US Crude Oil Inventories INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY -- September 7, 2017

This will extend the time to re-balance for a few more months.

From the weekly petroleum report.

US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the SPR) increased by 4.6 million bbls. In the past 19 weeks, there have only been three weeks in which crude oil inventories rose, and, by far, this was the greatest increase ... and the US summer driving season has come to an end.

At 462.4 million bbls, US crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year (the report did not say over how many years the "average" was determined). The average was pulled up significantly by the Saudi surge between 2014 and 2016, so saying US inventories are in the upper half is not good news for oil bulls.

Following the report, the price of WTI reversed its upward trend, and is now trading below $49 again, down about one-half percent.

Interestingly, total motor gasoline inventories decreased 3.2 million bbls last week despite the fact that Texans were not driving because they had run out of gasoline, post-Harvey. Regardless, gasoline inventories remain  near the upper limit of the average range, so if you think you are over-paying for gasoline ... guess what, you probably are.

Weeks to re-balance (to see how this works, previous "re-balancing" links will explain it:

Week	Date	Drawdown	Storage	Weeks to RB
Week 0	Apr 26, 2017		529.0	180
Week 1	May 3, 2017	0.9	528.0	198
Week 2	May 10, 2017	6	522.0	50
Week 3	May 17, 2017	1.8	520.2	59
Week 4	May 24, 2017	4.4	515.8	51
Week 5	May 31, 2017	6.4	509.9	41
Week 6	June 7, 2017	-3.3	513.2	60
Week 7	June 14, 2017	1.7	511.5	57
Week 8	June 21, 2017	2.5	509.0	62
Week 9	June 28, 2017	-0.2	509.2	71
Week 10	July 6, 2017	6.3	502.9	58
Week 11	July 12, 2017	7.6	495.3	47
Week 12	July 19, 2017	4.7	490.6	43
Week 13	July 26, 2017	7.2	483.4	38
Week 14	August 2, 2017	1.5	481.9	37
Week 15	August 9, 2017	6.5	475.4	35
Week 16	August 16, 2017	8.9	466.5	30
Week 17	August 23, 2017	3.3	463.2	29
Week 18	August 30, 2017	5.4	457.8	27
Week 19	September 7, 2017	-4.6	462.4	32

At the current average rate of decline, it will still take 32 weeks to re-balance.

Other data points of interest from the weekly petroleum report:

• refinery inputs averaged 14.5 million b/d; about 3.3 million b/d less than the previous week's average (due to refineries shut down due to Hurricane Harvey)
• refineries operated at 80% capacity vs usual 97%+ 
• crude oil imports hardly decreased at all -- testament to a lot of hard word, American ingenuity

Refinery runs: hit record low due to Hurricane Harvey - link here. Data points:

• refinery utilization rates dropped 16.9 percentage points to 79.7 percent of total capacity
• lowest level since data started being kep in 1992
• crude oil inventories rose 4.6 million bbls; forecast for 4 million bbl

*******************************************

 Alan Turing: The Enigma

inspired the film, The Imitation Game

Andrew Hodges

c. 1983, 2014

DDS: 510HOD

As mentioned earlier, I am in my Margaret Sanger phase. I had not expected this phase to last long, but I may be surprised.

This passage from Andrew Hodges' biography of Alan Turing seems to dovetail exactly with excerpts from the biography of Margaret Sanger and the biography of "the pill." From Alan Turing: The Enigma, page 259:

In the spring of 1941 Alan developed a new friendship. It was with Joan Clarke, a fact which presented him with a very difficult decision. First they had gone out together to the cinema a few times, and spent some leave days together. Soon everything was pointing in one direction. He proposed marriage, and Joan gladly accepted.

Many people, in 1941, would not have thought it important that marriage did not correspond with his sexual desires; the idea that marriage should include a mutual sexual satisfaction was still a modern one, which had not yet replaced the older idea of marriage as a social duty. One thing that Alan never questioned was the form of the marriage relationship, with the wife as housekeeper. But in other ways he took a modern view, and above all was honest to a fault. So he told her a few days later that they should not count on it working out, because he had "homosexual tendencies."

And then several pages of most fascinating reading about a wonderful relationship.

By the way, in the movie The Imitation Game, Keira Knightley plays Joan Clarke, "who became engaged to Turing." 

Reminds me of Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy.

The Proudest, Loneliest Fool, Charlie Rich
From wiki:

Charlie Rich and his wife were driving to Florida for a vacation after seeing their son Allan perform with Freddy Fender at Lady Luck Casino in Natchez, Mississippi when he experienced a bout of severe coughing.

After visiting a doctor in St. Francisville, Louisiana, and receiving antibiotics, he continued traveling until he stopped to rest for the night. Rich died in his sleep on July 25, 1995, in a Hammond, Louisiana motel; he was 62 years old. The cause of death was a pulmonary embolism. He was buried in the Memorial Park Cemetery in Memphis, Tennessee.

1995, he died. I saw him in concert in 1974, or thereabouts. Spectacular show. Incredible seats.