CVX -- This Is Getting Exciting -- March 31, 2025

Locator: 48403CVX.

TG Natural Resources: a company "indirectly owned by" Tokyo Gas CO -- "Tokyo Gas" Natural Resources is the buyer along with Castleton Commodities International LLC; CVX the seller. Both are headquartered in Houston. CVX moved its HQ from northern California to Houston a year ago. 

Link here. And here.

Chevron U.S.A. Inc. announced that it has closed on a transaction to sell a 70% interest in its East Texas gas assets to an affiliate of TG Natural Resources LLC  a company indirectly owned by Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd. and Castleton Commodities International LLC, for $525 million, with $75 million paid in cash and $450 million as a capital carry to fund Haynesville development. 

Chevron will retain a 30% non-operated working interest in a joint venture with TGNR and an overriding royalty interest in the assets. Tokyo Gas and CCI own an approximate 93% and 7% interest in TGNR, respectively. 

The transaction is anticipated to generate over $1.2 billion in value to Chevron at current Henry Hub prices. Chevron expects to maintain future upside through the joint venture structure while accelerating development of a non-core asset through a capital efficient approach. 

This transaction supports Chevron’s previously announced plans to divest $10-15 billion of assets by 2028 in order to optimize its global energy portfolio.

*****************************
Palantir

This tells me all I need to know about the stock market. Much could be said, but this is not an investment site. A p/e of 450.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

 Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• I've now added Oracle to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Oracle.
  
• Longer version here.      

********************
A Musical Interlude

The best ballad ever? The best "band" ever? Headphones on. Loud.

Number Of Active Rigs In North Dakota Jumps To 36 -- March 31, 2025

Locator: 48402B.

Texas, going nuclear. Link here. Dow and X-energy. 

At the link, "X-energy is a private American nuclear reactor and fuel design engineering company. It is developing a Generation IV high-temperature gas-cooled pebble-bed nuclear reactor design. It has received funding from private sources and various government grants and contracts, notably through the Department of Energy's (DOE) Advanced Reactor Concept Cooperative Agreement in 2016 and its Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP) in 2020."

Wyoming, nuclear update, link here.

TerraPower is the first advanced reactor company in the U.S. to move from design to construction, breaking ground on its first plant near a former coal site in Kemmerer, Wyoming in the summer of 2024. The company aims to start dispatching power by the end of 2030 to Warren Buffett’s PacifiCorp.

TerraPower’s Natrium reactor operates at atmospheric temperature, a feature that Levesque says will reduce construction costs.

The U.S. currently relies on reactors that operate at about 300 Celsius (572 degrees Fahrenheit) and are cooled by water. The system operates under high pressure — water boils at 100 degree Celsius — to keep the coolant liquid, and the plants need heavy, expensive components to contain the pressure.

TerraPower uses sodium, rather than water, as a coolant. Liquid sodium boils at 900 Celsius, much higher than the Natrium reactor’s operating temperature of around 500 Celsius. That means the plant does not need to be pressurized, Levesque said.

Japan buying shale assets in Texas. Link here. Will acquire Texas shale assets from Chevron. Tokyo Gas is Japan's biggest city gas provider, will be worth tens of billions of yen. Whatever that means?

• 100 billion yen = $667 million. So, $10 billion = $67 million?

Investing in the US, 2024, source:

• EU holdings of US equities (stocks): $5.3 trillion;
• US holdings of EU equities (stocks): $3.4 trillion.
• I wonder if that "balances" out the balance of trade differential?

******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.48.

Active rigs: 36. Significant jump from the 30 wells we generally saw during the winter.

Four new permits, #41755 - #41758, inclusive:

• Operator: KODA Resources
• Field: Fertile Valley (Divide County)
• Comments:
• KODA Resources has permits for three Stout wells, SESW 13-160-102, 
• to be sited 660 FSL and 2581 / 2645 FWL; a fourth Stout well, SWSE 13-160-102, will be sited 460 FSL and 2531 FEL.  

One permit renewed:

• 36271, Hess, AN-Double Bar V-152-95-0106H-5, NENE 11-152-95, Antelope oil field, McKenzie County.

Tech -- LDCs: ARM-Based CPUs And Nvidia GPUs -- March 31, 2025

Locator: 48401TECH.

This really isn't worth a stand-alone blog but I already posted it and nothing else to add, so will leave it here and add more later if there's anything to add. 

I think this has been talked about before, pairing the following in LDCs:

• ARM-based Grace CPUs; and,
• Nvidia-based Blackwell GPUs.

• Link here.
• This link might be even better.

SIR: link here. If I'm reading this correctly, ARM says its share of LDC CPU market will be 50% -- they didn't say it would be "50% growth" but rather, in toto, 50% of all CPUs in LDCs will be ARM-based. 

According to wikipedia --- see below the fold ---

This is what LDCs look like with regard to ARM-based CPUs. Even this wiki entry suggests that it's already almost all ARM-based.

Note:

WTI Jumps Above $70 -- March 31, 2025

Locator: 48400B.

US oil production: sets new all-time January record; twelfth consecutive month above 13.1 million bopd, field production. Link here.

