Seven Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- August 28, 2023

Locator: 45491B.

Focus on fracking: pending.

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $79.88.

Tuesday, August 29, 2023: 52 for the month; 254 for the quarter, 499 for the year
None.

Monday, August 28, 2023: 52 for the month; 254 for the quarter, 499 for the year
38994, conf, Hess, TI-Stenbak-158-95-2526H-9,
37613, conf, BR, Pullman 3A MBH-ULW,
35466, conf, Oasis, MHA 6-27-26H-150-92,

Sunday, August 27, 2023: 49 for the month; 251 for the quarter, 496 for the year
38996, conf, Hess, TI-Stenbak-LN-158-95-2526H-1,
37934, conf, BR, Boxer 3A TFH,

Saturday, August 26, 2023: 47 for the month; 249 for the quarter, 494 for the year
37933, conf, BR, Parrish 4A MBH,
35473, conf, Oasis, MHA 8-29-30H-150-92,

RBN Energy: exploring two potential paths for natural gas markets.

In the last 12 months, U.S. natural gas prices have touched highs not seen since the start of the Shale Revolution as well as depths previously plumbed only briefly during downturns in 2012, 2016 and 2020. Where will prices go next? Well, if we knew that, we wouldn’t be writing blogs. As we’ve seen in the past couple of years, there’s just too much going on in global markets to think you can know where gas prices will be 10 years, five years or even one year from now. But that never stopped us from trying. As we’ve done many times before, we’ll take a scenario approach — a high case and a low case. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll explore these scenarios for domestic natural gas prices and what sort of ramifications each would entail for other markets. 

Just over one year ago, on August 22, 2022, the prompt Henry Hub price settled at $9.68/MMBtu — it was the zenith of a five-month run in which the benchmark regularly settled in the $7-$9/MMBtu range. Henry averaged just over $6.50 in 2022 (dark green horizontal line to left in Figure 1), significantly higher than any single day’s settlement since 2008, when shale drilling first started making domestic gas abundant and cheap. (The highwater mark between those two eras was February 19, 2014, when Henry settled at $6.15/MMBtu.) While gas sellers in the U.S. likely have fond memories of that time, gas buyers, especially those on the other side of the pond, were having a far different experience.