Some data points regarding the proxy wars between Iran and Saudi Arabia across the Mideast, in Lebanon, and from Syria to Yemen. This analysis focuses on Lebanon.
Hezbollah:
- the Shia militant group, backed by Iran, allied with Syrian al-Assad's forces
- anti-Saud
- origin, 1980's to fight Israel's occupation of south Lebanon
- remains dedicated to "liberating Palestine" -- though now deeply embroiled in the war in Syria
- "Death to Israel" being replaced by "Death to Saud"?
Saudi Arabia, to counter Iran's influence in Syria: long backed a variety of politicians and institutions in Lebanon, including the Hariris --
- former Prime Minister Saad Hariri
- his father Rafik, a former prime minister who built his fortune in Saudi Arabia; killed in massive truck bomb, in 2005
- the killing of Rafik blamed on Syria at the time
- later, a Hezbollah commander was charged with the killing
- hindsight: the killing now looks like the moment when Iran's allies began their push against Saudi influence in Lebanon -- but the kingdom was slow to recognize this, as Hezbollah chipped away at Lebanon's state institutions
- Lebanon's foreign minister, an ally of Hezbollah, abstained
- the snub infuriated Saudi Arabia; Saudi halted a $3 billion package of aid to the Lebanese army
- Saudi funds which had been pouring into Lebanon, including the media, dwindled
- Analysis:
- by leaving/abandoning Lebanon, will the void be filled by Hezbollah (Syria?)
- Saudi now realizes Hezbollah is no longer just a Lebanese faction; it is a "regional power"
- in the words of one Lebanese businessman:
"We helped build Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf, now Iran is the new El Dorado," said the businessman.
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For Iran and Valerie? This seems to be working out just fine.
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