Shale: agree 1,000%. Brilliant insight. Link here. The question is whether the Bakken revolution is being driven by economics or geology. Obviously it's a bit of both, but if push comes to shove, economics will win out in the short term. That is, price WTI at $100 and let's see what shale does.

********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.49. Whoo-hoo. Up 3.07%. Up $2.13 / bbl.

New wells:

• Tuesday, April 1, 2025: 3 for the month, 3 for the quarter, 200 for the year,
• 41186, conf, Murex, LA-Emma Rose 30-31H LE MB,
• 40154, conf, Hess, EN-Engebretson-157-94-1003H-4,
• 39320, conf, Grayson Mill, Marilyn 31-33 4H, 
• Monday, March 31, 2025: 86 for the month, 197 for the quarter, 197 for the year,
• None.
• Sunday, March 30, 2025: 86 for the month, 197 for the quarter, 197 for the year,
• 41131, conf, Murex, LA-Riley Kyle 25-36H MB,
• 40155, conf, Hess, EN-Schroeder-157-94-1102H-2,
• 39693, conf, Hess, TI-Beauty Valley-158-95-1423H-6,
• Saturday, March 29, 2025: 83 for the month, 194 for the quarter, 194 for the year,
• 41020, conf, CLR, Alfsvaag Federal 7-31H,
• 40857, conf, BR, West Kellogg 4A UTFH-B,

RBN Energy:  new natural gas pipes and LNG terminals shake up Texas / Louisiana gulf coast. Archived.

Over the next couple of years, six new pipelines and expansion projects will bring 11.8 Bcf/d of incremental natural gas supplies to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. During the same period, more than 8 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity will move that gas to international markets. The impact of this onslaught of gas flows will be anything but orderly. Inflows will never equal outflows. Pipes will arrive early with supplies, with LNG terminals coming along later. Gas flows will shift from west to east, and north to south, in chaotic patterns that will upend historical price relationships. Is there any way to make sense of all this? There sure is, as we discuss in today’s RBN blog. All you need is the right arrow pointing the way.

Fast-rising gas production in the Permian, growth potential in the Haynesville and Eagle Ford, and the rapid buildout of new gas pipelines and LNG export capacity make this a particularly exciting — and challenging — time for gas market players in Texas and Louisiana. One thing is clear: With so much going on, it’s never been more important to have a solid understanding of how the market will evolve, month by month and year by year, as all this new infrastructure comes online. Why? Because the new pipeline capacity and liquefaction trains will have continually changing impacts not only on gas flows throughout the two-state region but on gas basis at every hub.

With all that in mind, RBN has developed — and now made available for our subscription customers — the Arrow Model, which (1) aggregates gas production, demand and net outflows or inflows for each market hub over time; (2) quantifies the degree to which gas is pushed/pulled between and among hubs, again over time; (3) anticipates gas flows on each corridor (and the need for incremental pipeline capacity); and (4) forecasts the basis differentials that underlie and support the aforementioned flows of gas.

We’ll get to the details in a moment, but first a quick summary of where things stand today — and how much things will change over the next two years or so. Permian gas production exceeds 21 Bcf/d, Haynesville and Eagle Ford E&Ps are poised to increase their output, and new pipelines (and pipeline expansions) from production areas to the Gulf Coast (and along the coast) are in the works, including the 2.5-Bcf/d Blackcomb Pipeline (dashed red-and-black line in Figure 1 below) from Waha to Agua Dulce, the 1.5-Bcf/d Hugh Brinson Pipeline (dashed blue-and-black line) from Waha to the Dallas/Fort Worth area, and the 1.5-Bcf/d Trident Pipeline (dashed orange-and-black line) from the Katy, TX, hub to Sabine Pass. And that’s just the supply side of the equation. After a pause in LNG capacity additions last year, Plaquemines LNG is increasing its output and several new LNG export projects are slated to come online, starting with Corpus Christi LNG Stage III (the first element of which is already sending out LNG) and followed in short order by Golden Pass LNG (Sabine Pass), Rio Grande LNG (Brownsville, TX) and Port Arthur LNG (see dash-bordered diamonds). These projects will add 6.9 Bcf/d of gas demand by mid-2027 and another 4.1 Bcf/d by 2030, dramatically altering regional gas flows as they do.

Figure 1. Selected Gas Pipelines and LNG Terminals in Texas and Louisiana. Source: RBN 

Auto Tariffs -- Random Note -- March 31, 2025

Locator: 48399TARIFFS.

No comment.

The story speaks for itself.

Mazda:

Katie Ledecky: Still Making Waves -- March 30, 2025

Locator: 48398KATIE.

2025 Commencement speaker, Stanford University, June 15, 2025: link here.

500 free-style, January 31, 2025: third-fastest performance in the history of the event. Link here.

While it’s unclear if these results will be submitted for official results to USA Swimming, that goes down as the third-fastest 500 yard free of her career, which means it is also the third-fastest 500 yard free in history. She now holds the 8 fastest swims in history and 19 of the 25 fastest swims in history.

****************************
Another Hungarian Alien From Outer Space

Link here.

Judit Polgár (born 23 July 1976) is a Hungarian chess grandmaster, widely regarded as the strongest female chess player of all time.

