Friday, January 31, 2025

One New Permit -- Equity Markets Fall -- January 31, 2025

Locator: 48452B.

Link here. Wall Street Journal. Obama. FAA. DEI.

US equity markets fell after confirmation that Trump will impose tariffs tomorrow, Saturday, February 1, 2025, on Canada and Mexico, raise tariffs on China by an additional 10%.  

That was made very clear during the White House press conference earlier today but there seems to be some legal room / some bureaucratic "legalese" that suggests "negotiations" continued later today into exactly what will take place tomorrow.  Behind the scenes, each side is negotiating what they expect the other side to do.

There are indications the executive order will be signed tomorrow, February 1, 2025, but the tariffs won't go into effect until March 1, 2025, giving "everyone" a chance to negotiate.

Get out the popcorn: link here. NYT. The purge has already begun, according to NBC Nightly News. "

All six senior FBI agents" have been fired (or resigned prior to being fired). Heads of several regional FBI offices have also been let go. Can you imagine, on the short list to be the next director of the FBI after twenty years working for the FBI, and now finding yourself looking for a job in the civilian world. I assume full retirement is 30 years; can you imagine being let go at 26 years?

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $72.5.

Active rigs: 36.

One new permits, #41572:

  • 40572, conf, Empire North Dakota, Utah Raptor 1 1H, Starbuck, lot 2 section 1-160-79, Bottineau oil field, to be sited 430 FNL and 1350 FEL.

CVX -- Knocking It Out Of The Park -- January 31, 2025

Locator: 48449BIGOIL.

For me, the big story: CVX.

But there's also XOM: beat estimates. XOM just raised its dividend also. Link here:

Fourth quarter profit was $7.39 billion. Profit per share was $1.67, beating analyst estimates of $1.56, according to LSEG data.

The No. 1 U.S. oil producer reported total earnings of $33.46 billion for full-year 2024, down from $38.57 billion the year earlier.

The company became the largest oil producer in the Permian basin in 2024, the biggest U.S. oilfield, after closing its acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources in May.

Exxon’s low production costs in the basin and its lucrative and prolific projects in Guyana have bolstered the company’s profits despite lower oil prices and a decline in profits for making fuel.

****************************************
CVX

Before we had Amazon, we had Nvidia. Before we had Nvidia, we had AAPL. Before we had AAPL, we had CVX. Everything else was chaff.

Investors don't look back ... they look forward.

Holy mackerel: look at this dividend. Link here.


Announces hike to $1.71. Previously:

Apple: Well Said -- The Bears Miss Again -- January 31, 2025

Locator: 48448AAPL.

Link here. The bears miss again.

AAPL.

Quarterly earnings. 

Link here.

Conference Call Summary

Records:

  • We had an all-time record quarter for revenue and earnings. 
  • We also had records in the majority of the countries we are in. 
  • Services also reached a record and a record installed base. 

iPhone:

  • You know what didn’t hit a record? iPhone.
  • However, we did hit records in some countries and markets.  
  • We are also finally seeing people upgrade their phones, and we had a record number of upgrades. 
  • Where we have introduced AI, we are seeing stronger upgrades of our iPhones, and the iPhone 16 is outperforming the iPhone 15 so far. 

Mac:

  • The Mac also didn’t hit a record, but it grew 16% year-over-year. It is, after all, the best AI PC out there.

iPad:

  • Siri says to tell you that people still like our iPad, too, and we had growth, but there is no record. 

Services:

  • It was our Services, though, that drove our growth. 
  •  Services were also more profitable, and we saw margin growth. 

Vision Pro:

  • We are seeing some sales of Vision Pro to Enterprise. 

AI:

  • We introduced AI to our devices, which does a lot of things you probably haven’t even tried yet, and these features are going to other countries soon. 
  • Plus, we have more AI things coming. 
  • DeepSeek doesn’t change anything for us. We’ve already kept our AI in-house with our own silicon, and we’ve always assumed that the cost of inferencing would come down, which is why we’ve been disciplined with our capex. 
  • Yet, we really don’t expect a lot of growth in iPhone this quarter, and it will be our third quarter when we roll out AI to other countries. As the AI base grows, the usage will grow, and once you start using the features, you can’t go back, so over time, we expect AI to continue to drive upgrades. We also see a lot of opportunities in emerging markets, particularly India. Our margins will improve, and we are in a favorable commodity environment.

Movie Night -- January 30, 2025

Locator: 48447ARCHIVES.

American Graffiti, Making Of: link here. Titans: Hitchcock, Lynch, Spielberg, Lucas.

Pure insanity, link here:

The UK has a legally-binding target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. More urgently, the UK needs to slash its emissions by 81%, compared with 1990 levels, in the next 10 years to meet new climate targets submitted to the United Nations. Air travel currently contributes about 7% of UK emissions.

Top ten movies:  tonight I will be watching two movies, maybe three. Starting with American Graffiti, and then Casablanca. I don't think I have the energy to watch three. If I do, the third will be Citizen Kane

Here today, gone tomorrow: what do the recent empty-hydrant fires and the runway 33 crash have in common? 

