Tuesday, April 12, 2011

IPs Continue to Confuse -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

I could pick any company and any Bakken well, but since I happen to be looking at the current corporate MDU presentation and having just linked the NDIC file reports, I will show newbies how IPs continue to confuse. [See first comment for explanation why the IP provided to the NDIC may be different than that presented to the public.]

In the MDU presentation, April, 2011, slide 20 of 53:
  • First discovery well in Three Forks formation, Stark County, Kostelecky 31-6H, 24-hour IP rate of
  • 1,257 bbls of oil, and 
  • 519 Mcf of gas, or 
  • 1,343 BOE
Now, from the official NDIC file report:
  • IP Oil: 595
  • IP MCF: 196
For newbies, that's just the way it is.

Several operators now agree that higher IPs correlate with faster payback on the well, and the total ultimate recovery. The easiest question for an analyst to ask when a corporate presentation is being provided is: "That's an impressive IP on the PowerPoint slide, but what was the "official" IP as reported to the NDIC?"

In addition, every time an IP is presented on a corporate slide, the type of frac, the number of stages, and the ingredients used to frac should be included. I would take it one step further. I would ask what did the operator learn about that particular frac that will help with the next well?