In 1991, Polgár achieved the title of Grandmaster at the age of 15 years and 4 months, at the time the youngest to have done so, breaking the record previously held by former world champion Bobby Fischer. She was the youngest player ever to break into the FIDE top 100 players rating list, ranking No. 55 in the January 1989 rating list, at the age of 12.

Polgár is the only woman to have been a serious candidate for the World Chess Championship, in which she participated in 2005; she had previously participated in large, 100-player-plus knockout tournaments for the world championship. She is also the only woman to have surpassed 2700 Elo, reaching a peak world ranking of No. 8 in 2004 and peak rating of 2735 in 2005. She is the only woman to be ranked in the top ten of all chess players, first reaching that ranking in 1996. She was the No. 1 rated woman in the world from January 1989 until her retirement on 13 August 2014.

She has won or shared first in the chess tournaments of Hastings 1993, Madrid 1994, León 1996, U.S. Open 1998, Hoogeveen 1999, Sigeman & Co 2000, Japfa 2000, and the Najdorf Memorial 2000.

Polgár is the only woman to have won a game against a reigning world number one player, and has defeated eleven current or former world champions in either rapid or classical chess: Magnus Carlsen, Anatoly Karpov, Garry Kasparov, Vladimir Kramnik, Boris Spassky, Vasily Smyslov, Veselin Topalov, Viswanathan Anand, Ruslan Ponomariov, Alexander Khalifman, and Rustam Kasimdzhanov.

See also her sisters, Susan, and Sofia.

Production Data For New Wells Reporting This Next Week -- March 30, 2025

Locator: 48397WELLS.

The wells:

• 40902, conf, CLR, Entzel 3-14H, Cabernet, npd,
• 40153, conf, Hess, EN-Engebretson-157-94-1003H-3, White Earth,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2025	18467	27063
12-2024	20244	24638
11-2024	13470	13571
10-2024	20479	11696

• 40152, conf, Hess, EN-Engebretson-157-94-1003H-2, White Earth,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2025	1511	1955
12-2024	12519	15968
11-2024	23747	31056
10-2024	20399	23672

• 39039, conf, Grayson, Orville 4-9 3H, Todd,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2025	22278	24498
12-2024	29691	26220
11-2024	35237	30173
10-2024	36352	20284

• 40924, conf, CLR, Entzel 2-14HSL, Cabernet, npd,
• 40913, conf, BR, Cleetwood 7A, Elidah, npd,
• 40923, conf, CLR, Rutledge 3-11H, Cabernet, npd,
• 40357, conf, Hunt Oil, Trulson 156-90-11-14H-5, Ross,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2025	7467	2675
12-2024	18121	7191
11-2024	19051	6299
10-2024	17819	5856

• 39808, conf, Kraken, Turbodiesel 19-3-31 1H, Big Stone, npd,
• 41013, conf, CLR, Alfsvaag FIU 6-31H, Crazy Man Creek, npd,
• 40922, conf, CLR, Rutledge 2-11HSL, Cabernet, npd,
• 40373, conf, Slawson, Kahuna 2-6-7H, Pleasant Hill, npd,
• 39809, conf, Kraken, Turbodiesel 19-30-31 1H, Big Stone, npd,
• 40372, conf, Slawson, Kahuna 3-6-7H, Pleasant Hill, npd,
• 41034, conf, BR, Cleetwood 7B, Elidah, npd,
• 39810, conf, Krakken, Turbodiesel 19-30-31-3H, Big Stone, npd,
• 41064, conf, BR, Tilton 2B, Lone Butte, npd,
• 40944, conf, Murex, LA-Alexander Andres 23-36H MB, Alexander, npd,
• 40497, conf, CLR, Marshall 2-24HSL, Little Knife, npd,
• 40304, conf, Hunt Oil, Trulson 156-90-11-14H-2, Ross,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2025	11965	4273
12-2024	9719	4317
11-2024	16812	6667
10-2024	10895	4771

• 39811, conf, Kraken, Apollo 18-7-6-1H, Big Stone, npd,
• 41019, conf, CLR, Bud FIU 6-30H, Crazy Man Creek, npd,
• 40883, conf, Murex, LA-Jean Claudine 25-36H MB, Alexander, npd,
• 40371, conf, Slawson, Kahuna 4-6-7H, Pleasant Hill, npd,
• 40150, conf, CLR, Marshall 3-24H, Little Knife, npd,
• 39812, conf, Kraken, Apollo 18-7-6 2H, Big Stone, npd,
• 39694, conf, Hess, TI-Beauty Valley-158-95-1423H-7, Tioga,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2025	13454	19313
12-2024	14456	19644
11-2024	13276	12082
10-2024	11293	3408

• 39040, conf, Grayson Mill, Orville 4-9 XW 1H, Todd,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2025	19054	20053
12-2024	26561	23434
11-2024	33847	27636
10-2024	46859	26170