Those "stories" are horrific, unprecedented, totally preventable, and then 72 hours later, they are forgotten by the press and the politicians and the news media. Something new, something bigger, something worse comes along.
Already, in less than twelve hours we've gone to ATC DEI-hires. And, again, Trump is correct. FAFO. 
What might be worse a week from now? RFK, Jr, as head of HHS.
A week ago Friday, the mayor of Los Angeles promised the president that folks in Los Angeles who lost their homes would be back to work, putting things back together in the Pacific Palisades. Has any reporter gone back to see that promise is coming along? Time for another "town hall meeting" in Los Angeles.

Top ten lists: wow, I haven't used that tag ("Top Ten Lists") in a long time. From August 30, 2019, the top 10 CLR-operated wells in the Bakken. Not really, but they were good wells at the time. Since then, many better:

Later, 4:01 p.m. CT: looking at the top 10 CLR-operated wells listed below -- the following updates (note: all are still "flowing,"  no pumps):

  • 31520, SI/NC--> F/A; CLR, Steele Federal 5-24H1, no production data; SI/NC noted SI/NC; t1/20; cum 332K 11/24;
  • 31521, SI/NC--> F/A; Steele Federal 6-24H, no production data; SI/NC noted SI/NC; t1/20; cum 371K 11/24;
  • 31522, SI/NC--> F/A; CLR, Steele Federal 8-24H1, no production data; SI/NC noted SI/NC; t1/22; cum 252K 11/24;
  • 31523, SI/NC--> F/A; CLR, Steele Federal 9-24H, no production data; SI/NC noted SI/NC; t1/20; cum 374K 11/24;

Biggest surprise today (for me, probably no one else): BKR raises its dividend by two cents. 

FBI: overnight Trump offers top staff opportunity to resign before being fired. Acting director doing just fine. No need to worry about whether Trump's nominee gets confirmed.

Doug Burgum: easily confirmed as Secretary of the Department of the Interior. What a huge breath of fresh air. I'm surprised that -- as much as the Dems hate Trump -- any of the US Senate democrats vote to confirm a Trump appointee. I'm surprised Republicans like the senior senator from Alaska and the moderate Republican from Vermont and MM from Kentucky vote for any Trump appointee.

Common thread among Trump's administration, cabinet? Risk-takers. Highly successful. Self-made. There are exceptions.

Weekends: we now have another reason to look forward to the weekends. On weekends, the US Congress "shuts down" as well as mainstream legacy media, but Trump has 48 hours of productive work. 

ATC: I wonder when the nation gets to meet the ATC controllers on duty that night? I'll bet the Washington, DC, ATC control towers are well staffed for the foreseeable future. 

RACE: link here.

Talk Of The Town: Trump's Tariffs -- January 31, 2025

Locator: 48446B.

Tariffs: it is being reported that President Trump will place tariffs on Mexico and Canada effective tomorrow, Saturday, February 1, 2025. 

Re-posting.

Norway. Link here. Think about it.  Political crisis in Norway due to high electricity prices. One word: EVs. And folks in the US are complaining about the price of eggs. LOL.

CVX? Wow! Did they just increase their dividend. Just after analysts E&Ps don't have the cash to pay current dividends. LOL. Link here.

Only thing I have to say today, link here. What a doofus:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $72.66.

New wells:

  • Sunday, February 2, 2025: 3 for the month, 49 for the quarter, 49 for the year,
    • 40455, conf, Hess, GO-Beck Living Tr-156-98-2017H-5,
    • 39316, conf, CLR, Harms East Federal 1-33H,
  • Saturday, February 1, 2025: 1 for the month, 47 for the quarter, 47 for the year,
    • 39315, conf, CLR, Quale Federal 3-1H2,
  • Friday, January 31, 2025: 46 for the month, 46 for the quarter, 46 for the year,
    • None.

RBN Energy: Trump's tariffs would hurt Canadian oil producers more than US refiners. Archived.

Tariffs have served as a cornerstone of President Trump’s economic vision. In the campaign, he said he could impose tariffs as high as 25% on all imported goods from Canada — including crude oil — and he could deliver on that promise at any time. This has raised concerns, especially for Canadian producers and U.S. refiners, who depend on the efficient and economical movement of barrels between the trading partners. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how much Canadian crude oil flows to the U.S., how those imports could be affected by tariffs, and how Canadian producers and U.S. refiners would share the financial impact. 

President Trump’s initial wave of executive orders (EOs) included some directly aimed at U.S. energy and trade policy (see Brand New Day). One of his first EOs directed federal agencies to investigate trade practices, including the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and was signed by Trump in 2020. The president had indicated during the campaign that he could institute a tariff of up to 25% on all imported goods from Canada and Mexico on Day 1 of his administration in response to what he has called the failure of both countries to curb the flow of people and drugs across the border. The tariffs haven’t happened yet, but White House buzz this week suggested they could go into effect as soon as Saturday, February 1, 2025.

