Home prices: surge in prices reach the highest level seen since 2014. Link here.
U.S. home price growth surged in the penultimate month of 2020 to a level not seen in nearly seven years.
Standard & Poor’s said Tuesday that its S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index posted a 9.5% annual gain in November, up from 8.4% in October.
The last time the index reached this level was in February 2014.
The 20-City Composite posted a 9.1% annual gain, up from 8% the previous month. The national and 20-City beat estimates of 8.85% and 8.7%, respectively.
“The trend of accelerating home prices that began in June 2020 has now reached its sixth month with November’s emphatic report,” said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
“As COVID-related restrictions began to grip the economy last spring, their effect on housing prices was unclear. Price growth decelerated in May and June before beginning a steady climb upward. November’s report continues that acceleration in a particularly impressive manner.”
For realtors: if this is what the pandemic is all about, long live the pandemic.
My hunch: the first wave of those fleeing to greener pastures was just the beginning. Once the word gets out that the 2021 - 2022 school year is going to be more of the same, watch for a second wave. Teachers in NYC and Chicago have no plans on returning to the classroom and the new CEO/CIC supports them.
Tomorrow I have a Webex meeting with my broker. LOL. I would have known nothing about Webex had it not been for our six-year-old "remote learner." I have the Webex app on my computer. My hunch: a lot more families are going to get very, very familiar with Webex. On this one: the winner is Cisco, the loser? Apple.
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Right On Cue
I did not see this when writing the post above. I suggested that the 2021 - 2022 school year will be more of the same.
Then I saw this: IMF raises global growth forecasts, expects "low levels" of Covid-19 by end of 2022." That's not a typo. The IMF doesn't see "low levels" of Covid -19 until the end of 2022.
Think about that. The "end of 2022" is December, 2022. That school year begins in August/September, 2022.
So, we get a third wave of "movers." And that's if everything "goes well."
First wave: school year, currently in, 2020 - 2021.
Second wave: next school year, 2021 - 2022.
Third wave: school year, 2022 - 2023.
By the way, mid-term elections will be in late 2022. Just saying. By that time, most moms will be fed up with teachers in NYC and Chicago.
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The Market
The market: S&P sets a new all-time high; Dow jumps after J&J, 3M top estimates.
If this is what the pandemic looks like, long live the pandemic. My hunch: things are not as rosy as they look with regard to the pandemic. Which, of course, is good for the market. The frog - boiling water analogy? Maybe.
From the Yahoo!Finance daily letter yesterday: earnings are beating expectations by a massive margin.
Remember all that hand-wringing a month ago -- that it was going to be a really, really bad earnings season.
Not to be.
It's early in the earnings season with about 13% of the S&P 500 having reported results through last Friday.
This week is one of the biggest weeks for reporting.
In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 22.4% above the estimates, which is also above the five-year average of 6.3%.
If 22.4% of the final percentage for the quarter, it will mark the second-largest earnings surprise percentage reported by the index since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008.
The bad news: earnings for energy companies have yet to be reported. This will pull the percent way down.
But if you not invested in energy companies, what's not to like?
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