinery to PBF Holding Company for $1 billion, but last year oil was trading a lot higher than it is trading now, and demand for oil and oil products was not devastated by a coronavirus pandemic that has infected more than 47 million people so far.