RBN Energy: ISO-NE -- outflows of gas from northeast plunged during MLK snowstorm. Link here. Rates surged.

The Northeastern United States was pummeled by frigid weather for the four days starting on Martin Luther King Day (January 20) and ending on January 24. During this period, total Northeast gas demand averaged 37.7 Bcf/d, which is 4.6 Bcf/d higher than the month-to-date average. This is the highest level ever seen for Northeast demand. With such extremely high demand within the region, pipeline outflows fell to much lower than usual levels, as seen in the chart below. During the four days of the snowstorm ouflows from the Northeast averaged 8.1 Bcf/d.

Source: RBN NATGAS Appalachia, Wood Mackenzie

Significant reductions in regional outflow were seen on Transcontinental Pipeline (Transco) and on Texas Eastern Transmission Pipeline (TETCO). Our NATGAS Appalachia report definition of the Northeast includes Virginia, so Northeast outflows on Transco are the flows from Virginia to North Carolina south of Station 165. As Mountain Valley Pipeline flowed near capacity during the winter cold snap, it supplied all of Transco’s flows to the Southeast during the period.

Thursday, January 30, 2025

Six New Permits; 24 Permits Approved For Confidential Status; Three Permits Renewed; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- January 30, 2025

Norway. Link here. Think about it.  Political crisis in Norway due to high electricity prices. One word: EVs. And folks in the US are complaining about the price of eggs. LOL.

CVX? Wow! Did they just increase their dividend. Just after analysts E&Ps don't have the cash to pay current dividends. LOL. Link here.

Only thing I have to say today, link here. What a doofus:

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Back to the Bakken

Locator: 48445B.

WTI: $73.16.

Active rigs: 37.

Six new permits, #41566 - #41571, inclusive:

  • Operators: Oasis (4); Empire North Dakota; Phoenix Operating
  • Fields: Indian Hill (McKenzie); Starbuck-Madison Unit (Bottineau); Noonan (Divide); and, Indian Hill (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Phoenix Operating has a permit for a Gopher well, NWSW 33-162-93, 
      • to be sited 2299 FSL and 450 FWL; 1920-acre spacing, section 33 / 34 / 35-162-95;
    • Empire North Dakota has a permit for a Starbuck well, SENW 32-161-78, 
      • to be sited 2475 FNL and 1810 FWL; spacing unit: Starbuck-Madisin. unit;
    • Oasis has permits for four Dolls Daisy / Dolls Daisy Federal wells, lot 3, section 31-153-101; 
      • to be sited 1475 / 1574 FSL and 625 FWL

Twenty-four permits / wells approved for "confidential" status:

  • Oasis: 9
  • Enerplus: 15

Three permits renewed:

  • Murex: Barrett Leigh, Michael Douglass, and Patricia Ann (#24797, #24889, #24890).

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 36830, 2,232, XTO, Muller 31-12DXA, Williams County;
  • 36831, 2,693, XTO, HBU Muller 31X-12H, Williams County.

MSFT: Gross Margins Of 45%; Revenue Growth, +12% Y/Y-- January 30, 2025

Locator: 48444MSFT.

Link here.

Global Climate Change Economy Teeters -- January 30, 2025

Locator: 48443GREEN.

Global climate change economy teeters: Bloomberg link here.  

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For The Archives

Link here.

I flew with the 525 TFS, Bitburg Air Base, Germany, from 1984 - 1986, and again, from 1989 - 1993, also Bitburg AB, Germany. My primary a/c was the F-15. 

 In the photo below, the F-15 is the second a/c from the POV of the aircrew member pictured.


The 525 TFS mascot: an English bulldog, or "the bulldog."

Link here.

RMDs -- New Rules Take Effect -- January 30, 2025

Locator: 48442RMDS.

This post is for my edification and to share with my extended family. It is not meant for others and should not be read by others. 

Disclaimer: I often make typographical and content errors. I often misread and misunderstand news stories. News stories may be subject to error and may be confusing for some readers, including me. Do not make any financial decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Link here

I don't think there is anything new here.

I don't think the rules are confusing, necessarily, it's just "hard" so articulate them in language that can be "easily" understood. 

Three questions (and their answers) might be confusing to some:

  • what if I inherited an IRA before 2020: the new rules don't apply;
  • what if I inherited a traditional IRA after 2019 from someone who had not yet started taking RMDs: annual withdrawals not required, but 10-year rule applies;
  • what if I inherited a traditional IRA after 2019 from someone who had begun taking RMDs: annual RMDs are required using same rules as the original owner of the IRA, and the 10-year rule applies.

To help understand this, it makes sense to think about why Congress mandated these changes:

  • with regard to a traditional IRA, Congress wanted these retirement accounts to be used as retirement accounts and not as never-ending vehicles for wealth accumulation.

