From SeekingAlpha, "be happy, don't worry."
- Trans Mountain expansion faced a big setback today when the Federal Court of Appeal quashed the government's approval to build the expansion;
- but valuation matters and Canadian heavy oil producers have already discounted the wider-than-normal spreads into the current price;
- crude by rail (CBR) remains the key catalyst to narrowing the discount near term, and this setback for Trans Mountain can actually push producers to ink multiyear crude by rail deals;
- With TMX now uncertain, Canadian oilsand capex will keep decreasing, which would push lower Canadian oil production, resulting in less global oil supplies. This could tighten global oil balances further;
- Because of the discounted valuations, we're bullish on Canadian heavy oil producers as we don't believe this is a material setback on fundamentals. Rather, it's only a setback on sentiment