If Russia Is Happy With $50-Oil, Saudi Is In Deep Doo-Doo; Iraq Is In Even Worse Shape -- June 19, 2020

This is really, really cool.

Earlier today I posted:

Saudi breakeven: from "lower for longer," oilprice:

Normally, a forced production cut in U.S. shale would have been enough for a price rebound to levels that would allow the Gulf economies’ budgets to break even.

It is this breakeven that is important to them, not production costs that are notoriously the lowest in Saudi Arabia.

For all these low production costs, Riyadh needs $78.30 a barrel of Brent to clear its budget, and $58.10 a barrel of Brent to clear its current account.

And things are not much different for its Gulf neighbors.

Russia: happy with $50-oil. 

OPEC basket, today, link here: flat at $37.70.

What makes this so "cool," and interesting is the fact that back on June 12, 2020, I did my own calculations based on public data provided by Saudi Arabia and others, and came up with these figures:

Saudi called for a 2020 budget based on $110-oil when that budget released in late 2019.

Revised budget and revenue projections in early 2020 moved their target to $84-oil.

My hunch: my figures are closer to "reality" than others.  But even if not, $58.10 is a bit of a jump from $40, and the latter is far below $80.

I wonder if Art Berman pays attention to these numbers. But I digress. CLR is happy enough with these numbers to resume production.