These two paragraphs were NOT a bit confusing but I would be careful with two of the paragraphs --

As I understand it:

  • for those who inherited a traditional IRA after 2019 from someone who had reached the age of requirement for taking RMDs -- 
    • whether that individual had started taking RMDs or not -- beneficiaries are required to take annual RMDs per rules and are subject to the 10-year rule -- and again, that's how I interpret it and could be very wrong and/or could be misunderstood.
  • RMDs for these folks is based on the age of the original owner of the traditional IRA

This is huge and I don't think folks are necessarily aware: inherited Roth IRAs are subject to the 10-year rule but not the annual RMD rule, years 1 - 9.

Regulations -- January 30, 2025

Locator: 48441EVS.

Background: here in Grapevine, TX, one of the larger shopping malls is "Grapevine Mills." I assume the number of parking spaces number in the 1,000's? So now this, the "top story" from our daily/local "business" newspaper:

I never imagined that on private property, as such, parking spaces were "regulated" by the city.  With the interest in EVs for the past dozen years and with the huge penetration of Teslas in the local area, it's a "top story" when a huge mall plans to add three -- count 'em -- three new rapid-charge stations. Three.

I don't know how long the regulatory process for this project has been in the works, but "the action comes more than a year after the city established new regulations around electric vehicle chargers."

Finally, "a site plan filed with the city shows plans to convert 12 parking spaces into six charging stations. No other site plan changes are proposed for the project." 

Thousands of parking spaces; three new EV charging stations now with three more to go. And that's it after all these years of talk about EVs. Maybe I'm missing something, but this simply seems mind-boggling. 

It would be interesting to know the pros and cons raised by the Grapevine city council.

There are currently ten -- count 'em -- ten EV charging stations operating in Grapevine. As of January 21, 2025, nearly 1,000 EVs are registered in Grapevine. 

Somber Morning -- January 30, 2025

Locator: 48440B.

WMB: increases dividend, from 47.5 cents to 50 cents / share.

VLO: beats. Previously announced: ups dividend from $1.07 to $1.13. 

Secretary, US DOT: Sean Duffy, wiki:

Silence is deafening: Reagan crash: what hasn't been released by US Army yet.

US skating team: members on downed a/c. Sixty four souls on board; 28 bodies recovered; no survivors reported -- official as of early morning, Thursday, January 30, 2025, about twelve hours after incident.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $72.45

New wells:

  • Friday, January 31, 2025: 46 for the month, 46 for the quarter, 46 for the year,
    • None.
  • Thursday, January 30, 2025: 46 for the month, 46 for the quarter, 46 for the year,
    • 40488, conf, Grayson Mill, Wahus 12-1F XE 1H,

RBN Energy: bidders to soon get a second shot at CITGO's US refineries, other assets.

The bitter, eight-year legal battle over the fate of CITGO Petroleum’s three U.S. refineries, related pipelines and terminal assets appeared to be at an end last fall, when a federal court gave the green light to Elliott Investment Management’s Amber Energy to purchase the assets for $7.3 billion. But instead of putting an end to the drama, the court restarted the bidding from scratch on December 18. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss what the court’s ruling means for CITGO and its refineries, which have a combined capacity of more than 800 Mb/d.

Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Evensong And Literature -- January 29, 2025

Locator: 48439ARCHIVES.

In the last couple of days, Ripon Cathedral has been featured on the blog. Tonight, I'm watching / listening to (on YouTube) Evensong at Canterbury Cathedral, something I find very enjoyable, relaxing, soothing.


When in Yorkshire, northern England, for weeks and sometimes months on end, I found it incredibly rewarding to attend evensong in one of the local / regional cathedrals. As mentioned earlier, Ripon Cathedral was 16 miles / 24 minutes away, and that's where I most often attended Evensong. When I went to Evensong at Ripon Cathedral I was struck by the fact that if there were 75 folks in attendance, 45 were church participants, most members of the choir(s). Of the remaining thirty, twenty-five were generally older, grey-haired, and of a different generation than my generation. Of the remaining five, there were two of us from an American military unit stationed overseas. And that was it. The population of Ripon is 16,000 and probably serves an area or region with a population of 30,000 and yet a most incredible setting and a most incredible service brought in many seventy-five folks.

The same is true of Canterbury Cathedral Evensong. It appears not more than seventy people are in attendance, and fifty are church members participating in the proceedings. Absolutely free, no standing in line, welcomed by all, and a wonderful beef Wellington before heading home. The service lasts approximately 35 minutes and it's mostly the choir.

*****************************
The Literature Page

I don't think I've ever read a word of Charles Dickens. I had been told he was impossible to read or impossible to enjoy or impossible this or impossible that.

And I was told his books and his writing went on forever and forever.

So tonight I find myself reading Charles Dickens for the first time ever. It's a long story why I started. Suffice it to say, I am (reading it).

So, I'm reading Bleak House.

It was released by Charles Dicken, 1852 - 1853, in installments, one or two installments once a month over nineteen months or maybe more often than once a month, but from beginning to end, twenty installments were released over nineteenth months. 

I read the first chapter earlier this afternoon. It took about twenty minutes and I thoroughly enjoyed it. There are sixty-seven (67) chapters. 817 pages. To put that in perspective, The World According to Garp, which I also started reading this past week, is 503 pages.

