Russia, Saudi Updates; Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- April 12, 2023

Locator: 44367B. 

COP: link here.

• ConocoPhillips unveiled a 10-year plan Wednesday, April 12, 2023, that envisions more than $115B of free cash flow available for distributions and capital spending averaging ~$10B annually, resulting in a 4%-5% production compound annual growth rate at an average reinvestment rate of ~50%. 
• The plan foresees durable cash flow growth with projected cash from operations and FCF compounded annual growth rate of ~6% and 11%, respectively, and return on capital employed increasing at least one percentage point annually. 
• Conoco said it will seek a resource base of 20B boe at less than $40/bbl WTI, representing a resource life of more than 30 years at current production levels. 
• The company also pledged to speed up its greenhouse gas intensity reduction target through 2030 by 10% to a range of 50%-60% using a 2016 baseline. 
• ConocoPhillips (COP) is expected to provide shareholders with almost 5% in annualized dividends and share buybacks, generating strong shareholder returns

"E-Car" sales collapse. Op-ed link here.

Russia crude oil exports collapse: link here.

Russian cash: link here.

Saudi surplus shrinking: link here.

Saudi can't afford a price war: link here to Bloomberg: 

How OPEC+ punished the short sellers: link here.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 42.

WTI: $81.44.

Natural gas: $2.201.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

Thursday, April 13, 2023: 26 for the month; 26 for the quarter, 281 for the year
None.

Wednesday, April 12, 2023: 26 for the month; 26 for the quarter, 281 for the year
39184, conf, Ragnar Exploration, Galt 1-22H,
38875, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-8H,

RBN Energy: a revolution in UUS cruude ooil and petroleum product expoort markets. Link here. Archived. 

Crude oil exports are hitting record volumes. Geopolitical dislocations, regional capacity constraints, and transport cost aberrations are upending global trade flows. These developments have a direct impact on U.S. export grades, prices, and the utilization of pipelines and terminals. Petroleum product exports have an equally formidable set of challenges. U.S. surpluses of refined products are growing as domestic demand falls and biofuel penetration increases. The impact will translate directly into shifts in flows between PADDs, the repurposing of infrastructure, and more exports from the Gulf Coast. We’ll be exploring these and many more developments at our upcoming conference, xPortCon-Oil 2023, to be held in Houston on June 8, 2023. In this blatantly advertorial blog, we will introduce the major topics to be covered at the conference, who will be participating, and why we believe this will be the most important industry gathering for crude and products markets this year.