Monday, March 3, 2025

JPow: It's In Your Court Now -- March 3, 2025

Locator: 48450GDP.

GDP forecast continues to fall.

Next "Fed meeting": March 18 - 19, 2025.

Link here. 

1Q25, forecast:

Are we about to witness a reversal of historic proportions?

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Apple News -- March 3, 2025

Locator: 48449APPLE.

Neocons: wiki. 

Apple, link here.

Apple plans to announce new MacBook Air models with the M4 chip "as early as this week," according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman.
Expect new 13-inch and 15-inch MacBook Air models with Apple's already-released M4 chip, which has a 10-core CPU and a 10-core GPU.

Apple already updated the MacBook Pro, iMac, and Mac mini with M4 chips in October last year. Geekbench 6 results showed that the M4 chip is up to 25% faster than the M3 chip in terms of multi-core CPU performance.

Also in October, Apple increased the minimum RAM included in all MacBook Air models from 8GB to 16GB. The maximum RAM option could rise to 32GB.

Longer battery life is also likely.

This is what got my attention:

Following in the footsteps of the MacBook Pro, the next MacBook Air models will likely have an upgraded 12-megapixel camera with support for Center Stage, a feature that automatically keeps you centered on video as you move around. The camera should also support Desk View, which shows both you and an overhead view of your desk.
****************************
AirPort: Back to the Future
Apple discontinued the AirPort line in 2018, but the company could return to the Wi-Fi router market in an unexpected way in the future.

Back in December, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reported that Apple was developing its own Wi-Fi and Bluetooth chip that will debut in new Apple TV and HomePod mini models later this year. He said the chip is "so sophisticated" that it could "theoretically" turn these devices into a wireless access point. However, it is unclear if Apple will actually follow through with that idea, so temper your expectations for the time being.

Apple is reportedly aiming to make a bigger push into smart home products, with the company rumored to be planning an all-new smart home hub for release later this year. Apple is also said to be planning a HomeKit-enabled smart home camera that can connect to the hub, and together the products could serve as a home security system. If future Apple TV and/or HomePod models could effectively double as AirPort routers for Wi-Fi, that would be another way for Apple to expand its presence in the smart home market.
Apple's chip will support Wi-Fi 6E, according to Gurman, whereas the final AirPort models supported what is now known as Wi-Fi 5. However, Apple supply chain analyst Jeff Pu believes the chip will actually support Wi-Fi 7.

It remains to be seen if the Apple TV and HomePod actually become Wi-Fi routers, but Apple is seemingly developing technology that allows for it.
It seems like the profit margin would be about 90%. LOL.

********************************
Happy Birthday, Judah and Levi

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Monday Morning -- March 3, 2025

Locator: 48448B.

Texas two-step -- Apple and the economy: link to The WSJ.  Position 1.

Texas notched another technology win this week when Apple said it is planning a new 250,000-square-foot factory in Houston to make servers for an artificial-intelligence system.
Tech investments are transforming the Texas economy, often via companies from California in search of lower taxes and fewer regulations on land use and labor.
Austin already has Apple’s second-largest concentration of employees outside the company’s Cupertino, Calif., headquarters. Samsung has a large and expanding semiconductor presence in the state. Earlier this year, Meta moved its trust and safety teams responsible for writing policy and reviewing content from California to Texas and other U.S. locations.
Others have moved their headquarters there, including Realtor.com, Tesla and Hewlett Packard. (News Corp, owner of The Wall Street Journal, also operates Realtor.com.)
“In the end, it’s all about the cost of doing business, and the cost of doing business is just lower in Texas,” said John Diamond, an economist at Rice University in Houston.

Meanwhile, in Florida:

*************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $69.44.

New wells:

  • Tuesday, March 4, 2025: 11 for the month, 127 for the quarter, 127 for the year,
    • 41036, conf, BR, Phantom Ship 7B,
    • 39977, conf, BR, Manchester 2D,
  • Monday, March 3, 2025: 9 for the month, 125 for the quarter, 125 for the year, 
    • 39943, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2033-7BH,
  • Sunday, March 2, 2025: 8 for the month, 124 for the quarter, 124 for the year,
    • 40355, conf, Grayson Mill, Alfred South 20-22 3H,
    • 39833, conf, Hess, EN-Meiers-154-93-1324H-8,
    • 39832, conf, Hess, EN-Meiers-154-93-1324H-6,
    • 30433, conf, BR, Manchester 2C,
  • Saturday, March 1, 2025: 4 for the month, 120 for the quarter, 120 for the year,
    • 40566, conf, BR, Burned Edge 2A-ULW,
    • 40498, conf, Hess, EN-Weyrach A-LW-154-93-1720H-1
    • 39976, conf, BR, Manchester 2B,
    • 39954, conf, Hess, EN-Wefald-156-94-2413H-5,

RBN Energy: propane rtailers take the final step on propane's windy road.