I found the first chapter incredible. Wow, it was nothing like I expected. I truly enjoyed it. And that's the problem with American education. Students are expected to read it during a semester of literature, along with a ton of other reading. It's impossible. They're not reading it. They scanning in. They're reading it enough to meet the minimum requirements set by the professor or the teacher. 

I may or may not finish the book. But I will read it the same way the folks read it in 1852 - 1852 -- one or two installments each month, or perhaps slightly more often.

817 pages / 19 months = 43. So about 40 - 50 pages at least once a month.

Victor Davis Hanson: President Donald J. Trump And The Fate Of The United States -- January 29, 2025

Locator: 48438ARCHIVES.

Probably worth a listen. 

Link here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-1RZML5FnE&t=1731s

How important is where your degree comes from? Fast forward to 35 minutes at the link above. 

He will also tell you why food is getting more expensive. No, it's not due to government deficit spending. LOL.

****************************
Beautiful, Beautiful Evening

The weather has been wonderful today. Overcast, a bit of mist, with a forecast of heavy rain overnight. But very, very temperate, almost warm all day. 

By tomorrow, it will stop raining; by Friday, it will be dry; and, over the next seven days, starting Friday, it's going to be very, very warm -- almost "hot" for this time of year, and sunny, sunny, sunny. It's going to be awesome. Our adult daughter will be in a paddle board race somewhere in north Texas.

Now, in the background, while I'm typing this, a bit of rain and a lot of thunder. Sounds wonderful. We're forecast to get two to four inches of rain. 

*************************
Eggs

Yesterday at our local grocer's.



It is forecast that these eggs will be priced at $8.40 a year from now. So, we'll see.

*****************************
The Deluge

I just came back from taking the garbage out to the compactor. Holy mackerel.

I believe the ratio is 10:1. Ten inches of snow equates to one inch of rain.

We are predicted to get two to four inches of rain overnight.

10:1.

That makes twenty to forty inches of snow overnight. 

I think folks understand twenty to forty inches of snow overnight.

Well, let me tell you, I've never seen so much in my life coming down as I'm seeing tonight. Generally, we get a huge cloudburst that lasts twenty minutes. Tonight it looks like we're going to get a steady, long-lasting drenching. It could be generational. LOL. 


Bellwether Of American Chip Industry -- Update -- How's It Going? January 29, 2025

Locator: 48437TECH.

My understanding that by now -- from six months ago -- INTC would be turning a "profit" for investors. 

Ticker today:

Price Of Beef -- January 28, 2025

Locator: 48436BEEF.

A reader noted the high price of beef.

Two graphics:


The Anti-Social Century -- January 29, 2025

Locator: 48435ARCHIVES.

Updates

January 31, 2025: American Graffiti, Making Of: link here. To what extent did demonizing the ICE lead to the following -- the anti-social century. An iPhone: a couple of hundreds of dollars. A muscle car: tens of thousands of dollars and an understanding of how things work.

Original Post 

Derek Thompson published an intriguing graphic in his essay one week ago in The Atlantic. Link here.

It was a very, very long essay, but, unless I missed it, Derek failed to "explain," or even discuss the sudden drop-off that began in 2010. I discussed the graph with a few folks, none of whom were interested. LOL. But it was driving me nuts. In general, Derek associated the "anti-social century" with technology, and it seemed, he put most emphasis on the iPhone. 

Perhaps I will post a narrative later, but I assume most folks can connect the dots.

Note:

  • Derek's thesis: technology is responsible for "less-social teens." That's the pessimist's view.
  • my thesis: an optimist's view. To be discussed in a different blot, maybe next week.

First, the graphic again, without annotation. These are twelfth graders, seniors, last year of high school. Surveys taken annually since 1975 -- "going out with friends two or three times per week":

Now, with annotations:

Napster: revolutionary!

Netflix, reaching its stride.

iPhone 4 -- FACETIME!

Something missing:

Finally, the writer did not discuss one fact. I may have missed it so I'm going back to the article but if he missed "this," it speaks volumes about the writer's ability to analyze this issue. Maybe next week, if not sooner.

********************************
Original Post

Posted one week ago:

Locator: 44744TECH.

There's an interesting 12-page essay in the February, 2025, issue of The Atlantic.

The title: "The Anti-Social Century,"

Link here

The writer makes a lot of observations, raises a lot of issues and references, among others, Jean M Twenge, the author of the best-seller Generations, c. 2017. 

One of several graphs that piqued my interest. This is a survey of high school seniors (twelfth graders):

Unfortunately, the author notes the graph but does not do any satisfactory analysis, at least as far as I'm concerned.

I plan on coming back to this one but in the meantime spend some time on the graph.

The author's (and Ms Twenge's) thesis is that much of this is due to technology, e.g., the iPhone.

The trend is pretty much flat-lined for forty years (1970 - 2010) and then declines significantly over the next decade. It's impossible to miss this "hockey-stick" phenomenon. 

With regard to technology, name the top three technology breakthroughs that could explain this graph.

I'll provide the correct (LOL) answers later this evening if I don't run out of time.