• 41033, conf, BR, Cleetwood 7C, Elidah, npd,
• 40223, conf, Slawson, Kahuna 5-6-7H, Pleasant Hill, npd,
• 39813, conf, Kraken, Apollo 18-7-6 1H, Big Stone, npd,
• 36620, conf, BR, West Kellogg 2C-MBH, Elidah, npd,
• 41186, conf, Murex, LA-Emma Rose 30-31H LE MB, Alexander, npd,
• 40154, conf, Hess, EN-Engebretson-157-94-1003H-4, White Earth,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2025	17922	25839
12-2024	18885	22713
11-2024	16561	20269
10-2024	32151	38771

• 39320, conf, Grayson Mill, Marilyn 31-33 4H, Painted Woods,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2025	28540	28265
12-2024	30530	22162
11-2024	24630	18726
10-2024	18705	2470
9-2024	39	0

• 41131, conf, Murex, LA-Riley Kyle 25-36H MB, Alexander, npd,
• 40155, conf, Hess, EN-Schroeder-157-94-1102H-2, White Earth,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2025	19500	26996
12-2024	21543	27192
11-2024	14825	16918
10-2024	25812	27911

• 39693, conf, Hess, TI-Beauty Valley-158-95-1423H-6,Tioga,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2025	14801	18602
12-2024	12195	14831
11-2024	10665	9054
10-2024	12333	10462

• 41020, conf, CLR, Alfsvaag Federal 7-31H, Crazy Man Creek, npd,
• 40857, conf, BR, West Kellogg 4A UTFH-B, Elidah, npd,

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- March 30, 2025

Locator: 48396WELLS.

Wednesday, April 9, 2025: 35 for the month, 35 for the quarter, 242 for the year,
40902, conf, CLR, Entzel 3-14H,
40153, conf, Hess, EN-Eneebreton-157-94-1003H-3,
40152, conf, Hess, EN-Engebretson-157-94-1003H-2,
39039, conf,Grayson, Orville 4-9 3H,

Tuesday, April 8, 2025: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 238 for the year,
40924, conf, CLR, Entzel 2-14HSL,
40913, conf, BR, Cleetwood 7A,

Monday, April 7, 2025: 29 for the month, 29 for the quarter, 236 for the year,
40923, conf, CLR, Rutledge 3-11H,
40357, conf, Hunt Oil, Trulson 156-90-11-14H-5,
39808, conf, Kraken, Turbodiesel 19-3-31 1H,

Sunday, April 6, 2025: 26 for the month, 26 for the quarter, 223 for the year,
41013, conf, CLR, Alfsvaag FIU 6-31H,
40922, conf, CLR, Rutledge 2-11HSL,
40373, conf, Slawson, Kahuna 2-6-7H,
39809, conf, Kraken, Turbodiesel 19-30-31 1H,

Saturday, April 5, 2025: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 219 for the year,
40372, conf, Slawson, Kahuna 3-6-7H,
41034, conf, BR, Cleetwood 7B,
39810, conf, Krakken, Turbodiesel 19-30-31-3H,

Friday, April 4, 2025: 19 for the month, 19 for the quarter, 216 for the year,
41064, conf, BR, Tilton 2B,
40944, conf, Murex, LA-Alexander Andres 23-36H MB,
40497, conf, CLR, Marshall 2-24HSL,
40304, conf, Hunt Oil, Trulson 156-90-11-14H-2,
39811, conf, Kraken, Apollo 18-7-6-1H,

Thursday, April 3, 2025: 14 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 211 for the year,
41019, conf, CLR, Bud FIU 6-30H,
40883, conf, Murex, LA-Jean Claudine 25-36H MB,
40371, conf, Slawson, Kahuna 4-6-7H,
40150, conf, CLR, Marshall 3-24H,
39812, conf, Kraken, Apollo 18-7-6 2H,
39694, conf, Hess, TI-Beauty Valley-158-95-1423H-7,
39040, conf, Grayson Mill, Orville 4-9 XW 1H,

Wednesday, April 2, 2025: 7 for the month, 7 for the quarter, 204 for the year,
41033, conf, BR, Cleetwood 7C,
40223, conf, Slawson, Kahuna 5-6-7H,
39813, conf, Kraken, Apollo 18-7-6 1H,
36620, conf, BR, West Kellogg 2C-MBH,

Tuesday, April 1, 2025: 3 for the month, 3 for the quarter, 200 for the year,
41186, conf, Murex, LA-Emma Rose 30-31H LE MB,
40154, conf, Hess, EN-Engebretson-157-94-1003H-4,
39320, conf, Grayson Mill, Marilyn 31-33 4H,

Monday, March 31, 2025: 86 for the month, 197 for the quarter, 197 for the year,
None.

Sunday, March 30, 2025: 86 for the month, 197 for the quarter, 197 for the year,
41131, conf, Murex, LA-Riley Kyle 25-36H MB,
40155, conf, Hess, EN-Schroeder-157-94-1102H-2,
39693, conf, Hess, TI-Beauty Valley-158-95-1423H-6,

Saturday, March 29, 2025: 83 for the month, 194 for the quarter, 194 for the year,
41020, conf, CLR, Alfsvaag Federal 7-31H,
40857, conf, BR, West Kellogg 4A UTFH-B,

Chart Of The Day -- March 29, 2025

Locator: 48395QQQ.

Link here. 

.

Stargate -- From One-Half Trillion To One-Trillion-Dollar Investment In The USA -- March 29, 2025

Locator: 48394LDC.