More than 9 billion gallons of propane were delivered to U.S. consumer markets in 2024, primarily for residential heating and cooking. The final step in propane’s pathway to the retail market is managed by a large group of companies known as retailers, which range in size from “mom and pop” operations that run only a couple of cars serving a local market to companies with fleets of cars and multiple supply points. As we detail in today’s RBN blog, the propane business requires a huge focus on logistics and personal relationships. 

This is the third blog in our series about propane markets. In Part 1, we outlined the journey of propane from wellhead to burner tip and discussed the various segments of the domestic propane market, including industrial, petrochemical, commercial, residential and agricultural demand. We also introduced the role of wholesalers (middle column in Figure 1 below) and retailers (right column). In Part 2, we detailed the role of wholesalers, whose primary function is to aggregate supplies, operate logistics networks, trade propane and integrate midstream operations. Recently, in Should I Stay Or Should I Go?, we reviewed some issues facing wholesalers today. In today’s blog, we will review retailers’ role and purpose in the market.

Wholesale-to-Retail Propane Value Chain

Figure 1. Wholesale-to-Retail Propane Value Chain. Source: RBN

To get to the retailer, propane travels from the wholesaler (see RBN’s Propane Infrastructure Map for details about propane terminals, pipelines and rail) via transport trucks with a capacity of between 5,600 gallons and 20,950 gallons, with an average truck carrying 11,600 gallons. (For more on the propane molecule’s journey, check out The Long and Winding Road.) Propane is moved on these trucks to smaller bulk and retail store sites. From there it is picked up by bobtail trucks (see photo below) with a specialized design: a) a roughly 2,500-to-3,500-gallon tank (though both bigger and smaller-sized tanks are available), b) an onboard delivery system, and c) safety equipment, including but not limited to electrical grounding, pressure-relief valves and emergency gear. Bobtail trucks deliver propane into tanks at homes usually ranging from 100 gallons to 1,000 gallons, with larger tanks at some businesses. Some of the propane is delivered to sites where it is transferred into 20-gallon and other small tanks, such as those used for home grilling.

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The Weekend Edition -- March 3, 2025

Locator: 48447ARCHIVES.

NATO: Trump talking about cutting US troops in Europe by 20%.

Trump, Hegseth, and JD Vance just the guys to do it. Musk makes case for leaving NATO. Before we take too many hits from the other side: both George Washing and and John Quincy Adams warned against entangling alliances. The Cold War was over decades ago. We need staging areas, long runways, and a different way of thinking. These reasons alone justify "replacing" the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff. 

The new world order: it’s beginning. X is lighting up. Bluesky is imploding.

Neo-cons: trending.

GDP: proposal to remove government spending from formula — priceless. Does this guy ever quit thinking … or thinking out loud?

GPD: when trade accounts for 70% of one's GDP .... link here.

Zelenskyy: oops!


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Sunday, March 2, 2025

Somewhere, Something Is Being Lost In Translation -- March 2, 2025

Locator: 48446NVDA.

AI when asked: how many Blackwell GPUs will Nvidia ship in 2025:


 But then, we get this, link here:


Is there a possibility that "we're talking past each other with regard to Blackwell units" -- talking apples and oranges? Let's ask AI:


And then this, also from Beth, link here:

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Production For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- March 2, 2025

Locator: 48445WELLS.

The wells:

  • 40446, conf, Grayson Mill, Alfred South 20-22-5H, Elk,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20243521923853
11-20243381123672
10-2024325808725
9-2024254980
  • 39951, conf, Hess, EN-Wefald-156-24-2413H-4, Big Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20241491122851
11-20242661032836
10-2024123605895
9-2024131971875
  • 40859, conf, BR, West Ranch 4D-MBH-ULW-B, Elidah, npd,
  • 40445, conf, Grayson Mill, Alfred South 20-22 4H, Elk,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20243723127607
11-20243039722064
10-2024303128623
9-2024207570
  • 41035, conf, BR, Phantom Ship 7C, Elidah, npd,
  • 26467, conf, Grayson Mill, Scott 150-99-13-24-4H, Siverston,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20241150
10-202493249331
  • 25271, conf, Grayson Mill, Holm 150-99-13-24-2H, Siverston,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20242030
10-20241830511929
  • 25270, conf, Grayson Mill, Holm 150-99-13-24-3H, Siverston,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20242250
10-20241910016103
  • 40472, conf, Hess, GO-John-156-98-0508H-5, Wheelock,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20242809543793
11-20242035626819
10-20243227071829
9-20243103060778
  • 26468, conf, Grayson Mill, Scott 150-99-13-24-5H, Siverston,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20241730
10-2024141121358
  • 40496, conf, Hess, GO-Olson-157-98-2536H-4, Oliver,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20241383719483
11-20241122314919
10-20241281427092
9-20241891621791
  • 40370, conf, Enerplus, LK-Quilliam 147-97-14-23-8H, Little Knife,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20242531640130
11-20242363642095
10-2024302111548
9-20244688575543
  • 40366, conf, Enerplus, LK-Erickson 147-97-11-2-5H-LL, Little Knife,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20242639344788
11-20242185941001
10-20243432176199
9-20242884049766
  • 40363, conf, Enerplus, LK-Quilliam 147-97-14-23-5H-LL, Little Knife,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20242405738367
11-20242314838769
10-20242876162329
9-20242829839416
  • 40204, conf, Hess, EN-Weyrauch A-LW-154-93-1719H-2, Robinson Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20242592434519
11-20242163024693
10-20241319327423
9-20242866723852
  • 39945, conf, Hunt Oil, Halliday 146-93-10-2H-1, Bailey,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2024113084010
11-2024151039074
10-2024206729403
9-2024200616965
  • 39834, conf, Hess, EN-Meiers_154-93-1324H-9, Robinson Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20241478617982
11-20241443614154
10-20241175810189
9-202473285868
  • 41017, conf, WGO Resources, Koon Harkins 1-35. Wildcat, npd,
  • 39978, conf, BR, Manchester 2E, Little Knife, npd,
  • 39944, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2033-8BH, Fertile Valley,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2024177204883
11-2024220966835
10-2024184397315
9-20242611689
  • 41036, conf, BR, Phantom Ship 7B, Eliday, npd,
  • 39977, conf, BR, Manchester 2D, Little Knife, npd,
  • 39943, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2033-7BH, Fertile Valley,
ateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2024207556115
11-2024242597779
10-2024195277822
  • 40355, conf, Grayson Mill, Alfred South 20-22 3H, Elk,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20243607025539
11-20243435124513
10-2024239866861
9-2024354590
  • 39833, conf, Hess, EN-Meiers-154-93-1324H-8, Robinson Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20241228115217
11-20241244012186
10-202468665689
9-202479441854
  • 39832, conf, Hess, EN-Meiers-154-93-1324H-6, Robinson Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20241580619860
11-20241575817922
10-202494308302
9-20241605514114
  • 30433, conf, BR, Manchester 2C, Little Knife, npd,
  • 40566, conf, BR, Burned Edge 2A-ULW, Charlson, npd,
  • 40498, conf, Hess, EN-Weyrach A-LW-154-93-1720H-1, Robinson Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20242295328848
11-20242300429963
10-20243134434197
9-20244927234789
  • 39976, conf, BR, Manchester 2B, Little Knife, npd,
  • 39954, conf, Hess, EN-Wefald-156-94-2413H-5, Big Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20242208631606
11-20242087127242
10-20242493432262
9-2024334053784
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Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- March 2, 2025

Locator: 48444WELLS.

Wednesday, March 12, 2025: 31 for the month, 147 for the quarter, 147 for the year, 
None.

Tuesday, March 11, 2025: 31 for the month, 147 for the quarter, 147 for the year, 
40446, conf, Grayson Mill, Alfred South 20-22-5H,
39951, conf, Hess, EN-Wefald-156-24-2413H-4,

Monday, March 10, 2025: 29 for the month, 145 for the quarter, 145 for the year,
40859, conf, BR, West Ranch 4D-MBH-ULW-B,
40445, conf, Grayson Mill, Alfred South 20-22 4H,
41035, conf, BR, Phantom Ship 7C,
26467, conf, Grayson Mill, Scott 150-99-13-24-4H,
25271, conf, Grayson Mill, Holm 150-99-13-24-2H,
25270, conf, Grayson Mill, Holm 150-99-13-24-3H,

Sunday, March 9, 2025: 23 for the month, 139 for the quarter, 139 for the year, 
40472, conf, Hess, GO-John-156-98-0508H-5,
26468, conf, Grayson Mill, Scott 150-99-13-24-5H,

Saturday, March 8, 2025: 21 for the month, 137 for the quarter, 137 for the year,
None.

