Friday, October 31, 2025

Hurricane Season -- 2025 -- One Month To Go -- October 31, 2025

Locator: 49311HURRICANE. 

Need we say more?

Hurricane Humberto in September 2025 briefly had the makings of a record-breaking tropical cyclone but largely fizzled out before reaching the continental US. It's not that there have been fewer hurricanes and tropical storms, it's that none have yet made landfall.

Hurricane activity in 2025 was forecast to be more active than usual.


Hurricane season, 2024 prediction for 2025:


Tale Of Two Bubbles -- October 31, 2025

Locator: 49310BUBBLE. 

Much could be said. 


 

Back To The Bakken -- 1450 Wells / Permits From Grayson Mill To Devon Energy -- October 31, 2025

Locator: 49309B.

XOM: crushes production estimates -- link here --  

Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) topped Wall Street expectations for the third quarter, posting $8.1 billion in adjusted earnings, or $1.88 per share—up from $7.1 billion in Q2—on record output from Guyana and the Permian Basin. Analysts had forecast $1.82 per share, according to LSEG data.

The quarter’s operational strength came despite weaker crude prices, which averaged $68.17 Brent, down 13% year-on-year. Oil and gas production rose to 4.8 million boe/d from 4.6 million in Q2, with record-setting output in both key regions helping offset price softness. Free cash flow, however, fell to $6.3 billion from $11.3 billion a year ago as Exxon spent more on acquiring Permian acreage.

Exxon boosted its quarterly dividend 4% to $1.03 per share and confirmed it remains on track to complete $20 billion in share buybacks this year, after returning $9.3 billion to shareholders last quarter. The company recorded $510 million in restructuring costs but said full-year capital spending will come in slightly below the $27–29 billion guidance range.

In a long note like this there may be typographical and content errors.  

************************
Back to the Bakken
October 30 & October 31, 2025

WTI: $60.98.

Active rigs: 35.

October 30, 2025 --

Six new permits: #42437 - #42442, inclusive:

  • Operators: KODA Resources (4); Devon Energy (2)
  • Fields: Daneville (Divide County); Grinnell (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Devon has permits for two Ruby State wells, SESE 36-154-97, 
      • to be sited 318 / 343 FSL and 291 FEL;
    • KODA Resources has permits for four more Bock wells, NWE 19-161-102;
      • to be sited 715 FNL and 2039 / 2144 FEL.

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 41272, no IP test available, CLR, HM Hove 8-9H, Williams County;

One permit renewed:

  • 41315, WGO Resources, Moe 1-34, Golden Valley, wildcat; 

October 31, 2025 --

One new permit: #42443 --

  • 42443, loc, Phoenix Operating, M Johnson 27-26-25 6HF-LL; NWSW 27-159-101, Zahl, Williams County; to be sited 1842 FSL and 475 FWL

One permit renewed:

  • 40318, Slawson, Magum 4-36-25H, Baker oil field, McKenzie County;

One permit canceled:

  • 41915, Devon Energy, Scha 33-34 7TFH, Moutnrail County;

Change of operator: approximately 1,500 permits / wells:

  • from Grayson Mill Operating;
  • to: Devon Energy.

Alison Ritter's Quick Connects -- October 31, 2025

Locator: 49308B.

Quick connects:

Judge slashes jury damages in Greenpeace case to $345 million -- North Dakota Monitor
NIMBY and BANANA: The contagions that will end North Dakota's prosperity -- InForum
Senator Cramer urges urgency, local power to fuel North Dakota's AI revolution -- WDAY
North Dakota and Minnesota at odds over energy grid update, clean energy goals -- MPR
Withdrawal of federal solar funding stalls North Dakota's clean energy momentum -- Dickinson Press
Facility fire occurs at injection well site in Watford City area; brine and skim oil released -- Minot Daily News
North Dakota taking proactive steps to protect energy infrastructure from cyber attacks -- Minot Daily News
Morton County delays wind farm decision after landowners rally in support of project -- Bismarck Tribune
Project aims to build ND battery supply chain, strengthen role in critical minerals -- McKenzie County Farmer
North Dakota provides $1.5 million to address food insecurity across the state -- North Dakota Monitor
As state's birth rates decline, experts say work is needed to prepare for future impacts -- Dickinson Press
Ag commissioner lukewarm on Bank of North Dakota's foray into stablecoin -- North Dakota Monitor
Small North Dakota county governments set for strains with federal policy changes -- Bismarck Tribune
Bank of North Dakota planning debt refinancing program to help ag producers survive -- Bismarck Tribune
North Dakota Dept. of Transportation one of twelve finalists for national transportation award -- InForum
North Dakota CIO announces Legacy Fund topping $13 billion as of June 30 -- McKenzie County Farmer
Federal workers receive nearly $1M in emergency loans through North Dakota banks -- Dickinson Press
Gov. Armstrong tours Spirit Lake, promises emergency plan as SNAP benefits face halt -- Dickinson Press
Water resource board discusses future plans with statewide water organizations -- Hazen Star
$2.5 million in state grants available for rural economic development and quality-of-life projects -- KFYR-TV
Medora plans for the state's biggest bash in years with crowds up to 40,000 anticipated -- Dickinson Press
Standing Rock Sioux Tribe declares state of emergency over ongoing government shutdown -- KX News
Grieving families in Williston targeted by scam artists, claim to represent funeral home -- Newsbreak
Expansion efforts are moving forward at Mountrail County Health Center and nursing home -- KFYR-TV
Minot Intermodal Facility reaches 1,000 train milestone, expanding global reach, many local jobs -- KX News
$100K winning Powerball ticket in this week's draw was sold at a Williston gas station -- Williston Herald
Finish line nears for Highway 83 culvert project in Minot; completion expected by Thanksgiving -- KFYR - TV
Applicants sought for vacancy on North Dakota State Board of Higher Education -- North Dakota Monitor
A new book aims to promote literacy skills for pre-K children across North Dakota -- Grand Forks Herald
North Dakota Petroleum Foundation and Tribune launching Teen of the Week series -- Bismarck Tribune
North Dakota weighs allowing reduced credit bachelor's degrees at state colleges -- North Dakota Monitor
How often do statewide officials not live in Bismarck? Bachmeier to stay in West Fargo -- Fargo Forum
North Dakota kids to be part of $15M Duke University AI mental health research project -- Bismarck Tribune
University of Mary dean Dr. Pilling highlights up-and-coming Hamm School of Engineering -- WZFG
Dickinson High Band hosts inaugural 'Dickinson's Got Talent' fundraiser; raises $2,000 -- Dickinson Press
With $526,500 budget, Beulah school board to begin planning summer building projects -- The Beacon
Some MAFB students will need alternate transportation due to federal government shutdown -- KFYR - TV
Teachers at Williston's schools preparing to move around as Sloulin Elementary opens next year -- KFYR-TV
Free or reduced-price meals in North Dakota schools will remain unaffected by federal shutdown -- KX News
DPI finance officer outlines how North Dakota funds K-12; $2.3 billion flows through formula -- Citizen Portal
Trump administration issues proposal aimed at helping get AI data centers on the grid faster -- The Hill
Coal use hit a record high around the world last year despite efforts to switch to clean energy -- The Guardian
Electricity demand and rising cost of natural gas is driving US power companies' appetite for coal -- Politico
Oilfield services giants pivot to booming AI infrastructure work as drilling demand decreases -- Reuters
Bill Gates makes major climate change reversal after years of doomerism, "people will thrive" -- NY Post
US and Japan have struck a deal to secure the supply of rare earths and critical minerals -- Mining.com
Oil executives predict 2026 price 'low point' as Permian Basin ramps up production capacity -- Fox Business
API estimates large 4 million barrel dip in US crude oil inventories despite glut narrative -- Oil Price
Energy secretary Wright says US is ready to sell more oil and gas to China, Bloomberg reports -- Reuters
You cannot run a modern state on promises and press releases. You need reliable coal. -- RealClearEnergy
US nuclear generation projected to rise by 27% between 2035 and 2060, shows new analysis -- Oil Price
California's oil and gas policies: A 'clear and present threat to national security' -- California Globe
As coal fired-power plants are being retired, is there a future for the communities? -- Deseret News
EPA to furlough 89% of workforce if shutdown drags into November, Lee Zeldin says -- New York Post
As COP30 looms, Donald Trump challenges the unhinged 'climate crisis' narrative -- Issues & Insights
China files comments urging the EPA to keep anti-coal Biden-era power plant rules -- Daily Caller
ExxonMobil files suit against California over forced speech, climate disclosure laws -- Fox Business News
Steve Milloy: Trump moves to break America's rare earth dependence on communist China -- Daily Caller

One Thing Led To Another Thing And That Led To ... Hexadecimals -- October 31, 2025

Locator: 49307BITCOIN.