LDCs are tracked here.

This was the first mention of Stargate on the blog. Since then we've talked about Stargate three or four times, but I seem to be able to find "only" a half-trillion-dollar commitment. Now, tonight, it's being reported that Softbank is planning to commit $1 trillion in large data centers in the US. 

From Beth:

One just hopes the next president doesn't screw up what Trump is envisioning. The good news is that what Trump is envisioning really cannot be done offshore (outside of the US). Maybe we'll talk about that someday.

Parting Shot -- Saturday -- March 29, 2025

Locator: 48393SOCIALSECURITY.

There's a story out there that says for a spouse to receive spousal social security benefits, he/she must provide a certified copy of the marriage certificate.

So, is that true? Does that mean the "end" of common law marriages?

Nope, google it. The SSA still recognizes common law marriages and the requirements for "proving" a common law marriage are about as lax as requirements to prove one's citizenship when voting in federal elections.

Schadenfreude -- March 29, 2025

Locator: 48392GERMANY.

This graph is meaningless -- okay, it's not meaningless but it's of limited value when provided out of context. But it sure is interesting. We knew Germany was in trouble but we did not know to what extent. Schadenfreude.

Link here.

Great News! The Blogs Are In Great Shape! March 29, 2025

Locator: 48391ARCHIVES.

Earlier this week I posted a stand-alone note suggesting that my blogs were starting to be blocked by most browsers. I had no idea what that was all about, but continued blogging and hoped for the best.

All of a sudden, about three days ago, everything seemed to return to normal. Knock on wood. 

On a separate note: is it just me or does it seem like we're getting a huge news story every six hours and President Trump is giving a formal or informal press conference at least twice a day and Judge James Boasberg is now the "shadow president" and nothing makes sense any more?

This is so much more interesting now that we have a president -- good, bad, indifferent -- in the Oval Office. 

By the way, I assume President Trump is golfing just as much as he always has, but the press is not reporting it as often. 

Elon Musk Declares Victory; Announces Intention To Step Down -- Is This The Beginning Of The End Of The Oligarchy? March 29, 2025

Locator: 48390MUSK.

Links everywhere.

xAI folded into X. Or was it the other way around? Yes, I do believe it was other way around. xAI acquired x for $33 billion.

No one understands that move / deal but it's huge.

From the screenshot above: "US president Donald Trump's billionaire ally Elon Musk has signalled that he is planning to step down ....."

There was no similar announcement the Democratic Party's biggest billionaire ally George Soros was stepping down.

Week 13: March 25, 2025 -- March 31, 2025

Locator: 48362TOPSTORIES.

President Trump has been in office for only 68 days. 

Top story: massive (adjective used by the press) national security breach; reaches level of National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, VP  JD Vance, SecDOD Mike Hespeth; reporters smell blood in the water. 

• Two weeks after the breach, Trump says he was unaware of the story or the breach.

Background:

• Massive (adjective used by the press) security breach: story broke Monday, March 24, 2025
• breach apparently occurred March 11, 2025
• reported by top journalist at The Atlantic, March 24, 2025
• dates need to be fact-checked
• chat group was apparently led by the National Security Advisor Mike Waltz whose staff would have compiled the "guest" list; 
• VP JD Vance; SecDef Hegseth were on the call and apparently unaware of the others on the call
• transcript suggests participants unaware of journalist on the group chat; 
• transcript suggests juvenile discussion; certainly not professional nor diplomatic
• Trump, when asked about an event that occurred more than a week ago, says he was not aware
• two issues here:
• how did it happen; what's the damage; and,
• what will it take for this story to go away 

******************************************
Top Stories

Geoff Simon's quick connects.

***************************
The First 100 Days
January 20, 2025 - April 30, 2025

Tenth Week Of President Trump's Presidency

**********************************
The Top Stories

Most important story of the week: 

• GDPNow estimates 1Q25 GDP to be down 2.8%. 
• US equity market in the dumps; NASDAQ now down 10% off its highs.

Top stories of the week:

• Hespeth -- group chat debacle
• Boasberg -- the "shadow president"
  
• DAPL lawsuit dismissed
• Elon Musk announcement: will step down from DOGE in two months
• Elon Musk folds X into xAI; valued at $113 billion.
  

Top international non-energy story:

• US Navy keeps pounding Yemen; non-stop
• military earning their medals
• incredible real-world experience for future ops over Iran, Taiwan, Greenland
• one gets the feeling that Trump is beginning to like the US military 
• Palestinians now protesting Hamas; beginning of the end of Hamas
• Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis. -- the 3-H club becoming more and more irrelevant
• VP JD Vance indicates US still interested in peaceful takeover of Greenland
• in geographic size, Greenland dwarfs Taiwan, just saying

Top international energy story:

• Federal judge dismisses case against ET and DAPL pipeline
• environmental impact study not complete; it's been years -- a decade?
  

