Thursday, September 15, 2011

So, Which County Is Averaging Better IPs? McKenzie County or Mountrail County? -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

I will leave this up for just a few days and then remove it. It is simply raw data, very unscientific, but "anonymous" suggested that in the past few months, McKenzie County was reporting better IPs than Mountrail County.

So, let's see. 

In 2010, McKenzie County was granted 330 permits, compared to 426 permits for Mountrail County.
Of the wells that have reported IPs, the data is as follows. McKenzie is  the left hand column; Mountrail is the right column.

The average IP in McKenzie County (left hand column) is 1,274 bbls.
The average IP in Mountrail County (right hand column) is 1,141 bbls.

The IPs are generally taken from the official NDIC daily activity reports, but on many occasions I used data from corporate presentations. I was not always careful about bopd vs boepd, so the entire exercise is suspect. However, the law of large numbers would suggest that I made as many errors in each column (on a percentage basis) and thus the analysis is probably not too far off.

So, there you have it: a fairly meaningless exercise, but someone asked the question, and this is the data I have (as imprecise as it might be). 

McKenzie County                            Mountrail County

3
76 29
105 30
125 42
183 84
225 100
240 110
240 117
271 120
275 124
294 138
302 139
342 140
372 154
380 154
399 166
402 170
406 176
407 182
408 195
417 196
428 200
441 207
443 213
447 220
462 225
462 235
480 236
494 250
496 252
497 262
517 263
522 269
526 285
527 287
530 321
535 342
539 345
540 345
558 358
578 366
594 368
618 372
636 373
644 376
646 378
649 379
657 405
658 415
674 417
680 423
688 424
706 432
710 433
722 433
749 437
792 439
793 442
801 446
811 463
817 470
836 474
849 486
853 489
863 511
866 519
900 521
904 526
922 527
937 532
949 541
952 543
977 547
980 554
1,001 560
1,004 562
1,006 572
1,008 581
1,046 588
1,060 600
1,060 602
1,067 605
1,069 608
1,074 613
1,099 616
1,162 621
1,203 625
1,207 627
1,212 629
1,215 637
1,219 648
1,234 665
1,249 667
1,274 668
1,300 684
1,311 689
1,342 697
1,355 697
1,358 698
1,392 701
1,415 717
1,470 718
1,471 723
1,476 732
1,490 755
1,500 762
1,507 785
1,524 788
1,559 795
1,565 800
1,639 807
1,659 811
1,678 812
1,680 820
1,680 839
1,689 847
1,692 853
1,719 853
1,754 861
1,804 874
1,833 880
1,882 889
1,883 894
1,885 895
1,912 912
1,919 921
1,968 927
1,976 962
2,006 983
2,029 990
2,112 1,007
2,145 1,026
2,300 1,034
2,338 1,039
2,413 1,041
2,450 1,048
2,461 1,055
2,497 1,057
2,519 1,063
2,521 1,066
2,526 1,073
2,573 1,080
2,579 1,088
2,606 1,100
2,640 1,106
2,674 1,126
2,789 1,131
2,803 1,146
2,805 1,158
2,816 1,163
2,844 1,169
2,849 1,184
2,862 1,200
2,955 1,236
3,000 1,276
3,206 1,289
3,240 1,291
3,311 1,306
4,169 1,308
1,327
1,330
1,338
1,345
1,361
1,371
1,388
1,389
1,394
1,407
1,412
1,427
1,447
1,458
1,466
1,517
1,521
1,561
1,587
1,611
1,667
1,669
1,685
1,693
1,694
1,695
1,770
1,805
1,820
1,851
1,870
1,936
1,959
2,023
2,043
2,086
2,090
2,104
2,110
2,137
2,166
2,241
2,294
2,322
2,347
2,411
2,440
2,551
2,686
2,693
2,720
2,731
2,746
2,788
2,789
2,834
2,835
2,944
2,973
2,984
3,070
3,159
3,293
3,445
3,479
3,660
4,106
4,335
4,357
4,431
4,661
5,061