WTI Drops; Trending Toward $70 -- Trump Hoping He Can Get Price Of Oil Down To Bring Down Inflation -- January 29, 2025

Locator: 48434B.

Sentenced:

*************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $72.62 -- big drop; down $1.15; down 1.56%. I haven't been watching the news: have "they" been talking about a recession?

Active rigs: 36.

Five new permits, #41561 - #41465, inclusive:

  • Operators: Silver Hill Energy Operating, LLC (4); Empire North Dakota, LLC.
  • Fields: East Tioga (Mountrail); Starbuck (Botttineua)
  • Comments:
    • Empire has a permit for a Goldeye well, NESW 32-161-78, 
      • to be sited 2110 FSL and 2400 FWL;
    • Silver Hill has permits for four Rice E wells, NENW 25-158-94, 
      • to be sited 323/428 FNL and 2262 FWL.

Six XTO permits reinstated: #37310 - 37313, inclusive, and #37354 - #37355, inclusive;

  • Field: North Fork (McKenzie)
  • Location: NWSW 24-149-98; SWSW 24-149-98; SESW 35-151-98.

Trump 2.0 -- Day 9 -- January 29, 2025

Locator: 48433TRUMP.

January 29, 2025, day 9:

  • will sign the Lincoln Riley law!
  • EO: to direct DOD to prepare a 30,000-bed facility at Guantanamo Bay to take the most serious offenders
    • this will double the number of beds / capacity at Guantanamo Bay
    • this has been in the works for quite some time; seldom reported (if ever reported) by the legacy mainstream press
    • Trump - JD Vance - Tom Homan - Kristi Noem - Pete Hegseth - 
    • Tom Homan says pace of deportations not fast enough; "must do more"
    • Trump says border crossings have dropped to zero

Anyone not paying attention is not paying attention.

A remarkable morning. Incredibly moving. I am personally unable to wrap my head around this whole tragedy. 

It is just remarkable how the roosters are coming home to roost after four incredibly negligent years. 

I don't think I've seen a more somber / sad / moving law signing.

And graciously took the first question from a most tone-deaf journalist. 

***********************
FOMC

Clearly stated:

  • inflation has risen slightly
  • it's a low-hiring economy but labor market is "fairly" stable

Investors (so far) take the "rate pause" in stride.

 *********************
Sentenced

Quick Note -- Airlines And Price Gouging -- January 29, 2025

Locator: 48432ARCHIVES.

Wow, I'm in a great mood this morning.

We'll have a bit of rain over the next 24 hours but then more than a week of sunny weather and a high of 72°F on the weekend. The days are getting noticeably longer and it's just a matter of time before the swimming pools open up again. 

The dip in the stock market -- I love how "they" call it a "dip" -- was another opportunity for young investors. I remain fully invested at all times. I have a rolling 30-year horizon. I don't plan to leave my heirs any money: they will inherit our entire estate of US equities and the dividends that come with those equities. I've already started the process.

I will be off the net for awhile. I walk Sophia to the bus every morning and I'll be leaving in a few minutes. I've been up for a couple of hours updating production data for Bakken wells. A lot of old sites were updated. I've referenced a few of the sites that I updated, but most of the updates were done without bringing the posts forward.

It's getting more and more impossible to keep up with the news. More on that later, perhaps.

I'm looking forward to a cross-country trip or two or three this calendar year. Whether it all plays out or not, hard to say. I'm too comfortable in my apartment. LOL. 

************************
Of Interest

From Forbes this morning: 

First up, AI:

Venture firm General Catalyst is leading a $50 million funding round into Onebrief, a startup that makes collaboration software to help Pentagon leaders speed up military planning 

Chris Miller, a former acting Secretary of Defense and co-author of Project 2025, also joined the startup’s board, telling Forbes his role provides a link to the Trump Administration ahead of what Silicon Valley hopes will be a bumper year for startups working with the Pentagon.

Second: in most instances this would be called "price gouging." But I guess "price gouging" only refers to items bought by poor folks. Is it appropriate to use the phrase "poor folks" any more? I've lost the bubble on such things. Anyway, back to "price gouging":

Major U.S. airlines have boosted flight capacity from Kansas City and Philadelphia to New Orleans ahead of the Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl, and experts recommend booking flights now to avoid the steepest prices. Nonstop tickets to New Orleans from domestic airports are already averaging $979 per round-trip ticket, significantly higher than the average domestic airfare of $294 for a round trip, according to the travel platform Hopper.

**************************
Travel

Wow, wow, wow!

The [London] Telegraph ranks the 1,250 prettiest and ugliest cities in "Britain." Link here.

We lived in England for many years:

  • first, the family lived three years in southeast England, in Suffolk County, near Cambridge, northeast of London; and,
  • then over a period of four years I spent many months in Yorkshire, near the Scotland border.

It was awesome. Four of the prettiest cities noted by The Telegraph were in the areas that we lived. Most notably, Ripon was one of the four cities and where I spent a lot of time, at the Ripon Cathedral for evensong. 

