Ban on Venezuela Oil -- Minimal Effect On US -- February 8, 2019

I was just going to link the article at another post (which I did) and leave it at that, but it's too important to get lost in all the clutter.

Data points:

• 14 US refineries imported Venezuelan crude oil in 2018
• Venezuelan imports declined by 129,000 bopd from same period one year ago (2017)
• imports from Canada and Mexico rose by 113,000 bopd and 48,000 bopd, respectfully, from 2017
• 113,000 + 48,000 = 161,000 -- well above the 129,000 lost from Venezuela the year before
• if I recall correctly, total amount of Venezuelan oil being imported by US in most recent data, about 500,000 bopd -- a drop in the bucket compared to Canadian, Mexican, Mideast capacity to replace 
• Canada has a self-imposed cap on heavy oil production; that cap could be rescinded overnight
• Mexico's opportunity to shine
• Saudi looking at options

Over at oilprice:

The U.S. sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry and state oil firm PDVSA are unlikely to have a significant impact on the refinery runs of the U.S. refiners, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in an analysis this week.

U.S. imports of crude oil from Venezuela have been falling in recent years, and U.S. refiners have been replacing heavy crude from Venezuela from heavy crude grades from other sources, the EIA said.

Last week, the U.S. imposed sanctions on PDVSA to “help prevent further diverting of Venezuela’s assets by Maduro and preserve these assets for the people of Venezuela,” Secretary of the Treasury Steven T. Mnuchin said.

Those sanctions will essentially eliminate U.S. imports of Venezuelan crude oil as the full effects of the sanctions emerge, the EIA said, but noted that it doesn’t expect “any significant decrease in U.S. refinery runs as a result of these sanctions.”

Imports of crude oil from Venezuela are still a significant portion of the U.S. Gulf Coast imports, but they have been falling in recent years due to the collapsing Venezuelan oil production. Gulf Coast imports of Venezuelan crude oil fell to an average of 498,000 bpd between January and November 2018 from an average of 618,000 bpd in the first 11 months of 2017, the EIA said.

Out of the 14 U.S. refineries that imported crude from Venezuela last year—12 of which in the Gulf Coast—imports in January-November declined by 129,000 bpd compared with the same period in 2017. While imports from Venezuela declined, imports from Canada and Mexico to these refineries rose by 113,000 bpd and 48,000 bpd, respectively, from 2017 levels, the EIA has estimated.

“Moving forward, refineries may also choose to run lighter crude oils because transportation constraints may limit the availability of heavy crude oils,” according to the EIA.

Much more at the link, and oh, by the way, sort of explains to millennials why the need for oil will never, ever go away, no matter what they "think." In quotes, 'cause I use the word "think" loosely whenever I put "think" and "millennials" in the same sentence.