US Supreme Court Rulings -- July 9, 2020

Updates

Later, 3:22 p.m. CDT:

Later, 12:47 p.m. CDT: Durham will run out the clock. Says he doesn't want to look "political."

Original Post

I was asked about the market today.

Note: in a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors. Opinions and facts are interspersed and it will be hard to tell the difference between the two. I tried to keep the note as balanced as possible despite my highly opinionated opinions. 

My not-ready-for-prime-time reply:

The market was up and AAPL hit a new all-time new high shortly after opening but then dropped back after the US Supreme Court rulings re: Trump's tax returns.

Folks are only reading the headlines. The story is actually not that remarkable.

The little bit of the ruling that I actually read suggests that the US Supreme Court got it right.

[I'm not completely sure about that -- Article II, Supremacy Clause, US Constitution -- but at the end of the day, I think this is the "right" decision -- if Trump supporters question that, consider the fallout/impact if Hillary had been elected president and the US Supreme Court ruled otherwise. If Biden is elected president, Trump supporters may be happy that the court made this ruling: in effect, no one is above the law.]

Bottom line: tax returns won't be released during the election. Won't be released until well after 2020, if at all.

Both cases were referred back to the lower courts.

In the first case, much legal wrangling will continue. It will end up back in the US Supreme Court if the lower court rules in favor of the grand jury. The US Supreme Court is now adjourned for this year. They won't be back in formal session until next year. There is no urgency for the NY grand jury to act. The air is out of the balloon. 

In the second ruling, even though it was referred back to the lower courts, the US Chief Justice in his ruling telegraphed that as far as he is concerned, the issue is dead: the US House is not the place to conduct such proceedings, per the US constitution. If the US House wants to proceed, they can go other routes to impeach the president.

1. First ruling: NY grand jury investigating Trump's financial dealing wanted Trump's tax reports. The headline: US Supreme Court says grand jury can see Trump's tax reports.

In fact, the US Supreme Court only said that the president doesn't have "absolute immunity." But NY grand jury needs to provide adequate reason why tax reports are needed. So, the case goes back to the lower court to determine if grand jury provided adequate information. If adverse ruling, Trump would take it back to US Supreme Court.

The president "may raise further arguments as appropriate," in lower courts in an effort to keep [New York grand jury] from obtaining his documents, Roberts wrote.

2. Second ruling: US House committee wanted the tax documents if the NY grand jury got them. See #1 above. Roberts authored the ruling for this case (and the one above): in the second ruling, Roberts said that US Congress cannot see tax documents from NY grand jury even if the grand jury gets them.

So this becomes a political story again, nothing more, nothing less, and it will all be forgotten by next week.

The market is so high, traders are looking for any reason to take a profit.

This is a very,very good example on how "doing due diligence" can make a huge impact in investing.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Of course, due diligence still doesn't explain an $1,800 target for TSLA, which is up slightly for the day, but down off its highs.