In the immediate area of Ripon was another city that made the cut for being most beautiful: Ilkley, West Yorkshire. Ilkley was a 23-minute drive from where I stayed / worked while in Yorkshire. I have no idea how many times I would have driven through that village. Bolton Bridge, nearby, was a favorite destination. As for hiking, I usually hiked north and west of Menwith Hill which means I probably did not hike through Ilkley.

When on temporary duty, up to four months at a time, I stayed at the Wellington Inn in Darley, just a fifteen-minute walk from the base. Maybe 30 minutes. I forget. I often got picked up by someone driving that direction so seldom had to walk. Occasionally the Air Force would allow me to rent a car while at RAF Mildenhall. 

I would usually hike all day Saturday and all day Sunday. I would leave as early as 7:00 a.m. and not return until 7:00 p.m. In general, all my day-long hikes were solitary, but on many outings by car and short walks I generally had one or two female companions from the air base who also shared the joy of ... what do they call it in Germany -- volksmarching.  Whereas the latter tends to be larger groups and very well organized, the walks I did in England were anything but. 


A Step Down Memory Lane -- The Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum -- Reposting -- January 29, 2025

Locator: 48431MUSEUM.

Note: decades ago, the first love-of-my-life -- we were both in our early20's, I suppose -- maybe in our mid-20s -- she was a Harvard medical school student doing rotations at Mass General. I was going down a a similar road but out in Southern California. Linda lived in a brownstone apartment on Beacon Street, in the 400-block. It was a gorgeous location and a gorgeous apartment. How she could afford it, I do not know but she had the highest tastes so it did not surprise me. 

Years later I learned that Isabella Steward Gardner and her husband lived out their entire lives on that same street in Back Bay, Beacon Street in the 100-block. If she walked, it would have been a 16-minute walk for Linda from her apartment to Ms Gardner's apartment. I doubt either of us knew that at the time. 

Our lives were way too busy with other things. 

Beacon Street:

Some say the American dream is owning a big house.

Not me. My American dream would have been ....

********************************

The note below was posted back in 2012. I happened to be reading about the Isabella Stewart Gardner museum again the other day and then happened across this post from thirteen (wow, thirteen!) years ago. It's worth posting again for the grandchildren and the archives.

******************* 

A note to the granddaughters

[After posting the note below, I got a few comments from others including Arne C. who directed me to his blog: http://miscbaseball.wordpress.com/2010/06/11/a-very-brief-historical-tour-of-fenway-park/]

Now I know why you love this art museum, Boston's Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum.

You have visited at least once, but that was before the new "wing." I visited it for the first time yesterday, and I was simply overwhelmed. I had never seen anything like it before, and my first impression was this is the best art museum I had ever seen.

Now, 24 hours later, reflecting on it, maybe it's a bit much to say this is the best art museum in the world, but it may be the best art museum experience in the world.  It certainly is a museum no one should miss. If you visit Boston and have time for only one museum, I think this would be it. And that's a tough call. Competing for your time: the Museum of Fine Arts in Boston; the JFK Library and Museum south of Boston; and, the Peabody Essex Museum, north of Boston in Salem/Essex. But whereas the MFA is a "typical" big city fine arts museum, the ISG is unique. The ISG Italian palace is part of the experience; for some (including me) the palace may be THE experience.

I was overwhelmed. Even though the new wing has been open now for several weeks, the line to purchase tickets still exceeded my expectations.  We walked through a long glass corridor to get to the palace. Immediately upon entering, one realizes one is in a different kind of museum. The three-story structure is built around a classic Italian courtyard. I was immediately reminded of the Roman baths in Bath, England. Absolutely spectacular. I explored three or four rooms/corridors/hallways in the immediate area after emerging from the glass corridor -- the rooms around the courtyard on the ground floor, and I realized I was overwhelmed. It was a unique experience. I did not have the same experience in the Louvre. I assume I had some idea of what to expect when visiting the Louvre for the first time, but I had no idea what to expect when visiting the ISG for the first time.

I went back to the new wing to collect my thoughts. In the opposite quadrant from the restaurant, is the "living room." Isabella Gardner loved books; in fact, I believe she started collecting books before she started collecting art, and throughout the museum -- I hate to call it a museum -- it's a palace -- are shelves of her books. I could spend hours in the "living room." With comfortable sofas and individual chairs, surrounded by books to be read by visitors, it is a most relaxing room. It is "outside" the palace proper and thus no admission charge. There were several books I spent some time with, but my two favorites: the 2012 anniversary edition celebrating the Boston Red Sox and Fenway Park; and the collected letters of Isabella Gardner and her co-conspirator in art collecting, Bernard Berenson. 

This is my snapshot of the ISG Museum story. Isabella loved life. She married a New York City man who created his own wealth through smart investments; they moved to Boston where they settled in the newly filled in Back Bay. She was not well educated but she more than made up for that by self-education for the rest of her life. She was devastated by the death of her 2-year old son. To get her out of her depression, her husband took her to Europe. That began her love for travel, Europe, particularly Italy, and an eye for collecting. She had taken some "adult courses" under a history professor at Harvard which was probably the life-altering event in her life with regard to art and history.

