Sunday Night Ramblings, Part 2 -- April 28, 2019

25 cents: that's what some cities in California now charge customers who do not use reusable coffee cups. That's fine. I now make my coffee at home; put it in a reusable Starbucks "thermos" and take it to Starbucks. Saving about $1.90 every morning. Next: bring toast and jam from home and forego the chocolate croissant. LOL. That will save another $2.00 every morning.

Who says America isn't great?

Frozen over: "Northwest Passage" frozen over. Tours canceled.

No mystery: high California gasoline prices should be no mystery -- Motley Fool. This is a good article. Governor Newsome taking a page out of Governor Brown's playbook.

Open book test, from a reader, this link:

I came across this very useful GUI illustration of power plants status worldwide. The data can be viewed by subcategories such as by nation set (e.g., European Economic Union, China, etc.). This helps defeat several notions floating around and touted by environmentalists. It is easy to see which groups of people are preparing for a low cost economic future with cost effective electric energy; versus, which are doing the opposite.

Stock market records: but it's a different kind of boom. Wow, how long have "we" been talking about inflation?

The major difference between now and last September is the outlook for inflation. In the autumn investors thought inflation would be at or above the Fed’s target, with a risk that the tight jobs market would lead to a spiral of rising wages and higher prices.

Investors now think inflation will be lower for longer, but not so low that deflation will again be a threat. The probability of inflation above 3% over the next five years has dropped from one-in-five in September to just one-in-10, according to probabilities derived from options markets by the Minneapolis Fed, after matching its post-2008 low at the start of this year. Meanwhile the implied chance of inflation being below 1%, dangerously close to deflation—briefly feared during the December in panic—has receded back to where it stood in September.

GDP: lots of "back and forth" recently about first reading, 1Q19, US GDP. Here's another story, this one from The WSJ:

For much of past year, it looked plausible that a faster-growing U.S. economy was simply running on a sugar high of temporarily elevated demand.

Now signs are emerging that the supply side of the economy—the workers and the tools and machines they use to produce goods and services—is becoming energized, improving the chances that faster growth can be sustained.

It’s not a sure thing. It could fade. It’s also not clear who or what deserves credit for driving it, but it’s a great development for Americans if it continues, regardless of your political coloring. If sustained, it would mean more income growth in the long-run with less inflation eating away at those income gains.

You can boost economic growth in the short-run by juicing demand, such as with tax cuts or spending increases. But you can only sustain faster growth in the long-run with more workers producing goods and services more efficiently.

Without labor force and productivity growth, demand dissipates on its own absent additional outside stimulus. Or the increased demand strains the economy’s resources, spurring inflation and a central bank response of higher interest rates that in turn slows growth or causes recession.

The "southern surge" will prevent wage inflation.

 

 Southern surge: once the cities in the southwest become saturated, ICE will start sending new immigrants to Iowa and Minnesota.

The Immigrant Song, Led Zeppelin