Jobs: same spin -- "jobless claims rise, but still near lows."
- new claims: 263,000, up from 261,000 previous week
- 4-week moving average: 263,000, down from 264,000 previous report
- bank profits; currently "soaring"
- Friday's August jobs report: mixed reporting; some sites suggest good report; others say differently
- 3Q16 GDP
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 3.5 percent on August 29, up from 3.4 percent on August 25.
The forecast for third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.5 percent to 3.8 percent after this morning's personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This was partly offset by a decline in the forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth from 0.78 percentage points to 0.65 percentage points after Friday's Advance Economic Indicators Report from the U.S. Census Bureau.For the record, my thoughts on the Fed:
- at most, "one and done"
- most "traders" have baked in a Fed rate increase sooner than later
- the announcement will create six hours of huge market swings (up or down, hard to say)
- two days after the Fed announcement, the market will have re-set
- one week after the Fed announcement, the market will be trending the same direction as before the announcement; Fed rate action will have been "forgotten"
- it still amazes me how a very small "one and done" rate increase can result in so much chatter
- by the way, headline in today's WSJ: money continues to leave EU markets (Brexit, et al); for European investors pulling money out of European markets, there are few alternatives; European equity funds have seen outflows for a record 29 consecutive weeks, amid poor earnings, struggling banks, and political risk (Great Britain, by the way, is doing fine); this duration of this outflow eclipses the 27-week run of outflows that ended in February, 2008.
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Hanjin Hangs It Up
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Hanjin Hangs It Up
Being reported everywhere: South Korea's Hanjin Shipping, one of the world's largest shipping lines, stopped taking new cargo, and US ports began turning away its ships after it filed for bankruptcy protection in Seoul. Hanjin is the majority owner of the biggest Long Beach terminal. Something tells me this story may have long legs, stretching well past the US Christmas season, 2016. I'm not sure this will impact dock workers: there is always a long line of ships waiting to get into the Long Beach port. One would think that dockworkers will be greatly affected, but hard to say.
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| 9/1/2016 | 09/01/2015 | 09/01/2014 | 09/01/2013 | 09/01/2012 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 33 | 76 | 194 | 184 | 192 |
RBN Energy: update on US condensate.
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It Never Quits
Elon Musk faces cash squeeze a Tesla, Solar City. Big story over at The Wall Street Journal.
Meanwhile, there is a very, very small update on electric rates in Nevada reported by Reuters, where the current problems apparently began (or at least became more transparent):
SolarCity Corp said on Wednesday it was disappointed with a decision by Nevada regulators to exclude the company from a proceeding to decide how existing customers would be compensated for the excess energy their rooftop solar panels sent back to the power grid.
Nevada's Public Utilities Commission had voted unanimously in February to require households with solar panels to move to a new, less generous rate structure.
Same day, later: An explosion rocked a SpaceX launch site in Florida this morning, shaking buildings several miles away. The company was preparing for a test firing, considered routine, in advance of a planned Saturday launch from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Elon Musk says Falcon 9 blast happened during fueling. First, chariots on fire, now this.NV Energy, a Nevada utility owned by billionaire investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc, asked the commission in July to maintain previous rates for customers with solar systems installed before Dec. 31, 2015. SolarCity last week requested permission to take part in the proceeding on whether or not to grandfather these customers.
In addition to everything else, the SpaceX explosion also destroyed a $200 million Facebook satellite.
Later, Israel also lost a satellite:
Israel's Space Communication Ltd said on Sunday it could seek $50 million or a free flight from Elon Musk's SpaceX after a Spacecom communications satellite was destroyed last week by an explosion at SpaceX's Florida launch site.
Officials of the Israeli company said in a conference call with reporters Sunday that Spacecom also could collect $205 million from Israel Aerospace Industries, which built the AMOS-6 satellite.
SpaceX has more than 70 missions on its manifest, worth more than $10 billion, for commercial and government customers.Let's call it a billion. MuskMelon says all-in-all about $779 million.
Later, September 5, 2016, now the WSJ weighs in -- this SpaceX story has legs, and it has huge implications for the US space program. Wow:
The explosion of a Space Exploration Technologies Corp. rocket during ground tests last week has added urgency to a key question for NASA: When will U.S. spacecraft be ready once again to carry astronauts into orbit?
The accident involving billionaire Elon Musk’s company turned its roughly 15-story-tall Falcon 9 rocket into a fireball, destroyed a commercial satellite on board and damaged the launchpad at Florida’s Cape Canaveral Air Force Station.
It is too early for investigators to conclude exactly what caused the accident or what it means for SpaceX, as the Southern California company is called, or its commercial customers, who already are fuming about launch delays.
But the incident has space experts questioning projections that U.S.-built boosters and capsules, including the Falcon 9, are likely to start ferrying U.S. crews to the international space station in less than two years.
If that forecast turns out to be too optimistic, top officials of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration might decide to reserve extra seats, costing more than $81 million each, on Russian space vehicles as a stopgap.SpaceX: too big to fail?
September 7, 2016: Tesla self-drives Dutch passenger into tree and then catches fire. Tree/Tesla, 1; passenger, 0.
September 8, 2016: SpaceX could be placed on the injured reserve list for 9 - 12 months according to its chief competitor. And that's an unbiased opinion, no doubt. LOL.
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Market
Afternoon trading: market flat to down 10 points. It looks like we're at risk of a market correction. Fewer and fewer companies hitting new highs, but then again, very few new lows. NYSE --
- new highs: 88 -- BRK-B (a big whoop);
- new lows: 18
This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
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Encana
Updates
September 2, 2016: Encana up another 4% today.
Original Post
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The Political Page
Two things are striking at the moment: one is not seeing much of Hillary lately. She is simply not on the campaign trail. And when she is heard, it is usually in "reaction" to something Trump has said or done.
The second thing that is interesting is the degree of negativity each candidate arouses. It's always been a story for both. Large numbers of Americans have difficulty with both candidates. But the "negative" ratings for Trump have been slightly more remarkable. Barbara Streisand, for example, promises to leave the US if Trump is elected president.
The USC - LA Times poll has recently shown slippage for Hillary; improvement for Trump.
With all that in mind, it was not surprising to see another poll in which Trump leads Hillary among likely voters. What was surprising was the percentage of likely voters showing support for both candidates: the total adds up to .... drum roll ... 79%. Wow. Seventy-nine percent. That leaves 21 percent undecided or favoring another candidate.
The other eye-opener: Hillary's support among "likely-to-vote" Americans: 39%. Less than 70 days until the election.
A few last thoughts:
- the debates will hit all-time viewing records
- the debates will sway the undecided; have minimal effect on the current Hillary/Trump supporters (they are both "cult" personalities)
- the huge African-American support that propelled / kept Obama into / in office will not be there for Hillary
- a lot of folks responding to these polls are "embarrassed" to say they are going to vote for Trump; not so much for those saying they would vote for Hillary
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