Top national non-energy stories:

• Columbia University president finally gives up the fight against Trump; steps down;
• the top vaccine official at the FDA has tendered his resignation;
• the real president? Trump? Stay tuned; JD Vance? Nope. Elon Musk? Nope.
• more and more it looks like the real president of the US right now is a federal judge
• setting immigration policy
• setting deportation policy
• setting domestic spending policy
• setting international aid policy
• tariffs. Trump says there will be a "25% tariff" on autos and auto parts imported into the US
  
• staggering amount of money being pledged by companies to avoid Trump's tariffs
• measles epidemic that started in Texas is now a nationwide epidemic and may go international; Africa to be devastated
  

Top national energy story:

• 
  

Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

• 
  

Top North Dakota energy story:

Whoo-Hoo! Another Story Not Found On Bluesky -- Judge James Boasberg Dismisses DAPL Lawsuit -- March 29, 2025

Locator: 48389DAPL.

Prescient: this was posted early last evening, well before this story broke -- at least before I learned of the DAPL - Judge Boasberg story! Nailed it!

Who's the real president? 

• the real president? Trump? Stay tuned; JD Vance? Nope. Elon Musk? Nope.
• more and more it looks like the real president of the US right now is a federal judge -- and specifically it's Judge James Boasberg
  
• setting immigration policy
• setting deportation policy
• setting domestic spending policy
• setting international aid policy
• setting in-state pipeline policy 
• setting Gulf of America drilling policy
  

 ******************************************
DAPL: Free At Last! Free At Last!!

Link here.

Two huge wins for ET and the oil sector in North Dakota and US Big Oil in past month -- first 100 days of the Trump administration.

Measles -- Covid-19 -- And A Whole Bunch Of Other Stuff -- March 28, 2025

Locator: 48388ARCHIVES.

Measles and Mutations

Conspiracy theorists need to spend some time on this story: link here.

By the way, that's what they said about the SARS-2 virus at first. I remember that because I posted that on the blog back in 2020 - 2021. 

And, oh, by the way, under the new Secretary - HHS it's pretty much agreed that we won't be doing any basic vaccine research again any time soon. Maybe on cod liver oil, Vitamin A, and injectable Lysol, but not basic vaccine research.

*************************
Jeff Goldberg

And also spend some time on this story: the "origin" story of how Atlantic's Jeff Goldberg's telephone number was on speed-dial for Waltz's group-chat group. LOL. I find it simply amazing we haven't hear this story -- how it got there in the first place -- yet. The fact that we haven't heard that "origin" story suggests journalists are not capable of connecting dots like Bernstein and Woodward did.

**************************
The Book Page

One of the best books I've read recently: 

1177 BC The Year Civilization Collapsed

, Eric H. Cline, c. 2021. Updated.

Notes will be posted here.

The first thing I noted: "BC" and not "BCE." Interesting. 

Lots of place names in the eastern Mediterranean. An important book.

Hatshepsut: p. 24 and following.  

*************************************
Fast Food Page

For the past week I've been doing an informal and very unscientific survey of fast food restaurants in our local area -- I can bike to all of these places in less then three minutes. McDonald's is the most difficult for me to get to, having to cross an interstate-like four-line divided highway.

Whataburger: I no longer care for hamburgers at Whataburger. I won't go back. Incredibly good service, but Chick-fil-A is slightly better.

McDonald's: remains my #1 choice for hamburgers, a small order of French fries, and a diet coke. A simple hamburger, small fries, and diet Coke costs $5.62 with tax. Service, at best, is very good but both Whataburger and Chick-fil-A have better customer service.

Chick-fil-A: a full meal -- the sandwich plus waffle fries plus drink would be way too much for me, so I simply get the sandwich and the diet drink. No waffle fries. The entree is priced at $5.09 according to the menu board at Chick-fil-A. This was my receipt tonight:

• So, the entree -- the #1 sandwich sells for $5.09. Tax at 8% would bring it to $5.50 which is very, very close to $5.51.

• So, does that mean the small drink was free and all I paid for was the sandwich? If so, that's a better deal than McDonald's. I'll have to check it out again tomorrow. 

French fries: I didn't check the waffle fries at Chick-fil-A tonight but over the years I've had Chick-fil-A's waffle fries many times. So I remember them. Without question, McDonald's French fries are still the best. No argument there.

Traffic: I've generally been eating at 7:30 p.m. or thereabouts. Observations:

• McDonald's: inside restaurant, absolutely empty every night at that time. Drive-through is steady but by no means a long line.
• Whataburger: drive through fairly empty. Inside restaurant, fairly empty.
• Chick-fil-A: almost no tables available; almost every table taken. 
• Many Spanish-speaking latinos. Lots of families -- two parents and two or three kids, not uncommon. Only of the three that has to have an employee outside taking orders to move the line along. Clearly the busiest restaurant of the three. Chick-fil-A, at 7:30 p.m. is busy, cheerful, and reminds me of the good ol' days (pre-Covid). McDonald's and Whataburger are "dead" by comparison. 

Employees:

• it appears McDonald's has cornered the market on non-English speaking employees, many of them middle-aged women;
• Chick-fil-A: 1950's high-school boys and girls (young men and women); only two genders, it appears; off the Hollywood set of Back to the Future or American Graffiti.
• Whataburger: English-speaking but a more socially / culturally diverse employee pool .