Through serendipity, she met a young (incredibly handsome) Harvard undergraduate Bernard Berenson who wanted to be the intermediary identifying, buying, and collecting art for a rich patron. He began scouring the continent for art work for Ms Gardner who had just inherited $1.6 million from her father upon his death.

She and Berenson collected art at the turn of the century and became a very, very close and successful team. The stories coming out of the museum suggest they had had a "come-to-Jesus" moment when she discovered he was being paid a handsome commission by European dealers from whom he bought art, as well as a five percent commission from Ms Gardner. Obviously it was to his advantage for the dealer to increase his prices. Berenson must have been extremely persuasive (and very, very good looking); Ms Gardner stuck with him. The relationship appears to have grown stronger and closer.

Unexpectedly her husband died about this time; I believe she was in her late 40's or 50's. (Let's see: she was born in 1840; the palace opened in 1903 -- so late 50's I guess.) Knowing she had little time left in her life, she began immediately designing and building an Italian palace to house her art collection. She chose an empty lot near where Fenway Park came to be. Fenway Court, as she called her palace, opened in 1903; Fenway Park in 1912. The ISG Museum is now just a few blocks (within walking distance of the Boston Museum of Fine Arts) on the Green Line.

For more, visit the ISG Museum website.

Incidentally, there's a little nook, a little corner on the first floor with two chairs, a table with a dozen books, and a lamp. I don't know if Ms Gardner placed that ensemble there herself but it has "her" feeling. I don't think many visitors realize it provides an opportunity for folks like me, who become overwhelmed, to simply sit and reflect on this most personal of personal museums, as some have described this palace.

Oh, and by the way, the lunch menu was very unique and the food excellent, including affordable wines. I had a Samuel Adams -- you know, I was just reminded that Paul Revere was captured before he completed his midnight ride. Walt Whitman admitted he used artistic license to write his poem. But, Paul Revere was able to warn his close friends Sam Adams and John Hancock before he was captured. But I digress.

Huge Jump In Production -- CLR Whitman Well In Oakdale Oil Field -- January 29, 2025

Locator: 48430WHITMAN.

The Oakdale oil field wells have been updated. They are tracked here

Perhaps the largest number of spectacular wells in one oil field in all of the Bakken. These are simply incredible wells. Most at 500K or trending toward 500K. Many at 900K bbls crude oil cumulative or trending toward that number. Several over 1 million bbls crude oil cumulative.

I believe I just posted some updated data regarding the CLR Whitman wells in the Oakdale oil fied.

I can't remember if I posted this jump in production for this well:

  • 17061, IA/664, CLR, Whitman 11-34H, Oakdale, Bakken; tested 6/08; 461K 12/18; it's off line again.
BAKKEN10-20223114261143141238018998187572
BAKKEN9-2022303619436217258343996639770196
BAKKEN8-20221831218310871770825267236651602
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-20220000000
BAKKEN3-20220000000
BAKKEN2-20220000000
BAKKEN1-20220000000
BAKKEN12-20210000000
BAKKEN11-20210000000
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-20211423655373872750
BAKKEN8-2021316565505212418220
BAKKEN7-2021265847562110346960
BAKKEN6-2021307135795712478430

Updating Some Nice Grayson Mill Wells In Alger Oil Field - January 29, 2025

Locator: 48429ALGER.

From a blog posted April 27, 2012, an update, link here:  

Examples of other wells in the immediate area (these are huge wells):
  • 18654, 4,335, Grayson Mill/Statoil/BEXP, Sorenson 29-32 1-H, s2/10; t4/10; cum 458K 10/16; cum 565K 11/24;
  • 17355, 3,909, Grayson Mill/Statoil/BEXP, Cvancara 20-17 1-H, s10/10; t3/11; cum 303K 10/16; cum 428K 11/24;
  • 19513, 4,661, Grayson Mill/Statoil/BEXP, Sorenson 29-32-2-H, s10/10; t3/11; cum 394K 10/16; cum 533K 11/24;
  • 18628, 4,357, Grayson Mill/Statoil/BEXP, Jack Cvancara 19-18 1-H, s3/10; t5/10; cum427K 10/16; cum 569K 11/24;
  • 19057, 4,106, Grayson Mill/Statoil/BEXP, Domaskin 30-31 1-H, s7/10; t10/10; cum 416K 10/16; cum 501K 11/24;

Back in February, 2010, Irish Oil and Gas Company acquired 120 acres in the Alger Field for $7,300/acre which works out to $4.7 million/section. The 120 acres are in sections 11, 12 and 13, T155N-92W.

Back of the envelope:

  • eight wells on 1280-acre spacing (this drilling unit has eight wells)
  • eight wells x 500,000 bbls cumulative at $50 / bbl = $200,000,000
  • $200,000,000 / 1280 = $160,000 / acre

Disclaimer: I often make simply arithmetic errors. Sophia has not double-checked my figures on this.