Joe: says he won't take salary. Will donate to charity. LOL. Didn't happen / isn't happening; just having some fun. LOL.
Military in transition: I've never had so much fun being a political spectator as I'm having now. Remember: the generals all hated Trump and wanted Biden; they got him. The surgeons are going to be busy.
Road to New Mexico: ditto. I think folks are going to learn how slowly a bureaucracy moves.
Market: futures suggest another huge day.
GME: up 10% in pre-market trading. Look what they've done to those shorts. LOL. Two data points:
- GME is/was the most shorted stock in the market:
- GME, $4/share last summer; closed at $77 yesterday and intraday high was much, much higher; so high, so fast, in fact, the SEC stopped trading in GME yesterday; not once, but twice -- in one day; look for more of the same today:
Tea leaves: no end in sight for the pandemic. Long live the pandemic.
China flu watch: today's CDC vaccination rollout numbers will be the most important barometer reading in the past ten days. The numbers should be reported at the end of the day. Yesterday's numbers were the worst since the rollout but I attribute that to weekend reporting.
OPEC+: I haven't followed "oil" very closely the last few days. Too much other stuff going on and, frankly, Biden has shut down the oil industry. What's to follow? Nothing. But it looks like the Mideast / OPEC (OPEC+?) is in deep trouble. Iraq is in talk with the IMF for an emergency loan of $6 billion to stay afloat. Now this headline over at oilprice: Saudi Arabia is on the brink of losing control of oil markets. Just wait until Biden/Valerie lift sanctions on Iran.
Saudi Arabia is tackling a deepening deficit, an international green transition drive that seeks to make its main export commodtiy obsolete and a number of powerful rivals on the international oil markets.
Tom Brady: could make this the most-watched Super Bowl ever, "pandemic-adjusted," of course. The big story: some advertisers pulling out. Chipotle? Not. That's a bigger story than all those others pulling out. My hunch: those watching the Super Bowl will never even notice those advertisers that pulled out; they will notice those that have ads. One might recall "1984," the Apple ad. Tech companies have a lot of money this year to spend on the Super Bowl.
Apple, Inc: remains the most fascinating company in America today. The company defines / encapsulates America today. Two things are guaranteed to happen tomorrow: the sun "comes up" in the east; AAPL shares will not remain unchanged. AAPL's move tomorrow will be epic: only unknown? In which direction. LOL. It's a win-win either way.
No regrets. America has its America, the Beautiful. France has Edith Piaf, and absolutely no regrets. I'm lovin' it.
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
| $52.95 | 1/26/2021 | 01/26/2020 | 01/26/2019 | 01/26/2018 | 01/26/2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 12 | 56 | 65 | 57 | 38 |
No wells coming off confidential list today.
RBN Energy: the northeast gas market's slow march toward more takeaway constraints.
After a two-year reprieve from a nearly decade-long period of severe pipeline constraints and debilitating prices, Northeast natural gas producers are again headed for a constraint-driven market in the next five years. Appalachian supply prices last year weakened relative to national benchmark Henry Hub, reversing the gains of the past few years, and fell to historic lows as oversupply conditions prevailed and at times strained available takeaway capacity. All that despite the rig count hitting a four-year low and shale producers’ best — even unprecedented — efforts to respond to low prices with short-term production cutbacks during the shoulder seasons. So what happens when rig counts and production recover in the coming years? How long before pipeline constraints worsen and what are the prospects for new pipeline development? Today, we begin a blog series detailing recent supply-demand trends in the region and our outlook for 2021 and beyond.
As anomalous as 2020 was, it nevertheless serves as something of a bellwether for what’s to come for the Northeast gas market, so we kick off the blog series today with a review of major supply-demand trends from the past year.
On the supply side of the equation, it’s no surprise that production volumes faced numerous headwinds and were more price-sensitive on a short-term basis than ever in the region. Production was already challenged by a lower rig count heading into 2020. The Marcellus/Utica shale plays started the year with ~50 rigs, 23 fewer than in January 2019, and the rig count fell from there to a low of just 30 rigs by September — the lowest we’ve seen for the Appalachian producing region going back to at least early 2011.
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