Bottom line: if all three restaurants next to each other:

• first choice, nine times out of ten: McDonald's
• second choice: Chick-fil-A -- simply because of the French fries, and perhaps I enjoy a smaller burger than a huge chicken sandwich these days. But I think it's the French fries.
  
• never go back again (as a rule, some exceptions, I suppose): Whataburger.

Now that summer has returned, I assume I will be at McDonald's or Chick-fil-A three or four times a week, mostly for dinner, not lunch.

Oh, that reminds me -- wifi:

• Whataburger: no wi-fi; if I blog, I use my phone as a hot spot
• McDonald's: dependable;
  Chick-fil-A: dependable and really, really fast

In the old days, wi-fi was important, but no longer now that iPhones are incredibly good hotspots.

***************************
Blu-Ray DVDs

Perfect combination:

• Phillips big-screen smart television
• Hulu - Amazon Prime - YouTube Video
• Amazon Fire Stick
• Sony Blu-Ray player
• BDP-BX370 Streaming Blu-ray DVD Player with built-in Wi-Fi, Dolby Digital TrueHD/DTS
• list price: $89.99
• currently: $79.99, same day free delivery

 ******************************
Best Market Ever

Best market ever, for 18-year-olds; 26-year-olds; everyone with a 30-year horizon, and maybe Cathie Wood.

I continue to scoop up tech shares, dividend-focused ETFs, and large-cap, tech-focused ETFs. Some great opportunities in fossil fuel but I'm fully-weighted in energy so no new shares there. 

No trading, all investing. 

I've collected a very few gold coins over the years for the grandchildren, certainly not an investment but I see gold is trading at an all-time high. 

On the other hand, I continue to acquire US silver dollars and a few silver dollars from Canada, Australia, and China. Silver? Except for the craziness in silver from 2010 to 2013, silver, historically, right now is doing quite nicely. But, again, I'm not buying silver as an investment; simply coins for the grandchildren as a "novelty."

As of March 28, 2025, at 5:00 PM, spot gold is trading at approximately $3,086.00 per ounce, while spot silver is at around $34.62 per ounce.

******************************
Pete Hegseth

Unless some story of enough magnitude to push Hegseth off the front page of the newspaper occurs, Hegseth will step down to spend more time with his family within the next two weeks. This could happen as early as next week.

About the only two stories with enough magnitude to push Hegseth off the front page:

• something "bad" happens in Iran; or,
• something "really good" happens in Ukraine.

But if there's no big story, Hegseth remains the story. And that's not a good story for Trump.

Musk -- AI - X -- BlueSky And All That Jazz -- March 28, 2025

Locator: 48387ARCHIVES.

Good, bad, or indifferent: President Trump will go down as the most transformational president. Right now, late Friday news:

• Columbia University president finally gives up the fight against Trump; steps down;
• the top vaccine official at the FDA has tendered his resignation;
• the real president? Trump? Stay tuned; JD Vance? Nope. Elon Musk? Nope.
• more and more it looks like the real president of the US right now is a federal judge
• setting immigration policy
• setting deportation policy
• setting domestic spending policy
• setting international aid policy
• measles epidemic in Texas; when there was one measles-related death, it was headline news; when a possible second measles-related death was being investigated, it, too was headline news. Tonight on local Texas news station, I thought I heard there were now six measles-related deaths --- fact-checking: NBC still says only one death
• number of cases in Texas has now surged: at least 400
• it now looks like the epidemic is about, if it hasn't already, to go international: Africa will be devastated.
• all cases, except two, have in unvaccinated folks
• there is zero-chance that the measles virus will mutate to evade the efficacy of the vaccine
• but if you won't vaccinate your children against measles, at least the SecretaryHHS will see that you get plenty of cod liver oil and Vitamin A
• although US health officials will tell us that upwards of 92.7% of kindergarten children have been fully vaccinated (two doses) but those most vulnerable -- those unvaccinated -- are now likely to be less than kindergarten age
• unlike Covid, measles is entirely preventable: it will be interesting to see if a viral infection impacts President Trump's second term just as another viral infection impacted his first term

********************************
Sixth Industrial Revolution
Elon Musk Right In The Middle

Link here.

The combination values xAI at $80 billion and X at $33 billion, Musk said in a social-media post announcing the acquisition.  

This seems reasonable considering it's well-known that Musk was "tricked" into paying $44 billion for twitter. Wiki will be updated its entry on x, no doubt.

BlueSky has proven to be a "bust" for me; x is getting better and better. 

BlueSky is pretty much all political; x covers the landscape. It's particularly strong in finance, business, investing, sports, and one can pretty much minimize any political coverage with no difficulty. 

Just out of curiosity, right now when I clicked on BlueSky, the first hit was AOC "we will not be distracted" rant with smiling white folks surrounding her and in her audience -- and then there's Bernie Sanders standing wiht her -- oh, that's it. It's a political ad for AOC's campaign. I'll be curious if I see it on x.

I was only able to find an entry regarding Musk / x / AI by specifically searching for the story.

California Fires -- Pacific Palisades -- "Re-Building Process" -- March 28, 2025

Locator: 48386B.

Pacific Palisades fires: it's being reported that only four -- repeat, four -- permits have been issued by Los Angeles after the first destroyed more than 7,000 homes. This is perhaps as good a story as any on the status of the "re-buid": link here.