What is bitcoin mining? How to get started? Link here.

Hexadecimals -- 

 
Web colors. Wiki

What A Great Country! October 31, 2025

Locator: 49306SNAP.

This is a huge "win-win" for President Trump. Spares him the backlash and continues to make his opposition look irrelevant.

I think I just mentioned this the other day -- how irrelevant the US Congress has become. 

I think this is awesome.

President Trump should get on social media and on TV and on the radio and let folks know that he (President Trump) isn't going to wait any longer. "Too many folks are suffering. If the Democrats won't do it, I will. "No kings, but this president is unilaterally going to do this. I (President Trump) am going to release as much money I am allowed to make sure that no American goes to bed hungry. I'm signing an executive order effective immediately that SNAP benefits be paid." 

Then, he needs to have a few GOP Congressmen sue for military pay to be released. LOL. I'm sure they can find a sympathetic judge ordering President Trump to pay the troops.

What a great country. 

But, wow, Congress has become irrelevant.   

Oh, and while they're at it, find some federal judge to get the air traffic controllers paid.

As a reminder:  

Non-U.S. citizens can qualify for SNAP benefits, but eligibility depends heavily on immigration status. 
For example, while some "qualified immigrants" like refugees, asylees, and legal permanent residents can become eligible, many must wait five years after their arrival, and undocumented immigrants, DACA recipients, and those on student or work visas are typically ineligible. 
Children who are U.S. citizens or lawfully present can receive benefits even if their parents are not eligible [a huge incentive to have children in this country], and parents can apply on their behalf without providing their own immigration status.
Link here:


From The New York Times today (November 1, 2025), link here:
Christine Tully, 78, worried that November would come but her food assistance from the federal government would not. Maybe she could will a good outcome, she thought, by writing down her grocery list for the month as usual. Chicken. Apple juice. Carrots. And if she could find them on sale, she wrote, “a pack of three steaks.”
I love steak. I used to order regularly from Omaha Steaks. I haven’t had a steak in over five years. I can’t remember when I last had a steak. 

I quit eating steak years ago due to the price. Interestingly, I no longer care about steak. I honestly don’t think my 74-year-old GI system could handle steak. Seriously. My favorite dish now? Homemade bean and bacon soup. Seriously.

The WSJ's AI Prompt Of The Day -- October 31, 2025

Locator: 49305AIPROMPT.

Link here

Jason Zweig is one of the most recognized names in investing. Think Warren Buffett on steroids or Warren Buffett without Charlie Munger.

Today, Jason Zweig asks the question I've often asked: "should I just buy stocks until I die?"

So, go to the link and read Jason Zweig's column today.

If the column is unavailable due to a paywall consider the:

AI prompt: should I just buy stocks until I die? 

But that really would be impossible to answer without a bit more information, so this is the AI prompt I used:

As one who lives and breathes investing; sees investing as a hobby; could live comfortably without investing; and, plans to leave his entire portfolio to his five grandchildren, ages five years of age to 20 years of age, should I just buy stocks until I die? No bonds, no cash, no money market funds, just equities.

AI answered that question to my satisfaction and then provided ....  a suggested Perpetual Equity Endowment with an incredible amount of useful investing jargon which will entertain me for the rest of the day.

And, with the give and take of ChatGPT, I can work with ChatGPT to come up with a tailored, more specific portfolio unique to my desires.

My hunch: it won't be long before the editors at TWSJ and/or one of the columnists as a daily column: today's AI prompt. Or The Daily Prompt. Sort of like the daily horoscope newspapers used to provide. LOL. 

AI Prompt For The Day -- Energy Requirements For AI -- Update On Humain -- October 31, 2025

Locator: 49304AIPROMPT.

Tag: Saudi Arabia AI Humaine, Nvidia; AMD, AWS, Qualcomm, Cisco, Blackstone (AirTrunk).  

One of the most fascinating stories to follow right now is the energy story and AI: how will the US respond to the energy requirements generated by AI?

Right now there are three viable options: coal, natural gas, and nuclear.

