It's Not Even Spin Any More; It's Boiler Plate: First Time Unemployment Claims Surge 28,000 And AP Says It's All Okay; Doesn't Even Say The Surge Was Twice What Was Expected

Updates

Later, 9:01 p.m. central time: In the original post below you will note that analysts had expected an increase of 16,000 applications, almost half of the actual number, 28,000. The "16,000" number happens to be coincidental with the number of employees Hewlett-Packard (H-P) may lay off due to worsening profit margins. Reuters is reporting:

Hewlett-Packard Co plans to cut as many as 16,000 more jobs in a major ramp-up of CEO Meg Whitman's years-long effort to turn around the personal computer maker and relieve pressure on its profit margins.

Whitman said the turnaround remained on track and her raised target reflected how HP continued to find areas to streamline across its broad portfolio, which encompasses computing, networking, storage and software. But some analysts wondered whether it signaled a worsening outlook for the coming year, or if more jobs may be cut.

Original Post

AP is reporting:

The number of people seeking U.S. unemployment benefits jumped last week, but remained at a low level that suggests hiring should remain steady.

Applications rose 28,000 to a seasonally adjusted 326,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. The increase comes after applications fell to their lowest level since May 2007 two weeks ago. [28,000? Remember back in January, 20, 2014, when everyone agreed the jobs report was a very, very bad report? At that time, the jump was "only" 19,000. This time it jumps 28,000 and AP simply ignores it/doesn't put it in perspective.  The note from January 30, 2014: a BAD, BAD, BAD report, surging first time claims, up 19,000 and the revised number next week will show a higher number.] [Remember this? September 13, 2012: stunningly high increase in jobless claims blamed on ... a tropical storm; rose 15,000! to 382,000. That was a huge news story, jumping 15,000 and yet today (May 22, 2 014), the jump was 28,000 and no one takes notice.]

The four-week average, a less volatile measure, dipped 1,000 to 322,500. The average reached a seven-year low of 312,000 last month. Applications are a proxy for layoffs, so the low levels suggest companies are cutting few jobs.

The AP fails to note that analysts forecast a rise of "only" 16,000 applications.  In fact, the 28,000 is almost double what was forecast and with revisions that will come out next week, it's possible the 28,000 will be closer to 32,000, which would be double. But the AP says, "hey, it's not so bad. Things are on track."

The AP also fails to note that the 28,000 rise this week exceeded the "huge" drop last week of 24,000. 

Buried several paragraphs down and despite the spin/boiler plate, it's all bad news six years into the recovery:

The unemployment rate in April (last month) "plunged" to 6.3 percent from 6.7 percent.

But the rate drop occurred because fewer people looked for work. The government doesn't count people as unemployed unless they are actively searching. [When everybody out of a job quits looking for work, the unemployment rate will hit 0% and Mr Obama will make a speech. And then go golfing.]

In the first four months of this year, employers have added an average of 214,000 jobs a month, up from 194,000 last year. [Statistically relevant? I doubt it.]

The improved hiring may help boost economic growth for the rest of 2014. More jobs means more people with paychecks to spend. [Really? This tells me the audience this story for whom this story was written.]

The economy grew just 0.1 percent at an annual rate in the first three months of this year, largely because cold weather kept consumers away from shopping malls and discouraged home and car sales. Data that has been released since then suggests that the economy actually contracted in the first quarter by as much as 0.8 percent, analysts say. [No comment.]

The number of comments at the AP story (over 2,500 comments) suggests that readers know this is not a good news story; they can see through the AP's spin.

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A Note to the Granddaughters

I never knew this story was first printed in The New Yorker: the story of John F. Kennedy and his PT-109. 

It's the second or third installment in the The New Yorker anthology, 40s: The Story of a Decade, c. 2014.

It's written by John Hersey, titled, "Survival: June 17, 1944 (On Lieutenant John F. Kennedy)."

One can probably find it somewhere on the internet; I haven't searched. The author had happened to meet Jack Kennedy somewhere in the area of  Melville, Rhode Island, heard about the story, and asked if Kennedy would relate the particulars and have it published.

Kennedy's response: Talk to some of his crew at the Motor Torpedo Boat Training Center, Melville, Rhode Island, first. There, the author spoke with three enlisted men named Johnston, McMahon, and McGruire. And the rest is history as they say.

We've all heard the story, or at least the Reader's Digest version; it is something else to read it, based on first hand accounts. I'm glad I happened across it.