The Market, Energy, And The Political Page, T+69 -- August 8, 2018

NOG: will report 2Q18 earnings tomorrow, Thursday, before market open. Earnings call later. Should be fascinating. 

WTI: lots of talk; little action. The preponderance of stories, it seems, suggests that the price of oil is headed up, and yet, here we are, at the height of driving season, sanctions on Iran, Venezuela imploding, Canada unable to get its oil to market, and the price of WTI falls again. This morning, I see, WTI is down about 1.5%. 

Never mind: first we are told that Saudi production dropped in July, and then we are told Saudi reported record high production in July, and now this headline from oilprice: why Saudi oil production suddenly dropped. Apparently even Tsvetana is confused -- in her opening paragraph ... "as if oil market participants haven't had enough conflict market forces to digest ...."

Reports that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production surprisingly dropped in July by around 200,000 bpd from June further confounded the market and sent oil prices rising on Monday.

Last week, several surveys of OPEC’s crude oil production in July showed that the cartel is pumping at high rates, and Saudi Arabia is nearing its production record. But on Friday, Saudi sources and OPEC sources told news agencies that the Saudi oil production was not even close to record figures—and it actually dropped last month compared to June.

The Saudis pumped 10.29 million bpd in July, Saudi sources told S&P Global Platts on Friday. On the same day, two OPEC sources told Reuters that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in July was 10.29 million bpd.

According to OPEC’s secondary sources, the ones the cartel uses to calculate quotas and compliance, Saudi Arabia’s oil production had jumped in June by 405,400 bpd compared to May, to reach 10.420 million bpd.

According to a Reuters survey from last week, Saudi Arabia’s production in July was 10.65 million bpd, but exports were close to June’s levels because the Saudis increased domestic use at power plants and refineries. OPEC’s crude oil production jumped by 340,000 bpd in July from June, as Saudi Arabia pumped near-record volumes, the S&P Global Platts survey showed on Friday.

The explanation at the link is as good as any, but does it matter?

But this is really a cool story. Confirms what we've been saying at the blog with regard to Saudi Arabia:

• production gets the headline; the real story is exports
• figures coming out of the Mideast are seldom reliable
• Saudi Arabia needs to increase production in the summer (air conditioning drives electricity demand)
• Vision 2030 will increase domestic consumption
• Iran sanctions? whatever
• when it comes to crude oil, only three producers are relevant: Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Texas

Crockett's Them, Jan Hammer    Note: this 12-minute version last 5:50.

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Amazon Prime

I'm getting closer and closer to "cutting the cord": discontinuing cable television. I would miss NASCAR and the PGA. And that would be it. May now gets most of her television viewing over Amazon Prime -- it's truly incredible how much "free" content is available. But inertia is such I probably won't get around to it for another year. For significantly less money/month, I get significantly more enjoyment out of my iPhone (and I'm paying for two lines) than anything I get from cable television.

Points on credit cards really, really build up. I switch among three credit cards -- but only use cards with points. It's amazing how fast the points build up. On the Amazon card -- which I use for most purchases -- gasoline, groceries, airline -- I have enough points that I doubt I will ever have to pay for a book again. I'm not buying many books any more -- I have literally run out of shelf space and am now giving away books by the box full to one of the local schools.

I try holding off from buying more books but I finally gave in to Darwin's Fossils: The Collection That Shaped The Theory Of Evolution, Adrian Lister, c. 2018. the glossy monograph belies how incredibly good this book is. It's the kind of book (soft-cover) one might find in natural history museum bookstores.

I'm pretty much musuem'd out. I've seen all the museums I need to see. I think. I'm travel'd out -- actually. But I have to admit, every once in awhile - like almost weekly -- I will look at a map and get the urge to travel -- but as soon as I start thinking about the hassle -- beginning with TSA at the airport -- the urge quickly dissipates. Having said that, most recently -- yesterday -- looking at a map that accompanies a "pipeline" story that a reader sent me -- I think it would be interesting to visit Niagara Falls. Not to see Niagara Falls specifically, but to explore the surrounding area. In my younger days I would have walked the old Erie Canal, from Albany to Buffalo -- if that's correct.