Friday, March 7, 2025: 21 for the month, 137 for the quarter, 137 for the year, 
40496, conf, Hess, GO-Olson-157-98-2536H-4,
40370, conf, Enerplus, LK-Quilliam 147-97-14-23-8H,
40366, conf, Enerplus, LK-Erickson 147-97-11-2-5H-LL,
40363, conf, Enerplus, LK-Quilliam 147-97-14-23-5H-LL,

Thursday, March 6, 2025: 17 for the month, 133 for the quarter, 133 for the year,
40204, conf, Hess, EN-Weyrauch A-LW-154-93-1719H-2,
39945, conf, Hunt Oil, Halliday 146-93-10-2H-1,
39834, conf, Hess, EN-Meiers_154-93-1324H-9,

Wednesday, March 5, 2025: 14 for the month, 130 for the quarter, 130 for the year,
41017, conf, WGO Resources, Koon Harkins 1-35.
39978, conf, BR, Manchester 2E,
39944, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2033-8BH,

Tuesday, March 4, 2025: 11 for the month, 127 for the quarter, 127 for the year,
41036, conf, BR, Phantom Ship 7B,
39977, conf, BR, Manchester 2D,

Monday, March 3, 2025: 9 for the month, 125 for the quarter, 125 for the year, 
39943, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2033-7BH,

Sunday, March 2, 2025: 8 for the month, 124 for the quarter, 124 for the year,
40355, conf, Grayson Mill, Alfred South 20-22 3H,
39833, conf, Hess, EN-Meiers-154-93-1324H-8,
39832, conf, Hess, EN-Meiers-154-93-1324H-6,
30433, conf, BR, Manchester 2C,

Saturday, March 1, 2025: 4 for the month, 120 for the quarter, 120 for the year,
40566, conf, BR, Burned Edge 2A-ULW,
40498, conf, Hess, EN-Weyrach A-LW-154-93-1720H-1
39976, conf, BR, Manchester 2B,
39954, conf, Hess, EN-Wefald-156-94-2413H-5,
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Sunday -- March 2, 2025

Locator: 48443ARCHIVES.

Politics: the big kerfuffle today -- did Zelenskyy or did Zelenskyy not campaign for Kamala Harris in the most recent campaign. Link here to the French press.


Politics: in less than 24 hours, in less than one news cycle, President Trump:
  • has completely flipped his party's support for Ukraine;
  • has prompted the launch of NATO- (NATO without US);
  • has established an entire new world order:
    • US, Russia, Turkey :: Turkey, Ukraine, western Europe
  • has forced the opposition to argue for the war to last longer
  • has saved the American taxpayer $350 billion.

NATO: and now he's ready to cut the number of US troops in Europe by 20%. Trump, Hegseth, and JD Vance would be the guys to pull it off.

Equity markets, over time, link here:

Texas: US space center. We've always had NASA. Then SpaceX. Then Intuitive Machines. Now Firefly Aerospace.  Link here. One wonders if there might be better mining opportunities on the moon than in Ukraine?

NVDA: said it so much better than I could have said it. Link here.

INTC: delays Ohio chip plant ... to next decade. Was supposed to start production by 2026. Link here. And whatever happened to that supposed takeover? From two weeks ago.

Chip war: sparse, early notes. 

I don't know if the book is relevant any more -- things move way too quickly in this sector, but it certainly provides a nice review of perhaps why we are where we are. I don't know, but at the time, I was thrilled I read The Chip War. Again, not sure if it's even worth reading any more, things change so quickly. But a very, very easy read and really well organized. Link to WSJ article, December 30, 2024.

Energy: Burgum had the soundbite of the year with regard to energy -- the US is not in an energy transition" mode; the US is in an energy addition mode. Dan Tsubouchi has been beating this drum as long as I've been following him on x. Link here. Also from Dan, origin of oil by PADD. I think I just read somewhere Trump has moved the goal posts slightly:

  • China: no change; will add 10% to current levies;
  • Canada: no change. still 25%
  • Mexico: maybe shave 10 - 15% --> making initial tariffs 15% at the high end; 10% at the low end.

Speaking of Mexico: there are reports that Trump is sending an additional combat-experienced Army unit to the border -- 3,000 soldiers out of Colorado. Eager to know where they're being sent; mission. Comes on news of 30 top Mexican cartel leaders turned over to the US by the Mexican president. 

