Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- February 14, 2023

And here we go: CPI -- so many numbers -- we'll let the market so this out. Archived here.

• before the CPI came, Dow futures up 61 points
• holy mackerel: Dow now up 200 points; now settling in at 160 points up in pre-market
• now, back to flat / slightly negative -- 10 minutes later
  
• WTI: unchanged; down $1.14; trading at $79.00
  
• as the CPI was announced: Dow to zero and even went negative
• the Fed only interested in "super-core" -- which excludes food, energy, and shelter 
• 6.4% -- CPI
• 5.6% y/y -- core
  
• 4.6% y/y -- super-core (needs to be fact-checked)
  
• pretty much came in as expected
• diverging: analysts' interpretation vs investors
  
• Liesman: 
• concentrating on the "full" CPI (which includes food, energy, and shelter) but that's not what the Fed is watching
• wages: up a bit; consumer should be in good shape 
• Liesman seems to have it "right" today; happy to see progress, slow as it is
• the "rate hike" story is "dead"
  

Story of the week: Berkshire Hathaway owns 80% of Pilot Flying J. Link here. Brilliant. If anyone saw this coming, no one was talking about it.

Coal: Pakistan to quadruple coal power capacity. Link here.

Apple: on a roll.

• was the official sponsor of the Super Bowl; third most watch Super Bowl in history; halftime Rhianna was a huge hit
• seeking NBA streaming ticket deal
• M3 coming
• former Apple designer Jony Ive designed the emblem for the coronation of King Charles III; link here. 

Earnings:

• companies able to pass on costs to consumers
  
• Coca-Cola had a great quarter;
• so did Burger King

********************************
Back to the Bakken

Most egregious story of the week in the Bakken: GOP representative from Williston votes to penalize six-year-olds who don't have lunch money. Are you kidding me? Am I misreading this? The richest folks in the state actually had to think about this. The GOP continues to move away from me. Link here. Even worse, the majority hardly does the right thing ... the bill is greatly watered down and to get here much discussion was required. I'm appalled. I would love to see Harold Hamm come forward and sort this out the "right" way. WWJD?

North Dakota lawmakers have advanced a bill to prevent schools from withholding meals to students with modest lunch debts.

Meanwhile, a Republican-led committee stripped down a separate proposal to provide free lunches to all K-12 students in the state.

The bipartisan bill sponsored by Rep. Zac Ista, D-Grand Forks, originally sought to bar schools from denying lunches to all students with unpaid meal balances. The House Education Committee amended the bill so it would only prohibit schools from withholding lunches if students’ meal debt is less than a week old.

The North Dakota House of Representatives voted 89-1 on Monday, Feb. 13, to approve House Bill 1494, which supporters say will curb “lunch shaming” of school children. Rep. Scott Dyk, R-Williston, was the lone vote in opposition. The legislation will head to the Senate.

Active rigs: 45.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $79.00.

Natural gas: $2.550.

Wednesday, February 15, 2023: 41 for the month; 111 for the quarter, 111 for the year
39006, conf, CLR, Rhonda 4-28H1,
38882, conf, WPX, Palo Pinto 20-17HB,
38430, conf, Whiting, Lindley 41-7-2H,
38425, conf, Hess, HA-Dahl-LE-152-95-0706H-1,

Tuesday, February 14, 2023: 37 for the month; 107 for the quarter, 107 for the year
39007, conf, CLR, Rhonda 10-28H1,
38881, conf, WPX, Palo Pinto 20-17-8HZL,
38644, conf, Oasis, Linda Federal 5301 44-12 6B,

RBN Energy: what's ahead for refined products in the US and abroad. Archived.

Over the next couple of years — and the next couple of decades — global supply/demand dynamics in refined products markets will be driven by two critically important factors. The first is the understandable reluctance of refiners to expand capacity in the face of climate policy and ESG headwinds. The second is a growing gap between policymakers’ aggressive energy-transition goals and the global pivot to a renewed focus on energy security brought about by the Russia-Ukraine war and worries about China’s global ambitions

These factors, which will fuel the prospects for constrained supply and higher-for-longer demand, have far-reaching implications, not only for refinery owners but also for E&Ps, midstreamers, exporters, energy industry investors and policymakers, all of whom need to gain a clearer understanding of what’s just ahead — and what’s over the horizon, just out of sight. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss key findings in “Future of Fuels,” a new, in-depth report by RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics practice on everything you need to know about U.S. and global supply and demand for gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and biofuels over the short-, medium- and long-term.