It appears the permits that were issued were limited in scope. Unless I missed it, the source for this story did not provide the denominator: how many permit requests have been made, and how many have been rejected, with the remainder supposedly under review.

It appears the county is more interested in waiting the results of a consultant's report regarding the fires.

My hunch is the city is requiring "McMansions" and larger structures to be re-built on the lots and not any "starter" homes.

It might behoove homeowners to "build" group-chat / website to where permits could be posted, along with updates of the permitting process. My hunch: the first100 such permits posted will tell us exactly what's going on. The White House and FEMA, HUD, and other federal and state government agencies need to be part of that website.

Five New Permits; Seven Permits Renewed; One DUC Reported As Completed -- March 28, 2025

Locator: 48386B.

Palisades fires: it's being reported that only four -- repeat, four -- permits have been issued by Los Angeles after the first destroyed more than 7,000 homes. 

It appears the permits that were issued were limited in scope. Unless I missed it, the source for this story did not provide the denominator: how many permit requests have been made, and how many have been rejected, with the remainder supposedly under review. It appears the county is more interested in waiting the results of a consultant's report regarding the fires. 

********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $69.36.

Active rigs: 33.

Five new permits, #41750 - #41754, inclusive:

• Operator: KODA Resources.
• Fields: Fertile Valley (Divide County); Daneville (Divide County)
• KODA Resources has permits for four Stout wells and one Bock well. 
• The Stout wells, SESW 13-160-102, will be sited 460 FWL and 2566/2624 FWL; and 
• a Bock well, lot 2 - section 40161-102; to be sited 509 FNL and 1992 FEL.

Seven permits renewed:

• MRO (6): the following wells: Ratcliffe USA, Rothgarn USA, Banta USA, Oukrup USA, Restad USA, and Strobeck USA, all in Last Bridge, all in Dunn County.

One producing well (a DUC) was reported as complete completed:

• 40641, 1,021, CLR, Vandeberg 7-35HSL, Williams County.

TGIF -- Friday, March 28, 2025

Locator: 48385B.

WTI: $69.70.

New wells:

• Sunday, March 30, 2025: 86 for the month, 197 for the quarter, 197 for the year,
• 41131, conf, Murex, LA-Riley Kyle 25-36H MB,
• 40155, conf, Hess, EN-Schroeder-157-94-1102H-2,
• 39693, conf, Hess, TI-Beauty Valley-158-95-1423H-6,
• Saturday, March 29, 2025: 83 for the month, 194 for the quarter, 194 for the year,
• 41020, conf, CLR, Alfsvaag Federal 7-31H,
• 40857, conf, BR, West Kellogg 4A UTFH-B,
• Friday, March 28, 2025: 81 for the month, 192 for the quarter, 192 for the year,
• 40512, conf, Phoenix Operating, Daniele 26-35 2 5H,
• 40511, conf, Phoenix Operating, Daniele 26-35-2 4H,
• 40510, conf, Phoenix Operating, Daniele 26-35-2 2H,
• 40509, conf, Phoenix Operating, Daniele 26-35-2 1H-LL,
• 40474, conf, Hess, GO-John-156-98-0508H-3,
• 40447, conf, Phoenix Operating, Daniele 26-35-2 3H,

RBN Energy: what's ahead for New England's power grid? Is more natural gas part of the answer?

Two factors — public concern about soaring utility bills and President Trump’s strong opposition to offshore wind — are forcing New England to rethink its once-ambitious plans for a renewables-heavy electric grid and reassess how to meet its power-generation needs in the late 2020s and early 2030s. One possibility would be to expand the region’s access to piped-in natural gas, but midstreamers’ previous efforts to add pipeline capacity were beaten back time and again. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss New England’s ongoing debate about what to do next. 

 

Five New Permits; Four Permits Renewed -- March 27, 2025

Locator: 48384B.

Just Stop Oil: it just took a bit of adulting.  

Electricity rates: North Dakota with lowest residential electricity rates -- EIA -- link here. Rate per kWh, drops below ten cents. In January, 2025: 9.93 cents.

• top three:
• North Dakota: 9.93 cents
• second lowest: Nebraska -- 10.56 cents
• third: Idaho -- 10.82
• others of interest:
• Minnesota: 14.53 cents
• Texas: 14.68 cents
• Massachusetts: 30.08 cents
• California: 30.22 cents 
• Industrial:
• North Dakota: 7.30 cents (last year: 7.43 cents)
• Texas: 6.59 cents
• California: 19.36 (think LDCs)

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $69.89.

Active rigs: 33.

Five new permits, #41745 - #41749, inclusive:

• Operators: Devon (4); CLR
• Fields: Wolf Bay (Dunn); wildcat (Divide County)
• Comments:
• CLR has a permit for a wildcat in Divide County, SESE 31-162-95; 
• to be sited 337 FSL and 650 FEL:
• Devon has permits for four Clark North wells, NWSE 28-147-92; 
• to be sited 2580/2443 FSL and 2210 / 2327 FEL.

Four permits renewed:

• Silver Hill, #38109 - #38112, inclusive, all LFM2 wells; Leaf Mountain, Burke County;