A reader sent me a note about revived interest in coal in Wyoming, link here

  • Note: two days later this note regarding US coal: link here.

That led me to look at the power plants in the US, on wiki. Coal. Natural gas. Nuclear.

Average size of a "conventional nuclear reactor:" 

A conventional nuclear reactor is typically large, with a plant output of around 1,000 MWe (1 GW) and requiring a footprint of over 1 square mile. For comparison, advanced Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are designed for outputs of 50 to 300 MWe and have a much smaller footprint, though "size" can also refer to the physical reactor core itself.  

The AI prompt for today:

Much is being written about the energy options for providing the electricity that AI large data centers and supercomputers will need. Right now, there are three viable options: coal, natural gas and nuclear.   After a pretty thorough review of where things stand now my hunch is that coal will play a relatively minor role in the near term with natural gas being the clear winner of the two. Long term nuclear may play a role, but it seems to me, nuclear won't be a significant option for at least another decade. For all intents and purposes, I think natural gas will be the dominant energy source for NEW energy production in the states. In China, it may be coal, but in the US, natural gas. Your thoughts with regard to NEW energy in the US and new energy in China.

On another note. Saudi Arabia. AI. Humain. What US company got the contract?


What AI / chatbot / LLM?


Saudi Arabia has its own chatbot (LLM / AI). As a closed society, is it likely that Saudi Arabia will block other chatbots for use in its kingdom? No:

China?
There are two sources (one in 2023, and one in 2024) that suggest China will indeed block chatbots if they are "not socialist enough."

We've talked about this before.

Cramer's First Hour And The Eisen Hour -- October 31, 2025

Locator: 49303CRAMER.

GDPNow: link here. October 27, 2025: 3.9.

Giddy: Cramer is absolutely giddy about Amazon's results.  

Apple: new price target -- $345.

  • there were so many big stories about Apple.
  • this might have been the most important: numbers were not as big as they could have been because Apple couldn't keep up with demand! Wow.
  • the Chinese love the iPhone Air; Americans love the Pro. 
  • by the way, I have figured out how to have three windows open simultaneously on the iPad.

Steve Liesman: on a Fed cut, Steve Liesman does not get it

  • ask Boeing what it thinks about a rate cut?
  • 493 companies: a sideshow
  • Main Street is the economy
  • Wall Street is not the economy

The bigger problems:

  • the government shutdown;
  • federal judges; 

Mag 7 --> Super-mag 3? Both can and will co-exist: Mag 7 + Super-Mag 3.

Netflix: announces a 10 - 1 stock split.

CVX: long interview with CVX CEO and Jim Cramer.

  • considers CVX the gold standard;
  • apparently less enamored wtih XOM  

 4GW: oh, I missed this. I didn't see this but apparently David Farber has the number for the new Michigan Stargate location: 4 GW. 

  • $10 billion / 4GW = $2.5 billion / GW

This is so cool! 

  • Cramer's analogy with the US interstate highway -- we mentioned that on the blog several days ago! 

I'm skipping the Eisen Hour and going to do some reading

************************************
The Book Page

Link here for notes. At that blog, search Zeld but I'm updating this page -- the link -- right now.

Disclaimer -- October 31, 2025

 

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 
  • All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Many posts are not proofread for several days after they've been posted.  
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • And Oracle. 
  • Longer version here.  

Hand-Wringing -- The Three "Liberal Justices" Become More Irrelevant -- One Was Irrelevant On Day One -- October 31, 2025

Locator: 49302LAW.

In The New York Times.  

Link here.

Stargate -- Update -- Saline Township, Ann Arbor, Michigan -- October 31, 2025

Locator: 49301STARGATE.

Link here


From The WSJ story:

Developer Related Companies has agreed to build a more than $7 billion data-center campus on farmland outside Detroit, one of the largest deals yet for this burgeoning real estate class that powers AI.

Related’s 250-acre campus in Saline Township, Mich., is the fourth new site announced as part of a $300-billion contract signed between Oracle

and OpenAI, which the ChatGPT maker says is part of its larger Stargate project designed to build trillions of dollars worth of new computing capacity.

The Related site, about 13 miles from Ann Arbor and the University of Michigan campus, is designed to deliver more than one gigawatt of computing capacity. That is roughly equivalent to the electricity needed to power more than 750,000 homes.  
Investment estimate: $10 billion. Expected to break ground next year (2026). OpenAI is set to make $13 billion in sales this year -- but is putting itself on the hook for an average of $60 billion in yearly payments for its Oracle contract alone.

