More Signs That Things May Be Improving -- January 24, 2023

This is huge, if it holds. 

I would imagine "most of us" were more concerned about the European economy than the US economy with regard to a global recession. 

For the US, previously posted, GDPNow:

From the linked WSJ article

Two of the world’s largest economies moved in opposite directions at the start of the year, with U.S. businesses reporting further declines in activity in January while the eurozone saw a modest pickup.

The divergence suggests that while the U.S. economy continues to lose momentum, Europe’s could be stabilizing, at least for now. The pace of contraction in U.S. firms slowed in January, according to new business surveys released Tuesday, a possible signal that the economy could be bottoming out, thanks to slowing inflation and resilient demand.

Combined, the surveys point to a global economy that looks likely to slow this year but could avoid recession. The receding threat of energy shortages in Europe, a still-growing U.S. economy, and China’s postpandemic reopening could offset the effect of higher prices and interest rates and keep the world from a steep downturn.

In the U.S., the economy continues to expand late last year, despite the Federal Reserve’s string of interest-rate increases designed to cool the economy and bring inflation under control. Higher rates have weighed heavily on certain sectors and could be causing households to pull back.

Some folks are suggesting that JPow could increase the Fed Rate by 50 basis points in February -- add 0.5% -- add a half-point -- to the current rate -- my wager, it's a two-parter:

• first part: the Fed raises the rate by only a quarter point;
• second part: "one and done