My hunch: the Zelenskyy meeting will have repercussions this next week. It's hard to believe that the White House staff didn't get marching orders from Trump / JD Vance as soon as that meeting was over. Zelenskyy better be praying that Trump settles down, and talks to some cooler heads. Trump may not like what he hears on Sunsday morning news programs.

For the archives, YouTube diplomacy:

Alibaba: for the archives. I have no interest. I may regret those four words thirty years from now.

Buffett:

  • link here, slashes his exposure to US stocks. That's the headline; hardly the reality.

Re-posting: Bank of New York. Might discuss this later. Memo to self -- dividends. Link to The WSJ. 


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Saturday, March 1, 2025

March 1, 2025

Locator: 48442ARCHIVES.

RFK, Jr: measles is now "a top priority." Or something to that effect. He apparently said the government is providing vaccines. Whatever that means. Again, cool, calm, and collected. No national lock down, no universal masking, no hysteria.

President Jill, link here.

Star gazing! Actually looking at the solar system line-up last night -- it didn't get dark enough early enough to see some of the early planets, but we saw several, of course, Mars, Jupiter, and Venus. And despite the urban light, not a problem for what we wanted to do. We were on one of the nicest bridges in the area with an unobstructed view. Next: the full moon March 14, 2025. Sophia's only complaints: no snacks. We will do better next time. LOL.

Never quit reading: reading the great literature and historical analyses that came out of WWI has helped me understand the meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy yesterday -- the meeting in which Zelenskyy said there will be "no compromises" and Trump responded, and then "there will be no deal." Which I do believe is how deals work. The big question I have: why did Zelenskyy visit the White House yesterday. Either "something was lost in translation" when the meeting was scheduled or Zelenskyy backed out on his word.

For the birds:

  • the Mesozoic Era: 252 to 66 mya
  • the Age of Reptiles but also:
    • birds and early mammals evolved, and flowering plants appeared
  • the three periods
    • Triassic
    • Jurassic -- Archaeopteryx
    • Cretaceous -- Baminornis

Now, from The WSJ: big headline, but essentially nothing more than confirming that true birds evolved during the Jurassic. Whoo-hoo!

For more than a century, scientists believed that a fossil of a winged dinosaur from the Jurassic Period discovered 160 years ago in Germany represented the earliest birds.
Now, researchers have unearthed another creature from the same period that more closely resembled the avians of today.
The findings indicate that birds evolved much earlier than previously thought. [Somewhat of an exaggeration/hyperbole.]
Weighing about 3.5 ounces, the newly discovered bird, known as Baminornis zhenghensis, had a short tail with some vertebrae fused into a stubby nubbin—a crucial aerodynamic feature of modern birds that shifts the body’s center of mass toward the wings, improving flight.
Primitive creatures with bone structures resembling modern birds weren’t believed to have appeared until nearly 20 million years later [a geologic blink of the eye], in the early Cretaceous Period. But the new fossil, uncovered in southeastern China in 2023, tells a different evolutionary story.
“If there are still any doubts about how birdy Archaeopteryx is,” he said, “Baminornis is undoubtedly a real bird.”
Immigration, from PowerLine:



Border security:somehow the US Congress needs to codify the Trump successes in boarder security.
 
The more data one sees from the Biden administration reveals ...

Aid to Ukraine, link here. I doubt this includes assets maintained, owned, operated by US military personnel and the expenses those US military personnel cost the US taxpayer. The numbers below work out to 20 cents / American /day vs 8 cents / Canadian / day.


China coal, link here:


BRK, 4Q25, link here:


Compare with AppEconomy's view of NVDA. 

BNY, link here.


Warren Buffett and BofA, link here:

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Nvidia 4Q24 Earnings

Locator: 48444NVDA.

Tag: Nvidia NVDA LDC large data centers Texas

Link here.

Data center power demand, Texas, link here:



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Personal Savings Rate And Personal Current Transfer Payments -- March 1, 2025

Locator: 48444ECONOMY.

This link from ZeroHedge was sent to me by a reader. The charts are interesting. I'm not convinced the author's interpretations are accurate. 

Savings rate, January, 2025: soared, from 3.5% to 4.6%. The chart at ZeroHedge only goes back to January, 2024. This chart goes back much farther, Trading Economics. Most amazing to me: how fast the change in personal savings rate can fluctuate from month to month.

Personal current transfer payments to the rest of the world: link here.

So, now, we can link these two data points together and track them for awhile to see if there if any relationship going forward.

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