From the blog, October 22, 2025, link here

Stargate is tracked here, first post, February 8, 2025. Since then, many Stargate posts.

Stargate was to have five locations. Three were to be in the Permian (two in Texas, one in New Mexico just across the state line); one in the Utica. Lordstown, Ohio. But the fifth location was not announced.

Anticipation -- Last Day Of October -- October 31, 2025

Locator: 49300DISCLAIMER.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 
  • All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Many posts are not proofread for several days after they've been posted.  
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • And Oracle. 
  • Longer version here.  

At 7:30 a.m. CT:  


From the blog, two days ago:
SK Hynix: Nvidia supplier. By the way, Trump is making his Asian swing. Jensen Huang after his keynote speech at a tech meeting in Washington, DC, flew immediately to "Korea" where Trump had also visited on his Asian swing. Now why would Jensen Huang fly to Korea just as Trump was also visiting? 

Today, link here -- Samsung to build an "AI megafactory -- starting with 50,000 Nvidia GPUs.  

Korean semiconductor giant Samsung said Thursday that it plans to buy and deploy a cluster of 50,000 Nvidia graphics processing units to improve its chip manufacturing for mobile devices and robots.

The 50,000 Nvidia GPUs will be used to create a facility Samsung is calling an “AI Megafactory.” Samsung didn’t provide details about when the facility would be built.

It’s the latest splashy partnership for Nvidia, whose chips remain essential for building and deploying advanced artificial intelligence.

Focus On Dividends -- MPC -- October 31, 2025

Locator: 49299MPC.

Updates

November 3, 2025: link here. Distributions allow 9 years of 10% dividend growth at MPC! In this thread the writer uses the acronym BMO: before market open.

Original Post 

Link here

A 9.9% hike?

BRK-B: Looks Like It Will Have Another Bad Day On The Market -- October 31, 2025

Locator: 49298BRK.

CVX over at x: link here.

Income statement:

Apple -- Apparently The Best Is Yet To Come -- October 31, 2025

Locator: 49297APPLE.

Highlights of the earnings callMacRumors, link here

Gross profit: 47% margin. 

Services: 15% increase y/y.

Links:

  • Cramer: own, not trade. Hold, not sell. Link here.
  • Wedbush: exuberant. Link here.
  • Breaking: this is an incredible video -- even the analyst has trouble curbing his enthusiasm. Link here.

Ticker: pending. 

Link here.


Apple at x: link here.

CNBC: interview at 7:00 a.m. -- top of the hour -- is must-watch. 

If you like being tracked by the google folks:


Fastest growth in three years
, link here.

Enbridge Wins -- But It's Still Not Over -- October 31, 2025

Locator: 49296ENB.

Link here

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has approved a controversial proposal by Canadian oil and gas giant Enbridge (NYSE:ENB), to reroute an aging oil pipeline around a Wisconsin tribal reservation, saying the project "complied with all applicable federal laws and regulations."

Enbridge proposed the 41-mile reroute to remove the pipeline off land held by the Bad River Band after a court ordered in 2023 that the pipeline should be removed from the tribal land by June 2026.  The judge also ordered Enbridge to pay the tribe over $5 million for trespassing. The ruling was based on the tribe's arguments that the 70-year-old pipeline poses a significant environmental risk due to erosion, and that the company lacks a valid right-of-way for those sections of the pipeline.

Enbridge’s proposal to reroute the pipeline around the reservation has, however, been met with opposition from the Bad River Band and environmental groups who argue it does not meet water quality standards and could still cause environmental damage. President Donald Trump ordered the corps to fast-track the project in April, and the approval moves the $500 million-plus project closer to construction.

The Enbridge Line 5 is a 645-mile oil pipeline that transports crude oil and natural gas liquids from Superior, Wisconsin, to Sarnia, Ontario, passing through Michigan's Upper and Lower Peninsulas. The pipeline has become a vital energy source for the Great Lakes region, but has faced significant legal, environmental, and political challenges, particularly regarding its 4-mile underwater segment across the Straits of Mackinac.

But still not over. 

Reminds me of Jarndyce and Jarndyce (or Jarndyce v Jarndyce).