Sand. Saudi Arabia, with great fanfare, announces it has just taken delivery of its first wind turbine (announced 9 minutes ago -- about 6:26 a.m. Central Time). Yes, one wind turbine. Wiki notes that North Dakota has twelve wind farms -- not twelve turbines, but twelve wind farms. And wiki admits the list is incomplete. The #1 problem for US helicopters flying combat missions out of Saudi Arabia during Gulf wars? Very, very fine gritty sand that got into everything, including rotors. Dust/sand and solar panels is a major challenge but being worked; that problem will pale in comparison to rotors and sand. Memo to self: google status of Saudi's one wind turbine one year from now.
Planes. Airbus -- first jets to Iran within weeks; Boeing -- deal with Boeing, preceded by months of regulatory delays, has only just been signed. Or as the Carpenters would sing, "we've only just begun."
Presidential campaign poll: before the Comey letter, Hillary polled 40.0%; after the Comey letter came out, Hillary polled 40.2%. An inconvenient truth.
Press conference: "I told Putin to 'cut it out' after DNC hack" -- President Obama. McCain: "I'm sure Putin quit hacking as soon as Obama told him to quit."
Shootings: quiet in Chicago overnight? At "Breaking News" right now --
- 20 items; 4 of those 20 items have to do with shootings in the US
- Memphis (one dead); Monaca, PA (gunshots heard); Houston (shooter opens fire inside night club, one dead); Corpus Christi (one wounded after gunshot); Kent, WA (triple shooting overnight; 1 woman dead)
- it must have been a quiet night in Chicago -- not one gunshot reported over at "Breaking News"
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
12/19/2016 | 12/19/2015 | 12/19/2014 | 12/19/2013 | 12/19/2012 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Active Rigs | 40 | 64 | 182 | 188 | 187 |
RBN Energy: stock levels whipsaw the propane market.
U.S. propane inventories rose by an impressive 55 million barrels (MMbbl) during the spring/summer/fall of 2014, and the mild winter of 2014-15 left propane stocks at well-above-normal levels the following spring. Another impactful inventory build—53 MMbbl—occurred during 2015’s March-to-November stock-building season, leaving propane stocks at a record 104 MMbbl as the freakishly mild winter of 2015-16 started.
But propane inventories grew much more slowly through the spring/summer/fall of 2016, due in part to rising exports, and—while stocks are high as this winter begins—even-higher exports and the possibility of real winter weather raise the specter of an especially big drop in stored volumes. In today’s blog we begin a series on the significance of propane inventory levels with a look at why propane stocks rose so much in the 2014 and 2015 stock-building seasons.Some data points:
- To sum up 2014, growing supply outran demand (despite a big assist from exports), and stocks built by an average of 225 Mb/d from March through October 2014.
- Moving forward another year, during the 2015 stock-building season, total propane supply averaged 1,831 Mb/d—a whopping 552 Mb/d higher than during the 2011 season. On the demand/export side, product supplied during the non-winter months was about flat with 2014 at 1,048 Mb/d, although for different reasons.
- To sum up 2015, the same thing happened again: growing supply again outran rising exports, and domestic demand was flat, resulting in a 53-MMbbl stock build.
- The 20-MMbbl difference between a big stock-build year like 2015 (53 MMbbl added to inventory from end of winter to start of winter) and a more typical stock-build year like 2011 (35 MMbbl) may seem like a lot (and it is). But when you look at it from a stock-build-per-day perspective—and you factor in the magnitude of propane demand and the much bigger role that exports have taken on—you can see how quickly things can change.
A contributor over at SeekingAlpha also does the "natural gas production and storage forecast for 2017." I have not read the article, nor did I even look at who wrote the article.
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