Wednesday, July 8, 2020

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- July 8, 2020

EIA, link here:
  • US crude oil in inventory: 539.2 million bbls;
    • at 18% above the five-year-average, this is the highest I've seen, on a percentage basis;
    • how will shutting down the DAPL affect this;
    • the five-year average is already very "fat"
  • change week-over-week: increased by a significant 5.7 million bbls
  • refineries are operating at 77.5% of capacity; operating at historic lows
  • imports: crude oil imports averaged 7.4 million bpd which is a whopping increase of 1.4 million bpd -- more than double of what I had been seeing
    • over the past four weeks, crude oil imports had averaged about 6.6 million bpd but that average is going to trend high
    • imports are still 8.5% less than the same four-week period last year 
    • oil markets starving for heavy oil from Russia, Saudi Arabia; link here;
  • jet fuel supplied: down 57.2% same same four-week period last year
Re-balancing:
Week
Date of Report=
Change
Million Bbls Storage

Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9

Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5

Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2

Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0

Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5

Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4

Week 71
April 8, 2020
15.2
484.4

Week 72
April 15, 2020
19.2
503.6

Week 72
April 22, 2020
15.0
518.6

Week 73
April 29, 2020
9.0
527.6

Week 74
May 6, 2020
4.6
532.2

Week 75
May 13, 2020
-0.7
531.5

Week 76
May 20, 2020
-5.0
526.5

Week 77
May 28, 2020
7.9
534.4

Week 78
June 3, 2020
-2.1
532.3

Week 79
June 10, 2020
5.7
538.1

Week 80
June 17, 2020
1.2
539.3
15%
Week 81
June 24, 2020
1.4
540.7
16%
Week 82
July 1, 2020
-7.2
533.5
15%
Week 83
July 8, 2020
5.7
539.2
18%

Imports:
Crude Oil Imports




Week (week-over-week)
Date of Report
Raw Data, millions of bbls
Change (millions of bbls)
Four-week period comparison
Week 0
March 11, 2029
6.4
0.174

Week 1
March 18, 2020
6.5
0.127

Week 2
March 25, 2020
6.1
-0.422

Week 3
April 1, 2020
6.0
-0.070

Week 4
April 8, 2020
5.9
-0.173

Week 5
April 15, 2020
5.7
-0.194

Week 6
April 22, 2020
5.6
-0.700

Week 7
April 29, 2020
5.3
0.365
-19.700%
Week 8
May 6, 2020
5.7
0.410

Week 9
May 13, 2020
5.4
-0.321
-26.100%
Week 10
May 20, 2020
5.2
-0.194

Week 11
May 28, 2020
7.2
2.000
-16.400%
Week 12
June 3, 2020
6.2
-1.000
-18.300%
Week 13
June 10, 2020
6.4
0.000
-13.300%
Week 14
June 17, 2020
6.6
-0.222
-10.000%
Week 15
June 24, 2020
6.5
-0.102
-11.600%
Week 16
July 1, 2020
6.5
-0.600
-11.300%
Week 17
July 8, 2020
7.4
1.400
-8.500%

Jet fuel:
Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week


Week
Date of Report
Change
Week 0
3/7/2020
-12.80%
Week 1
3/14/2020
-12.60%
Week 2
3/21/2020
-8.90%
Week 3
3/28/2020
-16.40%
Week 4
4/4/2020
-0.22%
Week 5
4/11/2020
-39.70%
Week 6
4/18/2020
-53.60%
Week 7
4/24/2020
-61.60%
Week 8
5/1/2020
-66.60%
Week 9
5/8/2020
-68.50%
Week 10
5/15/2020
-67.90%
Week 11
May 22, 2020
-66.60%
Week 12
June 3, 2020
-68.70%
Week 13
June 10, 2020
-63.70%
Week 14
June 17, 2020
-62.30%
Week 15
June 24, 2020
-62.50%
Week 16
July 1, 2020
-60.00%
Week 17
July 8, 2020
-57.20%


2 comments:

  1. Looks like only the jet report is better. Noticed it says four week so it might be one of those four week averages that makes the graph less choppy maybe the week was closer to -50.00 for the actual week. Did we get refined product report yet?

    If you bored and want some fun, look up the US Debt Clock we are at 128% debt to GDP only country worse is greece. Also in left bottom of chart has an oil price based on the formula of money supply and produced oil, value is 101.00 per barrel.

    Here is my usual, North Dakota Oil Fund, please tithe to future value activities in your area and review your tax structure competition will be more and more brutal as the days go on, don't think small, think bold.

    Coal, get a hold of the feds, lets add some value added processes to the industry, Rare Earths.

    As always, you have the best blog around.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you for your kind words.

      1. Yes, that jet fuel number is very, very interesting, considering it's a four-week average.

      2. I avoid looking at the "US Debt Clock." Wow, amazing how no one seems to care any more. Having said that, when looking at the US Debt Clock one has to compare to that to the alternative. Assuming much of the current jump in debt is due to "saving the Covid-19 economy," without it we would be in a huge, huge depression based on generally accepted criteria for defining a depression.

      3. Greece was certainly an interesting story a few years ago, and then all of sudden, it wasn't. Amazing how the press -- in this case, CNBC -- can really push a story.

      4. Never enough hours in the day to do all the things I need / want to do.

      Delete