Friday, November 25, 2016

Friday, Day After Thanksgiving -- November 25, 2016

Trump rally continues, T+17: I count twelve (12) days of trading on Wall Street since Tuesday, November 8, 2016, election day. To the best of my knowledge, every day set a new record on the Dow 30, maybe the NASDAQ (I don't follow as closely) except for one day when there was a very, very minor pullback.The Dow 30 has already set new highs today; only a half-day of trading today.

Carrier: Now, today, a huge story continues: VP-elect Pence might be negotiating with Indiana-based Carrier to change its decision to move to Mexico. Some folks are upset with POTUS/VPOTUS getting involved with individual businesses on such matters. I guess they forget history, and they forget this is what Donald Trump campaigned for: keeping jobs in America. Somehow a VPOTUS negotiating deals which might keep jobs in America makes more sense than going to funerals of leaders of foreign countries. I'm looking forward to a visible, active vice president. I really don't recall what Joe Biden's responsibility was, or what he brought to the table, during the Obama transition back in 2008. Joe Biden, 68 years old when he became VP; Mike Pence, 57 years old. In the US House, the average age of Democrat representatives: social security eligible, 64 years of age; GOP representatives: not eligible for social security, 53 years of age.

Auto: Just breaking now, over at SeekingAlpha: US auto sales forecast to set a record in November. The other day there was a poll out showing Americans at their most positive in a decade. What do folks do when they feel positive about the economy? At least one reader suggests the US auto sales is 60% due to Trump":
  • U.S. automobile sales are expected to increase 4.2% to a record 1.37M units in November, according to a forecast from Kelley Blue Book; the previous high for the month was 1.32M units
  • this November includes two extra selling days than last year which provides an obvious boost; a high level of promotions around the Black Friday weekend is also seen as a sales driver
  • KBB's forecast by automaker: General Motors, +8.6% to 249K, Toyota, +2.9% to 195K, Ford , +0.1% to 187K, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, -4.5% to 168K, Honda, +9.1% to 126K, Nissan, +8.3% to 116K, Hyundai-Kia, +7.0% to 113K, Subaru, +15.0% to 53K, Volkswagen, +5.5% to 47.5
  • Tesla Motors , isn't running up the volume quite yet to make the KBB list, but that is expected to change in 2017
US crude oil production, 2015, from EIA:
U.S. field production of crude oil increased in 2015 for the seventh consecutive year, reaching 9.42 million barrels per day (b/d). This was the highest crude oil production level since 1972, based on final production numbers in EIA’s Petroleum Supply Annual. In 2015, production gains were highest in Texas, the Gulf of Mexico, and North Dakota, as these three regions accounted for 77% of the U.S. total increase. Although annual production for 2015 grew, monthly U.S. crude oil production has declined since April 2015. Lower oil prices led to slower development activity, and production fell to 8.74 million b/d in August 2016, the latest month for which survey data is available.

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