Jobs Numbers Suprise; More Jobs Than Expected; No Wage Inflation -- February 1, 2019

Yesterday I mentioned that CNBC completely misread the weekly jobs report. Wow, was I correct on that one! Wow!

 
By the way, these are the four signs I see most often in Texas:

• no warning shots
• stop signs (advisory)
• DQ signs (Dairy Queen)
• "now hiring all shifts"

From the linked article:

The January jobs report shows the U.S. labor market is still chugging along.

The U.S. economy added 304,000 non-farm payrolls in the first month of 2019, ahead of consensus expectations of 165,000. This compares to a downwardly revised 222,000 in December, from 312,000 in the previous report.

The unemployment rate rose to 4%. December’s unemployment rate was left unchanged from 3.9% previously.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% over December and 3.2% over last year. This compares to consensus estimates of a 0.3% increase and 3.2% increase, respectively, for January average hourly earnings. In December, wage growth increased 0.4% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, after revisions. Hourly earnings are closely watched as a key gauge of inflation.

Did you all catch that intro to the third paragraph: no wage inflation. Repeat, in case Steve Liesman fails to mention it: no wage inflation. Okay, maybe some.

Recession? What recession?

Tell me again why we're supposed to be "resisting" or what we are "resisting"?

I tracked "jobs numbers" for several years. I then quit. I "understood" the methodology and the data and I got bored with the numbers. But if interested, one can start here. I provided what I called the "magic numbers" when I posted the "jobs report" the first time, and then updated it when the mainstream media moved the goalposts when Trump was elected president. Before the goalposts were moved, the magic numbers were defined by the mainstream press as:

First time claims, unemployment benefits: 400,000 (> 400,000: economic stagnation)

New jobs: 200,000 (however, now I see that the goal posts have been moved to 120,000) --  

Economists estimate the labor market needs to create about 125,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate steady, though estimates vary -- Reuters.

The Magic Numbers (change with Trump administration -- see this post)

First time claims, unemployment benefits: 275,000 (> 250,000: economic stagnation)

New jobs: less than 150,000 (less than150,000 new jobs: economic stagnation)

Economists estimate the labor market needs to create about 125,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate steady, though estimates vary -- Reuters.

Tell me again why we're supposed to be "resisting" or what we are "resisting"?

By clicking on this tag, "jobs," one can see how an "unexpected 304,000 jobs" compares with data points from the past.