There is an interesting observation over on the Bakken Shale Discussion Board. Because I don't have access to the same data, I cannot verify the veracity of the observation, but my hunch is that the observation is accurate: EOG wells specifically, and probably Bakken wells in general, will stabilize after two to three years of production.
"David" has noted that EOG wells are consistently pumping 4,000 to 5,000 barrels/month after 2 - 3 years of production.
If accurate, my hunch is that the operators are cracking the code on a) the optimum length of horizontals; b) the optimum number of frack stages; and, c) the optimum mix of proppants (water, sand, ceramics).
It should also be noted, that once the wells are stabilized, the operators have great latitude in daily production of an individual well.
On top of this, once these wells start to decrease significantly in production, work-over rigs can go back in, resulting in better production.
The amount of production is only a small part of the entire story, however, when it comes to the business end of the story. Over time, the pipeline infrastructure will improve, and it is probable that, all things being equal, the delta between the price for Bakken oil and the price for Texas crude will narrow, making these wells even better wells financially even if production drops a bit.
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