Gasoline Demand -- Commentary -- July 1, 2020

From the very beginning of the blog, more than ten years ago, I have been consistent with at least one data point: I have always maintained that if I were allowed to choose only one metric to gauge the American economy -- where it's been, how it’s doing, where it seems to be headed, etc., -- that one metric would be gasoline demand. At least one reader said "diesel" would be a better indicator. Be that as it may: I feel very strongly that if allowed only one metric for the subject at hand, it would be gasoline demand.

Before I go on, look at gasoline demand posted today. Be sure to read the comments. Link here.

It certainly looks like a decent recovery.

But several big states are now seeing a new surge in corona virus cases ... and that could change everything.

It's literally a week-by-week gut check.

Ying and yang.

Push and pull.

Push and push back.

The politicians -- the governors -- will be pushed to "react" to the surge in corona cases.

But the American public is tired of the lock down. And frankly, the percentage of those Americans that won't survive economically increases each week this goes on.

My hunch: the American public will accept almost anything short of another lock down. Social distancing and masks? That's fine. But outright shutting down things again is going to be a very, very hard sell.

Back to gasoline demand.

One would think that the rate of growth in demand (the slope of the line) will now start to slow down a bit.

If the rate of growth actually increases going forward -- a steeper slope, it will speak volumes about the resiliency of the American economy.

If the rate of growth slows appreciably for more than a few weeks, that's going to be very, very concerning.

So, we'll see.

On another note, there is a real, real disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street.