Monday, July 15, 2013

New All-Time Production Record For North Dakota; Some New Comments Worth Noting; Poll Results

Updates

July 19, 2013: Motley Fool finally gets around to reporting on record production despite a record-setting wet month in North Dakota.  

Original Post

Source.

April oil 23,815,546 barrels = 793,852 barrels/day
May oil 25,114,011 barrels = 810,129 barrels/day (preliminary)(NEW all-time high)

A 2.05% increase.

Exceeded Genscape's forecast of 1.5%.

Huge.

Note: it is likely that the final figure will be revised up slightly by the time of the next report.

Now, for the rest of the data.

Oil production, as noted above. 

Natural gas production also hit a new all-time high (up by an astounding 4.5%).

June permitting was down to 165, from 211 in May and 202 in April.

Price of crude on day of report: $97 vs average of $86 in June. Sweet.

The average number of days to drill a well from spud to total depth is at just under 22 days, but the average number of days from total depth to initial production has increased to 92. Load restrictions have remained in place longer than ever before because May 2013 was the wettest on record [global warming, climate change, extreme weather, whatever].

Drilling permit activity was down sharply in May. There is sufficient permit inventory to accommodate multi-well pads, the inability to construct locations during load restrictions, and the time required to deal with federal hydraulic fracturing rules if required. 

The number of rigs on the Fort Berthold Reservation is down 4 to 21.
 
Crude oil take away capacity continues to be adequate as long as rail deliveries to the coasts keep growing (is this a reference to recent rail mishap in Quebec?).

Number of wells waiting to be fracked has increased; the estimate is now about 500 wells waiting to be fracked which is up 10 from the previous estimate.

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Results of the poll in which we asked a few days ago whether North Dakota oil production would increase or decrease in May, the wettest May on record:
  • would increase by more than 1%: 76%
  • would increase, but less than 1%: 14%
  • would decrease: 11%
Regular readers probably know the three reasons by oil production increased by more than 1% in May. 

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